Examining the significant factual claims made during this December 11, 2025 event, explaining what’s accurate, what’s exaggerated, and what context is missing. This analysis focuses on verifiable statements rather than subjective political opinions. Assistance from Claude AI.
For a summary of the meeting, see Trump Signs Executive Order Centralizing AI Regulation Under Federal Control.
Summary: Pattern of Exaggeration and Misleading Claims
This fact-check reveals a consistent pattern across Trump’s statements at the AI executive order signing: core elements contain factual bases, but the presentation systematically exaggerates, distorts temporal context, or omits critical nuance that would provide accurate understanding.
The “11,888 murderers” claim draws from real ICE data but misrepresents a 40-year span as recent arrivals. The “92% reduction” in drug trafficking lacks independent verification and shifts across different tellings. The auto industry statistic doesn’t match standard economic measures. The gasoline price claim conflates isolated stations with state averages. Even the “52 all-time highs” stock market claim appears significantly inflated compared to available data.
These patterns suggest audiences should approach Trump’s statistical claims with significant skepticism, seeking verification from authoritative sources before accepting them as accurate representations of reality.
Stock Market Performance: “52nd Time” Hitting All-Time Highs
Trump’s Claim: “For the 52nd time in ten months, we have an all-time high stock market.”
Verdict: The “52 times” figure appears significantly inflated. According to market data, the S&P 500 recorded approximately 50 all-time high closes in 2024 (by November 10), and roughly 20 by August 2025. While the index did hit new records on December 11, 2025, the specific “52 times in ten months” claim cannot be verified and appears to substantially overstate the number of record closes during Trump’s second term.
Context: The stock market has indeed performed well in 2025, recovering from a major crash in April 2025 that was triggered by Trump’s tariff policies. The market dropped approximately 10% in early April before a historic rally when tariffs were paused. December 11 was legitimately a record-closing day for both the Dow and S&P 500.
References:
Apollo Academy. (2024, November 10). 50 all-time highs for the S&P 500 so far this year. https://www.apolloacademy.com/50-all-time-highs-for-the-sp-500-so-far-this-year/
Stock Market Media. (2025, August 29). New highs don’t come in averages — they come in surges. https://www.stockmarketmedia.com/2025-08-29/new-highs-dont-come-averages-they-come-surges
Wikipedia. (2025). 2025 stock market crash. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_stock_market_crash
Immigration Claims: “11,888 Murderers” and Venezuela
Trump’s Claim: “We had 11,888 murderers come into our country. Many of them are from Venezuela.”
Verdict: Misleading. Trump’s figure of “11,888 murderers” appears to be a rounded-down version of ICE data showing 13,099 noncitizens convicted of homicide on the agency’s “non-detained docket.” However, this claim is highly misleading in multiple critical ways.
What Trump Got Wrong:
The core misrepresentation is temporal: this data spans 40 years, not just the Biden-Harris administration. According to ICE’s own budget documents, 405,786 convicted criminals were already on the non-detained docket as of June 5, 2021—less than five months into the Biden administration—meaning the vast majority predated Biden’s tenure. Additionally, 368,000 convicted criminals were on this docket in August 2016, before Trump’s first term even began.
The second major distortion involves the word “into.” Trump claims these individuals “came into our country,” implying they recently crossed the border and were released. In reality, “non-detained” doesn’t mean “roaming free.” Many of these individuals are incarcerated in federal, state, or local prisons serving sentences for their crimes—they’re simply not in ICE custody specifically. ICE tracks their cases because they face eventual deportation proceedings once they complete their criminal sentences.
The Department of Homeland Security explained that the docket “includes individuals who entered the country over the past 40 years or more, the vast majority of whose custody determination was made long before this Administration.”
What’s Actually True:
ICE data from July 2024 does show 13,099 noncitizens with homicide convictions on the non-detained docket, along with 1,845 facing pending homicide charges. This represents a real tracking challenge for immigration enforcement. However, ICE is statutorily required not to release most homicide convicts from custody, and those not in ICE detention are often serving sentences in other facilities.
References:
ABC News. (2024, September 28). Fact-checking Trump’s migrant murderers claims. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fact-checking-trumps-migrant-murderers-claims/story?id=114364781
CBS News. (2024, September 27). Trump and allies mischaracterize data on immigrants with criminal convictions. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/immigrants-criminal-convictions-trump-ice/
NBC News. (2024, September 28). More than 13,000 immigrants convicted of homicide are living outside immigration detention in the U.S., ICE says. https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/13000-immigrants-convicted-homicide-living-freely-us-ice-data-rcna173125
Newsweek. (2024, September 28). Fact check: Did Biden-Harris let in 13,000 migrant ‘murderers’? https://www.newsweek.com/migrant-crime-murder-fact-check-harris-biden-trump-1964795
U.S. Department of Homeland Security. (2023). U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement fiscal year 2023 budget justification.
Drug Trafficking: “Down 92 Percent”
Trump’s Claim: “If you look at the drug traffic, drug traffic by sea is down 92 percent.”
Verdict: Unverifiable and likely exaggerated. Trump has made shifting claims about drug trafficking reductions—citing 85%, 91%, 92%, and 94% in different statements over recent weeks—all attributed to U.S. military strikes on boats suspected of carrying drugs. However, no independent verification of these percentages has been provided, and the administration has not produced evidence that the targeted boats actually contained drugs.
What’s Known:
The U.S. military has conducted approximately 22 strikes on vessels in the Caribbean Sea and Pacific Ocean since September 2025, killing at least 83-87 people according to various reports. The Trump administration attributes these operations to “Operation Southern Spear,” which has deployed the USS Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier group, multiple destroyers, and approximately 15,000 troops to the region.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated at a December 2 Cabinet meeting that the strikes have created deterrence, saying “it’s hard to find boats to strike right now.” However, this claim about difficulty finding targets doesn’t necessarily substantiate the 92% reduction figure.
Major Problems:
The shifting percentages (85% to 94% depending on when Trump speaks) suggest imprecision rather than careful data tracking. More significantly, members of Congress from both parties have questioned not only the effectiveness but also the legality of these strikes, noting that the administration hasn’t provided evidence the boats were actually carrying drugs, and those aboard were killed without opportunity to prove innocence or surrender.
Legal experts and Latin American governments have characterized the campaign as extrajudicial killings. Critics note that Trump “tends to make up or exaggerate numbers in order to boost his reputation,” according to reporting from TRT World.
References:
Al Jazeera. (2025, November 28). Trump says US will stop Venezuelan drug trafficking ‘by land’ soon. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/11/28/trump-says-us-will-soon-stop-venezuelan-drug-trafficking-by-land
CNN. (2025, November 27). Trump says US land action against alleged drug trafficking networks in Venezuela will start ‘very soon’. https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/27/politics/trump-says-us-land-action-in-venezuela-very-soon
The Washington Times. (2025, December 2). Donald Trump boasts a 91% reduction in drug boat trafficking since military strikes began. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/dec/2/donald-trump-boasts-91-reduction-drug-boat-trafficking-since-military/
TRT World. (2025, December). Trump claims strikes cut sea-borne drug flow to US by 94 percent amid legal concerns. https://www.trtworld.com/article/b5b3d6d683ab
Auto Industry: “56 Percent Left Our Country”
Trump’s Claim: “We had — our auto industry was decimated. 56 percent of our auto industry left our country over the years.”
Verdict: Misleading and lacks clear basis. Trump’s “56 percent” figure doesn’t align with standard measures of U.S. auto industry decline, and it’s unclear what specific metric he’s referencing.
What the Data Actually Shows:
The U.S. manufacturing sector, including auto manufacturing, has experienced significant decline over decades, but not in the way Trump describes. Since 2000, the United States has lost approximately 5 million manufacturing jobs overall. The auto industry specifically lost substantial employment, particularly during the 2000s and the 2008 financial crisis when GM and Chrysler required federal bailouts.
One source mentions that by August 2009, the rest of the U.S. (outside Michigan) “was left with 56 percent of its peak employment”—but this refers to employment retention during the recession, not the industry “leaving” the country. Between 2000 and 2010, approximately 56,190 factories of all types closed (an average of 15 per day), but this isn’t specifically about auto plants.
Motor vehicle manufacturing has indeed shifted production to Mexico and other countries, particularly after NAFTA’s 1994 implementation. However, the percentage of the auto industry that has “left” is difficult to quantify as Trump suggests, since the industry includes manufacturing, design, supply chains, and sales that remain domestically while assembly has increasingly moved offshore.
Under Trump’s first administration (2017-2020), auto manufacturing jobs actually declined every year, even before the pandemic. Domestic auto production has been on a steady multi-decade decline with brief exceptions during Obama’s first term.
References:
CNN Money. (2016, March 29). The U.S. has lost 5 million manufacturing jobs since 2000. https://money.cnn.com/2016/03/29/news/economy/us-manufacturing-jobs/
FactCheck.org. (2024, September). Trump’s problematic claims on the auto industry. https://www.factcheck.org/2024/09/trumps-problematic-claims-on-the-auto-industry/
IndustryWeek. (2016). Who is killing American manufacturing? https://www.industryweek.com/talent/article/21982448/who-is-killing-american-manufacturing
Investment Monitor. (n.d.). Investigating the decline: Who killed US manufacturing. https://www.investmentmonitor.ai/manufacturing/who-killed-us-manufacturing/
Gasoline Prices: “$1.99 in a Couple of States”
Trump’s Claim: “Gasoline is hitting now $1.99 in a couple of states.”
Verdict: Partially true but misleading. Individual gas stations in some states have prices at or below $1.99, but no state averages are at this level.
What’s Actually Happening:
As of early December 2025, the national average gasoline price is approximately $2.94-$3.00 per gallon, the lowest since May 2021. According to GasBuddy and other tracking services, some individual gas stations in at least four states—including Oklahoma, Colorado, and Texas—are selling regular gasoline at $1.99 per gallon or lower, with some Colorado stations as low as $1.69.
However, state averages tell a different story. Oklahoma has the lowest state average at $2.37-$2.41 per gallon, which is 19-21% higher than the $1.99 Trump cites. Colorado averages $2.48, and Texas $2.50. California has the highest average at $4.45-$4.53 per gallon.
Trump’s statement conflates isolated station pricing with broader state averages, creating an impression that gas is generally available at $1.99 when it’s only available at select stations. The decline in gas prices is real—driven by strong refinery output, lower crude oil prices, and softer seasonal demand—but the extent Trump suggests is exaggerated.
It’s worth noting that while gasoline prices have fallen, residential electricity prices rose more than 10% during the first eight months of 2025, partially offsetting consumer energy cost relief.
References:
AAA. (2025, December 11). Fuel prices. https://gasprices.aaa.com/state-gas-price-averages/
CBS News. (2025, December). Gas prices dip below $3 a gallon, the lowest since 2021. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gas-prices-december-2025-lowest-since-2021/
CBS News. (2025, December). Trump says U.S. prices are “coming down tremendously.” Here’s what the data shows. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-speech-affordability-fact-check-inflation-data/
Choose Energy. (2025, December). Cost of driving by state. https://www.chooseenergy.com/data-center/cost-of-driving-by-state/
LendingTree. (2025, December 9). US gas prices decrease by as much as 13% — see where your state stacks up. https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-cards/study/us-gas-prices/
White House. (2025, December 8). Gas prices plunge to new multi-year low — and they’re trending lower. https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/12/gas-prices-plunge-to-new-multi-year-low-and-trending-lower/