One-sentence summary: A new theory known as the “Mar-a-Lago Accord” claims Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff policies are part of a deliberate master plan to reshape global trade and finance, but experts argue it is deeply flawed, unsupported by Trump’s actions, and potentially disastrous.
A theory gaining traction in political and financial circles suggests that Donald Trump’s erratic tariff policy is actually part of a calculated grand strategy known as the “Mar-a-Lago Accord.” This supposed master plan envisions a bold global reconfiguration: Trump’s tariffs are meant to shock other countries into negotiating a massive agreement that would weaken the U.S. dollar, bring foreign investment to American manufacturing, convert U.S. debt into long-term interest-free bonds, and restructure military alliances. The idea is that Trump’s unpredictability and willingness to inflict economic pain would compel countries to capitulate to U.S. demands in exchange for tariff relief and military support.
Originating in a paper by economist Stephen Miran and supported by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the theory has been likened by supporters to a geopolitical shift on the scale of the 1944 Bretton Woods agreement. It has found some cautious believers on Wall Street and among economic commentators, who argue that there may be internal logic behind Trump’s erratic economic moves.
However, the theory has glaring contradictions. Critics point out that weakening the dollar would normally require foreign countries to sell U.S. debt, which would raise interest rates and make the national debt harder to manage-an outcome the plan supposedly tries to avoid. Moreover, Trump has not publicly endorsed or even mentioned the Mar-a-Lago Accord. Instead, his actions-such as imposing tariffs on Mexico and Canada, countries with little influence over the dollar-appear random and counterproductive. His erratic tariff decisions, including abrupt reversals and exemptions, have confused even his own administration and sparked international backlash.
Economists like Steven Kamin argue that the theory doesn’t hold up even in theory, and the plan’s reliance on foreign cooperation in giving the U.S. interest-free loans is implausible. The proposed strategy also risks unraveling the global financial system, destabilizing alliances, and triggering a financial crisis by undermining confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury market.
Ultimately, the Mar-a-Lago Accord seems more like a retroactive justification for Trump’s unpredictable economic behavior than a real policy blueprint. It illustrates a broader desire among Trump’s supporters to ascribe coherence to his impulsive decisions, even when evidence suggests otherwise.
Karma, Rogé. “The Wild Trump Theory Making the Rounds on Wall Street.” The Atlantic, 24 Mar. 2025, www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/03/qanon-tariffs/682144.
Key takeaways:
- The “Mar-a-Lago Accord” posits that Trump’s tariffs are part of a calculated global economic strategy.
- The plan aims to weaken the dollar, bring foreign investment, restructure U.S. debt, and redefine global alliances.
- Despite gaining attention on Wall Street, the theory has major internal contradictions and lacks practical feasibility.
- Trump has never publicly endorsed the plan and continues to act inconsistently with its supposed goals.
- Critics argue the theory resembles economic fantasy more than viable policy and could cause global instability if enacted.
Most important quotations:
- “The current chaos is as much a feature as a bug.” – Gillian Tett, Financial Times
- “This one doesn’t even add up in theory.” – Steven Kamin, economist
- “There is a path … but it is narrow, and will require careful planning, precise execution, and attention to steps to minimize adverse consequences.” – Stephen Miran
- “The dollar might indeed fall, but not in a way that Trump would like.” – Kamin and Mark Sobel
Word count (summary): 647
Word count (original article): 1,977
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