Voice For Liberty

Tag: Economic development

  • Clusters as economic development in Kansas

    Is the promotion by Kansas government of industry clusters as economic development good for the future of Kansas?

    The formula for creating these clusters is always the same: Pick a hot industry, build a technology park next to a research university, provide incentives for businesses to relocate, add some venture capital and then watch the magic happen. But, as I have noted before, the magic never happens. Most of the top-down cluster-development projects in the United States and around the world have died a slow death in relative obscurity. Politicians who held the press conferences to claim credit for advancing science and technology are long gone. Management consultants have cashed in their big checks. Real estate barons have reaped fortunes, and taxpayers are left holding the bag.

    The author is Vivek Wadhwa, writing in the Washington Post article Industry clusters: The modern-day snake oil.

    Wadwha is criticizing Harvard professor Michael Porter’s cluster theory, which he says has to do with how “geographic concentrations of interconnected companies, specialized suppliers, and service providers gave certain industries a productivity and cost advantage.” Wardwha describes the magical potential: “[Porter’s] legions of followers postulated that by bringing these ingredients together into a ‘cluster,’ regions could artificially ferment innovation. They just needed to build the right infrastructure and bring together chosen industries.”

    It’s something that Wichita and Kansas has embraced. We hear — continually — about the importance of the aviation cluster in south-central Kansas and its importance to our state’s economy. Talk of this becomes particularly intense each time the major aviation companies and their suppliers approach local governments for handouts in the form of economic development incentives.

    Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer wants to create a cluster of wind energy companies in and around Wichita, and he has traveled as far as Germany in this quest.

    Kansas Governor Sam Brownback has embraced the cluster concept. In June, Governor Brownback promoted one such cluster, saying “As a state, we must formulate strategies to achieve a successful economic cluster around the animal health sector.”

    Other clusters the state wants to promote include life sciences, tourism, and, as aleady mentioned, aviation. Brownback has held summits on most of these topics. A presentation titled Kansas Competitiveness: State and Cluster Economic Performance, billed as “Prepared for Governor Sam Brownback” in February by Harvard’s Porter analyzes Kansas and its business clusters.

    Evidence that backs up Wardwha’s criticism of clusters is found in the recent paper When local interaction does not suffice: Sources of firm innovation in urban Norway (Rune Dahl Fitjar and Andrés Rodríguez-Pose). Summarizing it, Wardwha wrote: “The study found that regional and national clusters are ‘irrelevant for innovation.’”

    In particular, the paper states in its introduction: “The results indicate that firm innovation in urban Norway is mainly driven by global pipelines, rather than local interaction. The most innovative — both in terms of basic product innovation and radical product and process innovation — firms are those with a greater diversity of international partners. Local and even national interaction seems to be irrelevant for innovation.”

    And from the conclusion: “Recent analyses of clusters and agglomeration have looked for the sources of innovation of firms in the combination of the multiple interactions of firms within the region and in the connections of certain firms in the region with the outside world. The story emerging was one of complementarity. Local interaction took place without much effort through frequent face-to-face interaction in high trust environments, while global pipelines implied a conscious and often costly attempt by individual firms to engage with external actors in order to generate greater innovation and reap economic benefits. … There is a dearth of analyses that have systematically addressed whether the complementarity of these two types of interaction holds across a large number of firms. This has been the main aim of this paper, which has looked at the sources of innovation of 1604 firms across the five main urban agglomerations in Norway. The picture which emerges from the analysis does not conform to that generally stemming from the theoretical literature and from case-studies.”

    Is the promotion and pursuit of business and industry clusters a misguided effort by Kansas politicians like Brewer and Brownback and the state’s economic development officials? To the extent that promotion of certain industries means the state is using a top-down, “active investor” approach to economic development — rather than being the caretaker of a competitive platform that encourages as much business experimentation as possible — yes, it is misguided. We run the risk of all the problems described in the opening quotation appearing in this article.

  • Despite subsidy program, Wichita flights are declining

    Supporters of the Kansas Affordable Airfares Program are proud of the program’s success. But looking at the statistics uncovers a troubling trend that is obscured by the facts used to promote the program.

    The program provides taxpayer-funded grants to airlines so that they will provide low-cost service to cities in Kansas. The thought is that by propping up a discount carrier, other airlines will be forced to reduce their fares. By far the largest consumer of these subsidies is Airtran Airways in Wichita. For this goal, the program has worked, probably. We have to say “probably” because we can never know what would have happened in the absence of this program. But it is quite likely that fares are at least somewhat lower than would they would be otherwise.

    But lower fares is not the only measure of success. The number of available flights is a measure, too, and a very important one for many people.

    The problem is that subsidy boosters state that the number of flights has increased. For example, on a page that is part of the Sedgwick County official website, the claim is made that the affordable airfares program “offers more flights to both east and west coasts.”

    In the agenda packet for the July meeting of the Regional Economic Area Partnership of South Central Kansas — that’s the body that administers the affordable airfares program — board members were presented this information: “In presenting its proposal Sedgwick County provided evidence documenting that low-fare air service to eastern and western U.S. destinations through Wichita Mid-Continent Airport had been successful in providing more air flight options, more competition for air travel, and affordable air fares for Kansas.”

    Later that document describes selection criteria for deciding which airlines will receive grants. The first goal listed is “more air flight options,” which is further described as the number of scheduled, daily nonstop and one-stop flights.

    Certainly enticing a new airline carrier to town by paying them a subsidy increases the number of flights that carrier will offer, as before the subsidy, they offered none. But the experience of Wichita shows that the affordable airfares program is causing an overall loss of flight options in Wichita.

    It’s true that when the airline subsidy started, funded at first only by the City of Wichita, the number of flights departing from Wichita increased. That’s not remarkable. That was the stated goal of the program, and if we paid AirTran a subsidy and they didn’t provide flights, that would have been a problem.

    But the history of flights before the subsidy program is not the only important measure, although supporters of the program like the Wichita Eagle’s Rhonda Holman make use of it when she recently wrote this about the program and an audit of it conducted by Kansas Legislative Division of Post Audit: “Even so, the audit put the return on the state’s investment at $2.32-to-$1, cited 38 percent growth in passenger counts between 2000 and 2009, and said ‘fares have decreased, while the number of passengers and the number of available flights have increased.’”

    Yes, the number of available flights increased upon the arrival of AirTran and the start of the subsidy payments. But the trend since 2005 — about the time the state got involved in the funding and the program matured — is not encouraging. As shown in the accompanying charts, that trend is continually on a downward trajectory. (The charts show two different sets of data for the number of departures from Wichita.)

    The decline in the number of available flights is important, because for some travelers, particularly business travelers, the availability of a seat on an airplane at any price is more important than being able to book a cheap flight a month in advance.

    People may disagree about the wisdom of the airline subsidy program. But we need to recognize that the availability of flights to and from Wichita is declining, and has been declining for a number of years.

    We often hear of the unintended consequences of government intervention. This is such an example. Compounding the problem is the refusal of the program’s supporters — both within and outside of government — to recognize it, at least publicly.

    Monthly departures from WichitaMonthly departures from the Wichita airport
    Number of daily departures from the Wichita airport by air carriers (excluding weekends)Number of daily departures from the Wichita airport by air carriers (excluding weekends)

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Monday July 11, 2011

    TIF in Louisiana. Randal O’Toole recently examined the use of tax increment financing in Louisiana. He finds this: “Property tax TIFs are limited to that portion of property taxes that are not already obligated to some specific purpose — and most property taxes are so obligated, so most if not all Louisiana TIFs rely on sales and hotel taxes instead.” This is different from Kansas, where all the property tax, except for the usually small base, benefits the TIF district exclusively. … He describes sales-tax TIFs, which we in Kansas call community improvement districts or CID. While describing them as the least objectionable form of TIF, he notes problems: Why don’t stores just raise their prices? Stores that charge extra sales tax don’t have warning signage. And: “In the end, TIF is still just a way for elected officials to hand out favors to selected developers and other special interests. There is no reason to think that cities in Louisiana that use TIF grow any faster than ones that do not. Instead, all the TIFs do is shuffle new developments around, favoring certain property owners in the TIF districts over owners outside of the TIF districts. TIF may even reduce growth as developers who don’t get TIF subsidies may decide to build elsewhere where they won’t have to compete against subsidized developments.” … All these warnings have been raised before the Wichita City Council. … California has new legislation designed to kill redevelopment districts there, which are like TID districts in Kansas. … The full article is A Different Kind of TIF.

    Overland Park may see tax hike. Ben Hodge reports that Overland Park, the second largest city in Kansas and the largest in Johnson County, may increase its property tax rates. Hodge quotes a Kansas City Star editorial: “One plan from [Overland Park City Manager Bill] Ebel would boost the city’s mill levy by 46 percent and bring in more than $10 million a year in new revenue. The other option, a 41 percent increase, would create an extra $9 million annually.” To which Hodge replies: “So, those are the innovative ideas of today’s Overland Park Council: either a 41% increase, or else a 46% tax increase.” … The Overland Park Chamber of Commerce supports the proposal, which is simply more evidence of the decline of local chambers of commerce. … Hodge’s article is Between a Rock and a Tax Hike.

    Medicinal cannibis to be topic. This Friday’s (July 15th) meeting of the Wichita Pachyderm Club features Dr. Jon Hauxwell, a physician from Hays, speaking on “Medicinal Cannabis.” The public is welcome and encouraged to attend Wichita Pachyderm meetings. For more information click on Wichita Pachyderm Club. Upcoming speakers: On July 22, Steve Anderson, Director of the Budget for Kansas. On July 29, Dennis Taylor, Secretary, Kansas Department of Administration and “The Repealer” on “An Overview of the Office of the Repealer.”

    Employment on a long slow, slide. Wichita’s Malcolm Harris takes a look at the dismal employment numbers from last week. But, there is some better news for Wichita regarding airplane orders.

    We already know it’s hot in Wichita. But now here’s proof. The Weather Channel ranks Wichita as fourth hottest city in the nation — and that’s based on weather, not economic growth or something really desirable. Wichita is also ranked as “Midwest” hottest city.

    Pursuing happiness, not politics. That’s the title of the prologue to the recently-published book The Declaration of Independents: How Libertarian Politics Can Fix What’s Wrong with America by Nick Gillespie and Matt Welch, both of Reason, the libertarian magazine of “Free Minds and Free Markets.” So far, the prologue is all I’ve read, but I can tell — okay, I already knew — that these guys get it. Here’s what I mean: “In 2011, we do not equate happiness with politics; the mere juxtaposition of the words feels obscene. And for good reason: Politics, John Adams’s great-grandson Henry famously observed, ‘has always been the systematic organization of hatreds.’ Every election cycle — and we are always in an election cycle — we are urged to remember that deep down inside we really despise the opposing gang of crooks. We hate their elite (or Podunk) ways, their socialist (or fascist) economics, their reliance on shadowy billionaires with suspect agendas. In a world where mutual gains from trade have lifted a half billion people out of poverty in just the past half decade, politics is one of the last remaining zero-sum games of I win, you lose, where the victor gets to spend everyone else’s money in ways that appall the vanquished, until they switch places again after the next election. We instinctively know that our tax dollars aren’t being spent efficiently; the proof is in the post office, or the permitting offices at city hall, or the neighborhood school. We roll our eyes when President Barack Obama announces a new national competitiveness initiative in his State of the Union address just five years after George W. Bush announced a new American Competitiveness Initiative in his, or when each and every president since Richard Milhous Nixon swears chat this time we’re gonna kick that foreign-oil habit once and for all. And yet, the political status quo keeps steering the Winnebago of state further and further into the ditch.”

    More ‘Economics in One Lesson.’ Tonight (Monday July 11th) Americans For Prosperity Foundation is sponsoring a continuation of the DVD presentation of videos based on Henry Hazlitt’s classic work Economics in One Lesson. The event is Monday from 7:00 pm to 8:30 pm at the Lionel D. Alford Library located at 3447 S. Meridian in Wichita. The library is just north of the I-235 exit on Meridian. The event’s sponsor is Americans for Prosperity, Kansas. For more information on this event contact John Todd at john@johntodd.net or 316-312-7335, or Susan Estes, AFP Field Director at sestes@afphq.org or 316-681-4415.

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Sunday July 10, 2011

    Wichita city council. This week the Wichita City Council considers these major items of interest: Capps Manufacturing, Inc. seeks to avoid paying property tax on an expansion of its plant. Under the city’s Economic Development Exemption (EDX) Program, the company, according to city documents, is eligible to avoid paying 80 percent of the property tax on the expansion for a period of ten years. The documents state: “Based on the 2010 mill levy, the estimated taxable value of exempted property for the first full year is approximately $38,387.” I believe this is incorrect; that figure is the amount of property tax that would be paid on the value of the property. If the council approves, Capps will be forgiven 80 percent of that tax — nearly $31,000 per year.

    Bombardier Learjet seeks issuance of $2,564,275 in Industrial Revenue Bonds. The benefit to the company is that the property purchased with bond proceeds is exempt from property taxes, which is estimated by the city to be worth $76,966 per year in taxes that Bombardier won’t be required to pay. Also, property purchased with bond proceeds isn’t subject to the sales tax. If all the items being purchased are taxable, this means Bombardier could escape paying $187,192 in sales tax. Under the IRB program, the city is not the lender and does not guarantee that bonds will be repaid.

    There will be a public hearing for a facade improvement program loan for a building at 1525 E. Douglas to house GLMV Architecture. This action will loan $500,000 for the purposes of sprucing up the outside of the building, with that amount, plus interest, to be paid back in the form of special assessments collected with the regular property tax. It’s similar to the special assessment financing used in new housing developments, but here applied to existing structures. Interestingly, the city documents proclaim a “gap,” meaning that “applicants show a financial need for public assistance in order to complete the project, based on the owner’s ability to finance the project and assuming a market-based return on investment.” In other words, private financing was not available, so the city steps in, and we have another example of the city investing in money-losing projects. Although it is likely the city will be paid back, the program also includes a $30,000 grant for this project. That, of course, is a gift from Wichita taxpayers made by the city council, and will not be paid back. In addition to assistance from Wichita and its taxpayers, GLMV also benefits from state and federal taxpayers, too. Its application for historic preservation tax credits has been approved. Under the state program, GLMV is eligible for tax credits of 25 percent of the $2 million cost of the project, so Kansas taxpayers will be giving this company $500,000.

    The council will be asked to receive and file the city manager’s budget. … As always, the agenda packet is available at Wichita city council agendas.

    Kansas news media criticized. Kansas University political science professor Burdett Loomis takes a look at Kansas news media, particularly its coverage of the Brownback administration, and finds it lacking. In his listing of Kansas news media, Loomis misses a few outlets, namely Kansas Watchdog and Kansas Reporter. This is in contrast to his characterization of Dome on the Range as a “serious attempt.” This is laughable. Dome on the Range, written anonymously, exists primarily to poke fun at conservatives, many times for reasons that have little to do with serious issues of public policy. After several posts in March, DOTR had no posts in May, and one each in June and July. This, combined with anonymity — meaning the author is not willing to be accountable — doesn’t qualify as serious. But DOTR meshes well with Loomis’ personal politics, and Kansas Watchdog and Reporter are sponsored by conservative groups. … Loomis is correct in his assessment of the Kansas Health Institute as a valuable resource for reporting. … The op-ed is at Insight Kansas: Covering Kansas Conservatism.

    The revolving door. Between government and lobbying, that is. Latest example: The Lawrence Journal-World through the Associated Press reports that Michael White, Chief of Staff for Kansas Senate President Steve Morris, is becoming a lobbyist for ITC Great Plains, an electric transmission company. The article says that White will oversee the company’s lobbying in Kansas and Oklahoma.

  • Kansas jobs creation numbers in perspective

    This week the administration of Kansas Governor Sam Brownback announced job creation figures that, on the surface, sound like good news. But before we celebrate too much, we need to place the job numbers in context and look at the larger picture, specifically whether these economic development wins are good for the Kansas economy.

    The governor’s office announced that since January 10th, almost exactly one-half year ago, the Brownback administration is taking credit for creating 3,163 jobs. These jobs, according to the governor’s office, are in companies that are moving to Kansas or expanding their current operations. Some of the jobs, like those in the recently-announced Mars Chocolate plant to be built in Topeka, won’t start for perhaps two years.

    To place this number on an annual basis, extrapolating to a full year, we get 6,326 jobs created during the first year of Brownback’s term.

    That sound like a lot of jobs. But we need to place that number in context. To do so, I gathered some figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in particular figures for the gross number of jobs created in the private sector. According to BLS, “Gross job gains are the sum of increases in employment from expansions at existing units and the addition of new jobs at opening units.” In other words, jobs created — just like the governor’s definition.

    Looking at the numbers, we find that for the years 2000 to 2009, the Kansas economy created gross jobs in the private sector at the average rate of 293,335 per year. Of course, jobs are lost, too. In Kansas, again for 2000 to 2009, there was a net loss of 61,394 jobs in the private sector. Not a good number.

    Each year, then, many jobs are created and lost, nearly 300,000 per year in Kansas. This illustrates the dynamic nature of the economy. Each year many jobs are created, and many are lost. Even in 2009 — a recession year — the Kansas economy created 232,717 jobs in the private sector. That same year 294,111 jobs were lost. But in most years, the number of jobs created is pretty close to the number of jobs lost.

    Kansas job gains and lossesKansas job gains and losses

    Now we have context. If we compare the 6,326 jobs (the extrapolated annual rate) the state created through its economic development efforts to the average number of private sector jobs created each year, we find that number to be 2.2 percent.

    If we use a recession year (2009) figure for private sector job creation, the state’s efforts amount to 2.7 percent of the jobs created by the private sector economy.

    These numbers, I would say, are small. About one of 40 jobs created in Kansas is created through the efforts of the state’s economic development machinery. This assumes that these jobs would not have been created without government intervention, and I think that’s something we can’t assume one hundred percent.

    These jobs that Brownback takes credit for come at great cost. In the case of Mars, the incentive package is reported to be worth $9 million, or $45,000 for each of the 200 people to be initially hired. I haven’t asked the Department of Commerce for a full rundown of the incentives offered, but in my experience the press releases and news stories based on them understate the full cost of the incentives.

    But in any case, the incentives used by the state’s economic development efforts have costs. Some require the direct expenditure of state funds.

    Some incentives require that the state spend money through the tax system in the form of tax credits. These expenditures made through the tax system have the same fiscal impact on the state’s budget as if the legislature appropriated funds and wrote a check for the amount of the tax credit.

    Other incentives require that the state give up a claim to tax revenue that it would otherwise collect. This means that other taxpayers must make up the difference, unless the state were to reduce spending.

    The cost of these incentives is born by the taxpayers of the state of Kansas. This cost is a negative drag on jobs that would have been created or retained in companies that don’t receive incentives. The Brownback administration knows this, although it doesn’t recognize this job loss when it trumpets its accomplishments in creating new jobs through targeted economic development incentives. One of the major initiatives of Brownback is to reduce Kansas taxes, particularly the personal and corporate income tax, in order to grow the Kansas economy. The governor — correctly — recognizes that low taxes are good for economic growth.

    The governor also needs to recognize that targeted economic development incentives have a cost. That cost is paid in the form of taxes that someone else pays. That cost leads to foregone economic activity, and that leads to lost jobs.

    While the state’s wins in job creation are easy to see — there are government employees paid to make sure we’re aware of them — the lost jobs, however, are spread throughout the state. These job losses don’t often take the form of a large — or even small — business closing or moving to another state, although sometimes it does.

    Instead, the job loss occurs in dribs and drabs across the state. A restaurant manager finds his store is not as busy as last month, so he lets a server go. A small retail outlet finds it can’t quite keep up with its overhead, so it shuts down. These events don’t often make news. The jobs lost are difficult to detect — nearly invisible — although the cumulative impact is very real.

    Instead of relying on traditional, targeted economic development efforts, Kansas needs to follow the advice of Dr. Art Hall. He recommends policies to encourage as much business experimentation as possible. These policies, basically, call for low taxes for all business firms. Then, it is through markets, not the government’s economic development officials, that successful and productive firms are identified.

    Portions of Dr. Hall’s advice was incorporated in Governor Brownback’s economic development plan. Specifically, page 10 of the plan contains this language: “Over the decades, Kansas has enacted a variety of tax policies intended to advance economic development. Many of them provide a meaningful economic incentive to make new investments and create new jobs. Almost all of the policies provide a meaningful incentive to a small number of worthy businesses to the exclusion of tens of thousands of other worthy businesses. The initiatives in this plan seek to end the exclusion. They begin the process of fulfilling the vision that every business matters; they seek to replace the old vision of ‘targeting’ with a new vision of ‘dynamism.’”

    It’s time that the governor and his administration apply this advice. That’s going to be hard to do. The crowing over the Mars deal — the very type of targeted economic development “win” that the plan criticizes — shows that politicians love to be seen as actively pursuing and creating jobs. A dynamic, free market-based job-creating economy requires that politicians and bureaucrats keep their hands off — something that goes against their very nature.

  • Economist: Kansas must improve its competitive position

    Last week the American Legislative Exchange Council released the fourth edition of Rich States, Poor States: The ALEC-Laffer Economic Competitiveness Index. This is an important study by authors Arthur B. Laffer, Stephen Moore, and Jonathan Williams that identifies states that use “best practices to enable states to drive economic growth, create jobs, and improve the standard of living for their citizens.” On Friday Williams was in Wichita and spoke to a group of business and political leaders at an event sponsored by Kansas Policy Institute and Wichita Independent Business Association.

    Williams said that there is reason for optimism in Kansas, but the news is not all good for our state. ALEC calculates economic outlook rankings, which is a “forecast based on a state’s current standing in 15 policy variables, each of which is influenced directly by state lawmakers through the legislative process, looking at states’ forecast for growth. In this ranking, Kansas fell from 25th to 27th among the 50 states in one year. A lot of this, Williams said, was due to the statewide sales tax increase of one cent per dollar which took effect on July 1, 2010. That will “leave a mark on competitiveness,” he added.

    Williams praised a bill in the Kansas Legislature this year which would have used increases in tax revenue to buy down the income tax rate. That bill, SB 1, known as the March to Economic Growth Act, passed the House of Representatives but did not advance out of committee in the Senate. This bill was important, Williams said, as one of the key findings of the Rich States, Poor States report is how important low income taxes are for economic growth.

    Kansas has a choice to make, Williams told the audience. Kansas could become a growth state like Texas, which has gained four Congressional seats over the last ten years. (Kansas has four seats. States gain Congressional seats when they grow in population more rapidly than other states.) Also, according to co-author Stephen Moore, Texas has created 40 percent of all jobs created during the recent economic recovery. Moore attributes part of Texas’ growth to having no personal income tax and living within its means.

    The other course is for Kansas to become accustomed to its mediocre, middle-of-the-pack ranking. But we may not want to live with the loss or prosperity that comes with this ranking. Williams cited research by KPI that show that Kansas was the only state to have a net loss of private sector jobs over the last year. All other states had at least some job growth.

    In ranking states on economic outlook, three of our our neighboring states — Colorado (number 6), Missouri (9), and Oklahoma (14) are in the top 15 states. This, said Williams, makes Kansas’ mediocre ranking of 27th look even worse.

    Williams outlined some principles that lead to effective tax policy. First, taxes ought to be simple. Complicated tax systems require much effort and cost to comply with, and are a deadweight loss to the economy.

    Transparency is important. It should be clear who is paying the tax. Williams said that business taxes violate this principle, as businesses pass on taxes to customers, employees, and investors.

    Neutrality — not using tax policy to select winners and lowers — is important, as government has a terrible record of success, and it leads to corruption in the manner of choosing winners.

    Predictability is important, and institutional controls like the taxpayer bill of rights or a super majority requirement to raise taxes help in this regard.

    Finally, tax policies must be pro-growth.

    Williams also said that increasing spending is not a good answer to economic problems. The ARRA (federal stimulus program of 2009) allowed states to live beyond their means for two years, and the money had many strings attached. Maintenance of effort requirements forced states to abandon good budgeting practices, and set states up to fail once the stimulus money stopped. In Kansas, the budget shortfall at the start of the legislative session in January was about $550 billion, and most of that was due to the end of the stimulus money.

    In analyzing tax policy, Williams told of how many people insist on using static analysis to predict the outcome of changes to tax policy. He showed the famous Laffer Curve, made prominent by co-author Arthur Laffer. The concepts illustrated by the curve include these: At an income tax rate of zero, the government collects no tax revenue. At a tax rate of 100 percent, again the government collects no revenue, as no one will work if all their earnings go to taxes. Between these two rates, revenue will rise as the tax rate is increased, until at some point tax revenue begins to fall with increasing tax rates. Eventually people figure out it just doesn’t pay to work any longer after the tax rate becomes too high.

    It’s important, therefore, to include human behavior and reaction to changes in tax policy. This is dynamic analysis — realizing that as tax rates change, people alter their behavior. Static analysis, on the other hand, doesn’t take this into account. Williams recounted an example as told in the book Flat Tax Revolution: Using a Postcard to Abolish the IRS by Steve Forbes:

    In 1989, Bob Packwood (R-OR) requested a revenue forecast from Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) on a hypothetical tax increase raising the top rate to 100 percent on incomes over $200,000. The JCT responded by forecasting increased revenues of $204 billion in 1990 and $299 billion in 1993. Essentially, the JCT predicted that people would continue to work even if the government taxed them out of every penny they earned.

    Williams said that only about ten states use a method of analysis different from static analysis when considering tax policy changes. Therefore, pro-growth tax policies often don’t get a good revenue score and are rejected for that reason. But the static models don’t take into account that as tax rates decrease, revenue may increase, or not decline as much as static models predict.

    On the state pension crisis, Williams said that official estimates understate the magnitude of the actual problem, as government accounting standards do not require states to fully recognize the full magnitude of recent investment losses. The losses may be spread over several years. Further, he said that states generally use an assumed rate of return that is greater than what is likely to be realized. He said that legendary investor Warren Buffet has recommended that state use six percent as their future earnings assumption. Kansas uses eight percent. Over long periods of time, which is the timeframe of pension plans, this difference in returns produces a large change in earnings.

    For more information on this report and its findings for Kansas, see Rich States, Poor States released for 2011. The report is available to read in its entirety at no cost at Rich States, Poor States: The ALEC-Laffer Economic Competitiveness Index.

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Monday June 27, 2011

    Wichita city council. This week the Wichita City Council considers consent agenda items only, and then has a workshop. Among the consent agenda items are a resolution declaring the city’s intent to use debt financing in the amount of $40 million for the new parking facility at the airport. A companion resolution declares intent to use $160 million in debt financing for the new terminal. Interestingly, these resolutions contain this language: “That a public necessity exists for, and that the public safety, service and welfare will be advanced by …” followed by a description of each project. Really, the city should not lie in this way. … Consent agendas are handy for hiding items like this item: “Authorize payment of $13,025 as a full settlement for all claims arising out of an automobile accident. … This claim arose from a May 31, 2011 automobile accident involving an OCI inspector employed by the City.” … Of interest in the workshop session is an item titled “WSU Economic Development Fiscal Impact Analysis Model.” Here, undoubtedly, analysts from Wichita State University Center for Economic Development and Business Research will tell the council how government spending has a magical power not found in private sector spending.

    Huelskamp on spending as driving economic growth. Speaking of the magical power of government spending, in his questioning (video below) of Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director Douglas Elmendorf last week, U.S. Representative Tim Huelskamp, who represents the Kansas first district asked if reducing spending is not the best way to grow the economy. Elmendorf replied that there are trade-offs; that higher marginal tax rates do reduce economic activity to some extent. But, he added, that certain forms of government spending are important for economic growth. Huelskamp pressed the director, noting that in his recent report, higher marginal tax rates and more government borrowing are negative factors on growth, asking “So explain to me why reducing spending is not the only alternative?” Director Elmendorf explained cutting spending “that was not itself an investment in economic growth, that would be better for the economy than if one raised [marginal tax rates].” … Huelskamp asked if Medicare and Social Security spending were economic growth drivers. The answers were no, they are not important economic growth drivers in the long term. Some pieces of the defense budget have been, he said. Huelskamp noted we’ve just eliminated a huge chunk of the federal budget as being important to economic growth. … Elmendorf said he did not have a list of the types of federal spending that have been important to economic growth, and he admitted that “we are not good at modeling those effects.” … Huelskamp asked Elmendorf if he could, as follow-up, provide examples of federal government spending that are drivers of economic growth, saying that Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System refuses to identify those. … We’ll have to wait and see how the CBO responds. The report Huelskamp referred to is CBO’s 2011 Long-Term Budget Outlook.

    No Wichita Pachyderm this week. Because of the holiday, the Wichita Pachyderm Club will not meet this week. Upcoming speakers: On July 8, Dave Trabert, President, Kansas Policy Institute, on “Stabilizing the Kansas Budget.” On July 15, Jon Hauxwell, MD, speaking on “Medicinal Cannabis.” On July 22, U.S. Representative Mike Pompeo of Wichita on “An update from Washington.” On July 29, Dennis Taylor, Secretary, Kansas Department of Administration and “The Repealer” on “An Overview of the Office of the Repealer.”

    Government spending secrets. Erick Erickson, RedState: “How bad is Washington spending? Well, there is a new website that’s up called Dirty Spending Secrets with a Q&A format to uncover some of Washington’s dirtiest spending secrets. Several friends of mine have emailed it to me. It’s actually pretty easy to figure out, but also horribly shocking — in the Q&A multiple choice, just go for the worst answer and you’ll probably be right. With the debt ceiling vote coming up, it’s just another reminder of how unserious Washington is when it comes to spending.”

    Wichita city budget input. It’s budget time in Wichita, and the city will take questions and public input this Wednesday (June 29) in a 6:00 pm session in the city council chambers. The event will be broadcast live on the city’s network on Cox cable television channel 7, and questions may be emailed to budgetquestions@wichita.gov

    Fracking facts. The Wall Street Journal has a run-down of the facts about the risks involved in fracking. This is a new technology that has greatly increased the amount of natural gas available in the U.S. and has caused the price (per million British thermal units) to decline from $15 to $4. For example, opponents of fracking claim that the process, in which water and chemicals are injected underground to free gas from confinement in shale formations, contaminates groundwater. Counters the Journal: “The problem with this argument is that the average shale formation is thousands of feet underground, while the average drinking well or aquifer is a few hundred feet deep. Separating the two is solid rock. This geological reality explains why EPA administrator Lisa Jackson, a determined enemy of fossil fuels, recently told Congress that there have been no ‘proven cases where the fracking process itself has affected water.’” … There are risks, of course, to any undertaking like this, and in conclusion the Journal recommends: “Amid this political scrutiny, the industry will have to take great drilling care while better making its public case. In this age of saturation media, a single serious example of water contamination could lead to a political panic that would jeopardize tens of billions of dollars of investment. The industry needs to establish best practices and blow the whistle on drillers that dodge the rules. The question for the rest of us is whether we are serious about domestic energy production. All forms of energy have risks and environmental costs, not least wind (noise and dead birds and bats) and solar (vast expanses of land). Yet renewables are nowhere close to supplying enough energy, even with large subsidies, to maintain America’s standard of living. The shale gas and oil boom is the result of U.S. business innovation and risk-taking. If we let the fear of undocumented pollution kill this boom, we will deserve our fate as a second-class industrial power.”

    Even quicker. Gallup: Americans Regain Some Confidence in Newspapers, TV News: “Americans’ confidence in newspapers and television news rebounded slightly in the past year, having been stuck at record lows since 2007. The 28% of Americans who express a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in newspapers and the 27% who say the same about television news still lag significantly behind the levels of trust seen through much of the 1990s and into 2003.” … Rasmussen on health care: 55% favor health care repeal, just 17 percent say new law will improve quality of care. … Politico: 2012 contenders shun Hill support: “Across Capitol Hill, Republican lawmakers report scant interaction with presidential hopefuls. The chase for congressional backing has been moving at a snail’s pace this year compared with the previous election cycle, a reflection of the slowly forming presidential field, concern in Congress about the strength of the candidates and a desire by White House hopefuls to keep their distance from an unpopular Washington.” … Picket: Bozells look to grow conservative ‘social media army’: “Mr. [Brent Bozell, president of Media Research Center] explained, ‘We looked across the landscape and then across conservatism and we thought that was one thing that was lacking. We weren’t taking advantage of the tools that the Left was taking advantage of with good success and what we found was that there was hunger out there.’” He should have been at AFP’s RightOnline conference in Minneapolis last week. MRC was represented, though. … Investor’s Business Daily Editorial: How Big Government Strangles The Job Creators: “The secretary of the Treasury says taxes must be raised on small business so the federal government can stay big. With that breathtaking statement, he helpfully mapped out the key difference between the parties. … ‘If you don’t touch revenues,’ Geithner said, ‘you have to shrink the overall size of government programs, things like education, to levels that we could not accept as a country.’”

  • Wichita and its political class

    The discussion at yesterday’s Wichita City Council meeting provided an opportunity for citizens to discover the difference in the thinking of the political class and those who value limited government and capitalism.

    At issue was Mid-Continent Instruments, Inc., which asked the city for a forgivable loan of $10,000. It received the same last week from Sedgwick County. According to city documents, the State of Kansas through its Department of Commerce is also contributing $503,055 in forgivable loans, sales tax exemptions, training grants, and tax credits.

    At the city council meeting Clinton Coen, a young man who ran for city council earlier this year, spoke against this measure, which he called corporate welfare.

    In response to Coen, Council Member James Clendenin (district 3, south and southeast Wichita) asked if we should ignore companies that want to do business here, or should we allow them to leave? Implicit in the question is that the threat dangled by Mid-Continent is real: that unless the city gives them $10,000, they will expand somewhere else. How citizens and council members feel about this issue largely depends on their perceived genuineness of this threat.

    When Coen recommended that the city cut spending, Clendenin said “I can guarantee you, from what I have seen, this city government has cut a tremendous amount of spending.” When pressed by Coen for examples of cuts, he demurred. Clendenin also said that the $10,000 is needed to show the city’s commitment to the company.

    Perhaps coming to the rescue of her younger and less experienced colleague, Council Member Janet Miller asked City Manager Bob Layton how much has been cut from the budget, and he replied “we’ve cut over $20 million in the general fund over three years.”

    In saying that, Layton is using the language and mind-set of bureaucrats and politicians. In this world, it’s a cut if spending does not rise as fast as planned or hoped for. As you can see from the accompanying chart, Wichita general fund spending has not been cut in recent years. It has risen in each of the last three years, and plans are for it to keep rising.

    Wichita general fund spending

    This illustrates a divide between the thinking of the political class and regular people. Blurring the distinction between plans and reality lets politicians and bureaucrats present a fiscally responsible image — they cut the budget, after all — and increase spending at the same time. It’s a message that misinforms citizens about the important facts.

    Miller also praised the return on investment the city receives for its spending on economic development, citing Wichita State University Center for Economic Development and Business Research and the cost-benefit calculations it performs. These calculations take the cost of providing the incentives and compare it to the returns the city and other governmental entities receive.

    What is rarely mentioned, and what I think most people would be surprised to learn, is that the “returns” used in these calculations is manifested in the form of increased tax revenue. It’s not like in the private sector, where business firms attempt to increase their sales and profits by providing a product or service that people willingly buy. No, the city increases its revenue (we can’t call it profit) by collecting more taxes.

    It’s another difference between the political class and everyone else: The political class craves tax revenue.

    Aside from this, the cost-benefit calculations for the city don’t include the entire cost. The cost doesn’t include the county’s contribution, the majority of which comes from residents of its largest city, which is Wichita. Then, there’s the half-million in subsidy from the state, with a large portion of that paid for by the people of Wichita.

    But even if you believe these calculations, there’s the problem of right-sizing the investment. If an investment of $10,000 has such glowing returns — last week Sedgwick County Commissioner Jim Skelton called the decision a “no-brainer” — why can’t we invest more? If we really believe this investment is good, we should wonder why the city council and county commission are so timid.

    Since the applicant company is located in his district, Council Member Pete Meitzner (district 2, east Wichita), praised the company and the state’s incentives, and made a motion to approve the forgivable loan. All council members except Michael O’Donnell (district 4, south and southwest Wichita) voted yes.

    Going forward

    While the political class praises these subsidies and the companies that apply for them, not many are willing to confront the reality of the system we’re creating. Some, like O’Donnell and Sedgwick County Commissioner Richard Ranzau, have recognized that when government is seen as eager to grant these subsidies, it prompts other companies to apply. The lure of a subsidy may cause them to arrange their business affairs so as to conform — or appear to conform — to the guidelines government has for its various subsidy programs. Companies may do this without regard to underlying economic wisdom.

    We also need to recognize that besides simple greed for public money, businesses have another reason to apply for these subsidies: If a publicly-traded company doesn’t seek them, its shareholders would wonder why the company didn’t exercise its fiduciary duty to do so. But this just perpetuates the system, and so increasing amounts of economic development fall under the direction of government programs.

    While most people see this rise in corporate welfare as harmful — I call it a moral hazard — the political class is pleased with this arrangement. As Meitzner said in making his motion, he was proud that Wichita “won out” over the other city Mid-Continent Instruments considered moving to.

    Another harmful effect of these actions is to create a reputation for having an uncompetitive business environment. Not only must businesses of all types pay for the cost of these subsidies, some face direct competition by a government-subsidized competitor. This is the situation Wichita-area hotels face as a result of the city granting millions in subsidy to a hotel developer to build a Fairfield Inn downtown.

    Even those not in direct competition face increased costs as they attempt to hire labor, buy supplies, and seek access to capital in competition with government-subsidized firms. Could this uneven competitive landscape be a factor that business firms consider in deciding where to locate and invest?

    We can expect to see more government intervention in economic development and more corporate welfare. Former council member Sue Schlapp in April took a job with the Kansas Department of Commerce. Her job title is “senior constituent liaison,” which I think can be better described as “customer service agent for the corporate welfare state.” Her office is in Wichita city hall.

    Increasingly we see politicians and bureaucrats making decisions based on incorrect and misleading information, such as claiming that the city’s general fund budget has been cut when spending has increased. Sometimes they are fed incorrect information, as in the case of a presentation at Sedgwick County Commission that bordered on fraudulent.

    Sometimes, I think, officeholders just don’t care. It’s easiest to go along with the flow and not raise ripples. They participate in groundbreakings and get their photograph in the newspaper and on television that way. Which brings up an important question: why do none of our city’s mainstream media outlets report on these matters?

  • For Wichita, Save-A-Lot teaches a lesson

    The announcement that a Save-A-Lot grocery store will proceed — contrary to the claims of developers and city staff who rely on their information — should provide a lesson that yes, economic development in Wichita can and will happen without public assistance. Additionally, examination of the public hearing for this matter before the Wichita City Council last September should teach us to be very cautious in relying on the claims of people who have a huge economic stake in obtaining public assistance.

    At a city council public hearing on both the Community Improvement District and Tax Increment financing district last September, developer Rob Snyder sought public assistance in the form of a tax increment financing district (TIF) and a Community Improvement District (CID). Over a period of years, the two forms of subsidy were estimated to be worth $900,000 to the developer. The project’s total cost was presented as slightly over $2 million.

    (By the way, in its recent coverage of this matter, the Wichita Eagle has an incorrect recording of events. The Eagle reported, referring to the Wichita City Council and Sedgwick County Commission: “The boards ultimately rejected the financing, despite support from some officials.” Actually, the city council unanimously approved both the CID and TIF. Then, the county commission exercised its statutory prerogative to veto the formation of a TIF district. The commission has no authority to intervene in the formation of CIDs.)

    As part of his presentation to the council Allen Bell, Wichita’s Director of Urban Development explained that to be eligible for TIF, developers must demonstrate a “gap,” that is, an analytical finding that conventional financing is not sufficient for the project, and public assistance is required: “We’ve done that. We know, for example, from the developer’s perspective in terms of how much they will make in lease payments from the Save-A-Lot operator, how much that is, and how much debt that will support, and how much funds the developer can raise personally for this project. That has, in fact, left a gap, and these numbers that you’ve seen today reflect what that gap is.”

    Snyder told the council that without the public assistance, there will be no grocery store: “We have researched every possible way, how do we make this project work with the existing funding that’s available to us. … We might as well say if for some reason we can’t figure out how to get this funding to go through, there won’t be a shopping center over there.”

    Greg Ferris, a former city council member who lobbies local government on behalf of clients, was adamant in his insistence that the grocery store could not be built without public financing: “There will not be a building on that corner if this is not passed today. … That new building would not be built. I absolutely can tell you that because we have spent months … trying to figure out a way to finance a project in that area. A grocery store is not going to move into the Planeview area to service those people just like they didn’t move into the area at 13th and Grove until the city subsidized that with several hundred thousand dollars of city money. … What you’ve heard is misinformation. … This project just won’t happen and the people of Planeview will suffer.”

    Now, we see that the financing gap has been closed, and without government assistance. The claims that a grocery store can’t be built in that neighborhood without welfare for developers have been demonstrated to be false.

    Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer has referred to those who oppose government intervention like TIF and CID as “naysayers.” Here’s an example where free markets, capitalism, and economic freedom have overcome Wichita’s true naysayers: those who say it can’t happen without government intervention.

    A message from John Todd: “This Wednesday (June 8th) at 2:00 pm there will be a groundbreaking ceremony for the new Planeview Save-A-Lot grocery store located on the southeast corner of George Washington Boulevard and Pawnee. This project was initially proposed with $900,000 in CID and TIF public subsidies for the developer that were approved by the Wichita City Council last fall. When the Sedgwick County Commission rejected giving the county’s portion of the TIF generated real estate taxes to the developer and away from the public treasury, the project appeared to be dead. The Wichita Eagle recently reported that the Save-A-Lot grocery store owner has now decided to develop the project on his own with his own financing. Perhaps it is appropriate for those citizens who appreciate businesses who develop market-driven projects in Wichita and Sedgwick County on their own nickel to show their appreciation to the grocery store owner/developer by attending the groundbreaking ceremony and personally thanking him.”