Tag: Economics

  • Kansas tax revenue, October 2020

    Kansas tax revenue, October 2020

    For October 2020, total Kansas tax revenue was 7.9 percent greater than last October. Over the four months of the current fiscal year, tax revenue rose by 24.4 percent.

    Tax reports from the State of Kansas for October 2020 show tax revenues falling from the previous month, but higher than the same month last year, despite the effects of the response to the pandemic.

    When reporting on Kansas tax collections, the comparison is usually made to the estimated collections. Those estimates were revised in April based on economic conditions affected by the response to the pandemic. To get a feel for the effects of the response to the pandemic, it is best to compare to the same month the prior year.

    (The estimated revenue figures are still important because the state budget is based on them. If the actual revenue is much below the estimated revenue, there may not be enough income to pay expenses.)

    For October 2020, individual income tax collections were $283,620,667, up 9.1 percent from last October. Retail sales tax collections rose by 5.1 percent to $210,994,242. Total tax collections were $596,567,392, up 7.9 percent from the same month last year. A nearby table summarizes.

    For fiscal year 2021, which started July 1, 2020, total tax collections are up by 24.4 percent over the same period of the previous fiscal year. A large reason for this is the change in tax deadlines from April to July, shifting much revenue from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2021. That hasn’t always been explained, as I show in In Kansas, explanations for tax collections may vary.

    My report on tax revenue for April details some changes made by the estimating group.

    My interactive visualization of Kansas tax revenue has been updated with October data. Click here to use it.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger.
  • Wichita jobs and employment, September 2020

    Wichita jobs and employment, September 2020

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in September 2020, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down, all by large amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago. The recent trend, however, is positive, although Wichita is recovering slower than the nation.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effects of the response to the pandemic in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for September 2020.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment fell from 306,400 last September to 292,200 in September 2020, a loss of 14,200 jobs (4.6 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation fell by 6.4 percent. The unemployment rate in September 2020 was 8.0 percent, up from 3.0 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force fell by 5,050 persons (1.6 percent) in September 2020 from August 2020, the number of unemployed persons fell by 5,943 (18.3 percent), and the unemployment rate was 8.4 percent, down from 10.1 percent in August. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 288,236 in September from 287,343 the prior month, an increase of 893 persons (0.3 percent).

    The following chart of the monthly change in the labor force and employment in Wichita shows the magnitude of drop in April overwhelming other months, and then a positive change in employment for the following months, although the change is becoming smaller and was zero for September. Note the fall in the labor force for the last two months.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a similar same trend — fewer jobs, although the labor force is larger except for September.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation before the pandemic. In all months affected by the pandemic, we see the decline in employment Wichita has not been as severe as the nation.

    The following chart shows the monthly change in nonfarm jobs for Wichita and the nation. For September, the number of jobs in Wichita was unchanged, while for the nation, the number grew a small amount. For the last four months, Wichita employment has been growing at a rate slower than the national rate.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation. Since the pandemic, however, Wichita has been outperforming the nation.

    (For data on all metropolitan areas in the nation, see my interactive visualization Metro area employment and unemployment.)

  • Updated: Effects of pandemic on employment in states

    Updated: Effects of pandemic on employment in states

    The effects of the response to the pandemic vary widely among the states, but federal government employment has been little affected.

    To learn more and explore the data, visit the interactive visualization at Visualization: Employment in the states.

    This data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor. Data is current through September 2020.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger.

  • Kansas jobs, September 2020

    Kansas jobs, September 2020

    In Kansas for September 2020, the unemployment rate continued to fall, but both the labor force and the number of jobs also fell.

    Data released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effect of the pandemic and the response to it on employment in Kansas for September 2020.

    (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

    Using seasonally adjusted data, from August 2020 to September 2020, nonfarm employment in Kansas fell by 7,200 jobs (0.5 percent). Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for September 2020 was lower by 63,000 (4.4 percent) over the same month last year. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is 62,600 fewer jobs (4.4 percent).

    Over the year (September 2019 to September 2020), the Kansas labor force fell by 14,427 people (1.0 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with a decline of 23,577 (1.6 percent) over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows a decline of 16,673 (1.0 percent) in the labor force over the year.

    The Kansas economy had been adding jobs each month since May, so the decline in September is notable. The national economy added jobs, although a small number, and less than previous months since the pandemic started.

    The number of unemployed persons fell from August 2020 to September 2020 by 15,809 (15.3 percent). The unemployment rate was 5.9 percent in September, up 2.8 percentage points from one year ago, and down 1.0 percentage points from last month.

    Comparing Kansas to the nation: Using seasonal data, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs is 4.43 percent lower than 12 months ago, while nationally, the same statistic is 6.37 percent lower. Non-seasonal data shows the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs is 4.39 percent lower than 12 months ago, while nationally, the same statistic is 6.40 percent lower.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, the magnitude of the changes in April through August overwhelms the other months. Note the loss of jobs for Kansas in September.

    In the following chart of job levels from the same month one year ago, the September figures show the loss of jobs becoming less pronounced for both Kansas and the nation, but the trend towards recovery is slowing.

    In the following chart of unemployment rates, we see that the rate in Kansas is lower than the national rate, both before and after the pandemic.

    In the following chart of changes in the labor force for Kansas and the nation, the labor force has both grown and shrank since the pandemic.

    The June release contained figures for industry groups. The following chart shows the number of employees in September 2019 and September 2020.

    This chart uses the same data, showing the percent change from September 2019. The Leisure and hospitality category is still the lowest, proportionally, followed by Mining and logging. The only industry group to gain employees is Construction, and the gain was small. (Note the horizontal scale is from positive to negative values when moving left to right.)

  • Presidential data explorer

    Presidential data explorer

    Explore the economic record of presidents in an interactive visualization.

    If you’re wondering how the records — economic, mostly — of presidents compare, here is the presidential data explorer.

    I’ve gathered a variety of data from many sources and present it in an interactive visualization.

    I know that some of the charts are crowded. But you can select which presidents to include, and you can click on one or more names for emphasis.

    Click here to learn more about the data and access the visualization.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger
  • Intrust Bank Arena loss for 2019 nears $5 million

    Intrust Bank Arena loss for 2019 nears $5 million

    A truthful accounting of the finances of Intrust Bank Arena in downtown Wichita shows a large loss.

    The true state of the finances of the Intrust Bank Arena in downtown Wichita are not often a subject of public discussion. Arena boosters cite a revenue-sharing arrangement between the county and the arena operator, referring to this as profit or loss. But this arrangement is not an accurate and complete accounting, and it hides the true economics of the arena. What’s missing is depreciation expense.

    There are at least two ways of looking at the finance of the arena. Nearly all attention is given to the “profit” (or loss) earned by the arena for the county according to an operating agreement between the county and ASM Global, a company that operates the arena. SMG, the former operator of the arena, merged with another company to form ASM Global.

    This agreement specifies a revenue sharing mechanism between the county and ASM. For 2109, the accounting method used in this agreement produced a profit, or “net building income,” of $1,021,721 to be split (not equally) between SMG and the county. The county’s share was $310,861. (1)The Operations of INTRUST Bank Arena, as Managed by ASM Global. Independent Auditor’s Report and Special-Purpose Financial Statements. December 31, 2019. Available here.

    While described as “profit” by many, this payment does not represent any sort of “profit” or “earnings” in the usual sense. In fact, the introductory letter that accompanies these calculations warns readers that these are “not intended to be a complete presentation of INTRUST Bank Arena’s financial position and results of operations in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America.” (2)Ibid, page 2.

    That bears repeating: This is not a reckoning of profit and loss in any recognized sense. It is simply an agreement between Sedgwick County and SMG as to how SMG is to be paid, and how the county participates.

    A much better reckoning of the economics of the Intrust Bank Arena can be found in the 2019 Comprehensive Annual Financial Report for Sedgwick County. (3)Sedgwick County. Comprehensive Annual Financial Report of the County of Sedgwick, Kansas for the Year ended December 31, 2019. Available at https://www.sedgwickcounty.org/finance/comprehensive-annual-financial-reports/. This document holds additional information about the finances of the Intrust Bank Arena. The CAFR, as described by the county, “… is a review of what occurred financially last year. In that respect, it is a report card of our ability to manage our financial resources.”

    Regarding the arena in 2019, the CAFR states:

    The Arena Fund represents the activity of the INTRUST Bank Arena. The facility is operated by a private company; the County incurs expenses only for certain capital improvements or major repairs and depreciation, and receives as revenue only a share of profits earned by the operator, if any, and naming rights fees. The Arena Fund had an operating loss of $5.0 million. The loss can be attributed to $5.0 million in depreciation expense.

    Financial statements in the same document show that $4,993,361 was charged for depreciation in 2019. If we subtract the ASM payment to the county of $310,861 from depreciation expense, we learn that the Intrust Bank Arena lost $4,682,500 in 2019.

    Depreciation expense is not something that is paid out in cash. That is, Sedgwick County did not write a check for $4,682,500 to pay depreciation expense. Instead, depreciation accounting provides a way to recognize and account for the cost of long-lived assets over their lifespan. It provides a way to recognize opportunity costs, that is, what could be done with our resources if not spent on the arena.

    But not many of our civic leaders recognize this, at least publicly. We — frequently — observe our governmental and civic leaders telling us that we must “run government like a business.” The county’s financial report makes mention of this: “Sedgwick County has one business-type activity, the Arena fund. Net position for fiscal year 2019 decreased by $5.0 million to $146.6 million. Of that $146.6 million, $138.9 million is invested in capital assets. The decrease can be attributed to depreciation, which was $5.0 million.” (4)CAFR, page A-10. (emphasis added)

    At the same time, these leaders avoid frank and realistic discussion of economic facts. As an example, in years past Commissioner Dave Unruh made remarks that illustrate the severe misunderstanding under which he and almost everyone labor regarding the nature of spending on the arena: “I want to underscore the fact that the citizens of Sedgwick County voted to pay for this facility in advance. And so not having debt service on it is just a huge benefit to our government and to the citizens, so we can go forward without having to having to worry about making those payments and still show positive cash flow. So it’s still a great benefit to our community and I’m still pleased with this report.”

    The contention — witting or not — is that the capital investment of $183,625,241 (not including an operating and maintenance reserve) in the arena is merely a historical artifact, something that happened in the past, something that has no bearing today. There is no opportunity cost, according to this view. This attitude, however, disrespects the sacrifices of the people of Sedgwick County and its visitors to raise those funds. Since Kansas is one of the few states that adds sales tax to food, low-income households paid extra sales tax on their groceries to pay for the arena — an arena where they may not be able to afford tickets.

    Any honest accounting or reckoning of the performance of Intrust Bank Arena must take depreciation into account. While Unruh is correct that depreciation expense is not a cash expense that affects cash flow, it is an economic reality that can’t be ignored — except by politicians, apparently. The Wichita Eagle and Wichita Business Journal aid in promoting this deception.

    The upshot: We’re evaluating government and making decisions based on incomplete and false information, just to gratify the egos of self-serving politicians and bureaucrats.

    Reporting on Intrust Bank Arena financial data

    In February 2015 the Wichita Eagle reported: “The arena’s net income for 2014 came in at $122,853, all of which will go to SMG, the company that operates the facility under contract with the county, Assistant County Manager Ron Holt said Wednesday.” A reading of the minutes for the February 11 meeting of the Sedgwick County Commission finds Holt mentioning depreciation expense not a single time. Neither did the Eagle article.

    In December 2014, in a look at the first five years of the arena, its manager told the Wichita Eagle this: “‘We know from a financial standpoint, the building has been successful. Every year, it’s always been in the black, and there are a lot of buildings that don’t have that, so it’s a great achievement,’ said A.J. Boleski, the arena’s general manager.”

    The Wichita Eagle opinion page hasn’t been helpful, with Rhonda Holman opining with thoughts like this: “Though great news for taxpayers, that oversize check for $255,678 presented to Sedgwick County last week reflected Intrust Bank Arena’s past, specifically the county’s share of 2013 profits.” (For some years, the county paid to create a large “check” for publicity purposes.)

    That followed her op-ed from a year before, when she wrote: “And, of course, Intrust Bank Arena has the uncommon advantage among public facilities of having already been paid for, via a 30-month, 1 percent sales tax approved by voters in 2004 that actually went away as scheduled.” That thinking, of course, ignores the economic reality of depreciation.

    In 2018, the Wichita Eagle reported, based on partial-year results: “Intrust Bank Arena remains profitable but is reporting a 20 percent drop in income this year, despite a bump from the NCAA March Madness basketball tournament. Net income for the first three quarters of this year was about $556,000. That’s down from just shy of $700,000 last year, according to a report to the Sedgwick County Commission.” (5)Lefler, Dion. Despite March Madness, Intrust Bank Arena profit down 20 percent. December 7, 2018. Available at https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article222300675.html. This use of “profitable” is based only on the special revenue-sharing agreement, not generally accepted accounting principles.

    Even our city’s business press — which ought to know better — writes headlines like Intrust Bank Arena tops $1.1M in net income for 2015 without mentioning depreciation expense or explaining the non-conforming accounting methods used to derive this number.

    All of these examples are deficient in an important way: They contribute confusion to the search for truthful accounting of the arena’s finances. Recognizing depreciation expense is vital to understanding profit or loss, we’re not doing that.

    References

    References
    1The Operations of INTRUST Bank Arena, as Managed by ASM Global. Independent Auditor’s Report and Special-Purpose Financial Statements. December 31, 2019. Available here.
    2Ibid, page 2.
    3Sedgwick County. Comprehensive Annual Financial Report of the County of Sedgwick, Kansas for the Year ended December 31, 2019. Available at https://www.sedgwickcounty.org/finance/comprehensive-annual-financial-reports/.
    4CAFR, page A-10.
    5Lefler, Dion. Despite March Madness, Intrust Bank Arena profit down 20 percent. December 7, 2018. Available at https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article222300675.html.

  • Local government employment in Kansas

    Local government employment in Kansas

    Kansas has nearly the highest number of local government employees per resident, compared to other states.

    These are local government employees only. State and federal government employees are not included. The source of this data is the United States Census Bureau. I’ve gathered it and created an interactive visualization. Additionally, using each state’s population for each year, I’ve also computed the annual payroll on a per-resident basis and the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) employees per thousand residents.

    For all local government employees, Kansas had 50.55 employees per thousand residents in 2016, higher than all states (and areas) but the District of Columbia and Wyoming. These employees had an annual payroll of $2,355.09 per resident. Eleven states were higher.

    For the country as a whole, the values are 37.33 employees and annual payroll of $2,232.01 per thousand residents.

    Considering elementary and secondary education, Kansas had 29.58 such employees per thousand residents. This was higher than all states but Wyoming. The payroll for these employees was $1,237.80 per resident, with thirteen states above Kansas.

    Kansas is a small state in terms of population. Might small states have higher needs for employees on a per-resident basis? A plot of employees vs. population shows nearly no relationship between the two. Plots using urban percentage and population density show somewhat stronger relationships, but nothing very significant. (In these plots, I removed the District of Columbia from the data, as it is a special case that is all urbanized.)

    Click charts for larger versions.

    These are local government employees only. State and federal government employees are not included. Sometimes this causes discrepancies that need to be understood by considering other data. For example, Hawaii has no local employees in elementary and secondary education, as it has one school district which is run by the state. 1 Because education is a large expense for local governments (in most cases), Hawaii, in these charts, ranks as the state with the lowest number of government employees, considering only local government employees.

    Click here to learn about the visualization and use it to make your own charts and tables.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger.
    Example from the visualization. Click for larger.

    — Notes

    1. Wikipedia. Hawai’i Department of Education. Available at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawai%27i_Department_of_Education.
  • Kansas government employment and payroll by function

    Kansas government employment and payroll by function

    Looking at the number of state government employees in proportion to population, Kansas has many compared to other states.

    Each year the United States Census Bureau surveys federal, state, and local government civilian employees. I’ve gathered this data and present it in an interactive visualization using several views and supplementary calculations.

    The Census Bureau collects both counts of employees and payroll dollars. Comparisons based on the number of employees are useful, bypassing issues such as differing costs of living and salaries in general.

    Considering all government functions and state government employees only, Kansas had 18.7 full-time equivalent (FTE) employees per thousand residents in 2019. 12 states had more. These figures are for state government only. Many government employees are employed by local governments such as cities, counties, and school districts. These employees are not included in this visualization.

    In the nearby chart showing Kansas and nearby states, the level of employment in Kansas is high and rising for total employment and education employment.

    Click for larger

    For details and to access the visualization, click on: Visualization: State government employment by state and function.

  • GDP by state and industry illustrates the pandemic’s effect

    GDP by state and industry illustrates the pandemic’s effect

    Recent GDP data shows the sharp effects of the pandemic on production, but it is not uniform among the states and industries.

    BEA defines gross domestic product as “the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production.” It is the value of the final goods and services produced, and is one of the most common statistics used to chart the growth of economies.

    BEA, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is an agency of the United States Department of Commerce. One series BEA produces is gross domestic product (GDP) by state for industry sectors on an quarterly basis. I’ve gathered this data and have presented it in an interactive visualization.

    Looking at the nearby example from the visualization, which covers the past three years, we can easily make a few observations. First, looking at the rows for “All industry total” and “Private industries,” the effect of the response to the pandemic is profound.

    Click for larger.

    (The first quarter of the year is January through March, and the second quarter is April through June. The stay-at-home orders began in March, so they affected the first quarter only partially. By the second quarter, more such orders were in effect.)

    The decline in GDP for “Government and government enterprises” is less, while “Accommodation and food services” was severely affected.

    Another example shows GDP for all industries for all states, with Kansas highlighted. Kansas is near the middle of the states, which aligns with my reporting from yesterday on second-quarter GDP: “While GDP fell in all states, Kansas performed better than most, ranking nineteenth.” See Kansas GDP.

    Click for larger.

    To learn more about the data and access the interactive visualization, click here.