Voice For Liberty

Tag: Economics

  • Wichita metro population for 2019

    Wichita metro population for 2019

    For 2019, the estimated population for the Wichita metropolitan area is up — and also down.

    Each year the United States Census Bureau produces new population estimates through its Population and Housing Unit Estimates program.

    For the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area, the estimated population on July 1, 2019, is 640,218. That is an increase of 2,699 (0.4 percent) from the previous year. The largest component of this growth is Natural Increase, which grew by 2,325. This is composed of 8,057 births and 5,732 deaths.

    International Migration contributed 688 to population growth, while Domestic Migration subtracted 291. A nearby table summarizes.

    The Wichita MSA is composed of Sedgwick, Butler, Harvey, and Sumner counties.

    When the Census Bureau produces estimates for a new year, it also revises the estimates for prior years. For the Wichita MSA, these revisions have been small. For 2017 and 2018, the average revision was 0.03 percent. But for 2019, the average revision was 1.20 percent, and the revision was negative, meaning the revised estimated populations are lower.

    Revisions are common, but the 2019 revision for Wichita was especially large. For 2019, the average adjustment, with all metros weighted equally, was up 0.63 percent. The two metros closest to Wichita in the proportional size of revision were Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX, down by 1.11 percent, and Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN, down by 1.36 percent.

    I gathered data and present a nearby table holding estimated populations for the Wichita metro starting in 2010 and for four vintages. “Vintage,” in this context, refers to the year the data was produced. (Sort of. The data released in May 2020, which provides values for 2019, is labeled “vintage 2019.”)

    Click for larger.

    With the downward revision of the estimates, we now believe the population in 2019 is roughly what we thought it was in 2014. A nearby chart plots the estimated population, shown separately based on 2019 and 2018 vintages.

  • Kansas jobs, April 2020

    Kansas jobs, April 2020

    Employment fell sharply in Kansas in April 2020 as the response to the pandemic unfolded.

    Data released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effect of the pandemic and the response to it on employment in Kansas for April 2020.

    As explained in the March 2020 employment report, the effect of the pandemic was not fully realized in the March statistics because of the time when the data was collected. In Kansas, a stay-at-home order took effect on March 30, so its effect should be captured in the April data.

    (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

    Using seasonally adjusted data, from March 2020 to April 2020, nonfarm employment in Kansas fell by 130,400 (9.2 percent). Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for April 2020 fell by 133,200 (9.3 percent) over the same month last year. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is 134,700 (9.4 percent).

    Over the year (April 2019 to April 2020), the Kansas labor force is up by 14,666 (1.0 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with a decline of 11,661 (0.8 percent) over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows an increase of 22,707 (1.5 percent) in the labor force over the year.

    The number of unemployed persons rose from March 2020 to April 2020 by 125,673 (294.7 percent). The unemployment rate was 11.2 percent in April, up 8.0 percentage points from one year ago, and up 8.4 from last month.

    Comparing Kansas to the nation: Using seasonal data, Kansas nonfarm jobs fell by 9.34 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs fell by 12.92 percent. Non-seasonal data shows Kansas nonfarm jobs falling by 9.41 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs fell by 12.87 percent.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, the magnitude of the April change overwhelms the other months.

    In the following chart of showing job changes from the same month one year ago, the April figures are much larger than any other.

    The April release contained figures for industry groups. The following chart shows the number of employees in April 2019 and April 2020.

    This chart uses the same data, showing the percent change from last April. Leisure and hospitality suffered the most, proportionally. Financial activities showed the smallest proportional loss, followed by government.

  • Real personal income in states and metros

    Real personal income in states and metros

    When adjusted for regional differences, personal income in Wichita and Kansas is higher than otherwise, but growth is slow.

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis, a division of the United States Department of Commerce, generates personal income data for states and metropolitan statistical areas. I present this data in two interactive visualizations, one for states, and a second for metros.

    When presenting economic data, the term “real” commonly means that dollar amounts have been adjusted for the effects of inflation. That is the case for this data. BEA goes further in also adjusting data for regional price parity and personal consumption expenditures price index.

    The difference when using values adjusted for regional differences can be substantial. For example, when considering per capita personal income in 2018 using actual, non-adjusted dollars, Kansas ranked number 23 among the states, which is a typical value for Kansas. When adjusted for region, Kansas ranked number 16. In a nearby example from the visualization, the value of per capita personal income for Kansas is better than other states, but is growing slowly. This is easily seen when comparing Colorado to Kansas.

    Click for larger.

    In the example for metro areas in Kansas, Wichita’s per capita personal income is high, but growing slower than some areas, including the nation. (The Kansas City metro area includes Kansas City, Missouri and other areas in Missouri.)

    Click for larger.

    To learn more about this data and access the interactive visualizations, click here.

  • State government tax collections for 2019

    State government tax collections for 2019

    Kansas state government tax collections rose to $3,443 per person in 2019, an increase of 5.0 percent from 2018.

    Each year the United States Census Bureau collects a summary of taxes collected by each state for 5 broad tax categories and up to 25 tax subcategories. 1 I’ve collected this data and made it available in an interactive visualization. Data is through 2019, released in April.

    For the past two years, Kansas has collected more taxes per resident than our surrounding states. This is counting state taxes only. The primary reason for Kansas overtaking these states is the increase in individual income tax rates, which includes many businesses, even large firms. In 2019, Kansas collected $3,778.5 million in individual income taxes and $486.4 million in corporate income taxes.

    Click here to learn more about the data and access the visualization.

    Click images for larger versions.

    In the following chart showing total tax collections per person over time, Kansas now collects more than our surrounding states.

    This chart shows individual income tax collections only, with Kansas highlighted. The wide swings over the past decade are evident.

    —
    Notes

    1. United States Census Bureau. Annual Survey of State Government Tax Collections (STC). Available at https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/stc.html. ↩

  • Kansas tax revenue experiences effects of pandemic response

    For April, Kansas retail sales tax collections fell by 8.2 percent from last April, and much income tax revenue is deferred to July.

    Two reports from the State of Kansas reveal some of the effects of the response to the pandemic on state finances.

    On the current situation, the Consensus Revenue Estimating Group remarked, “given the magnitude and number of uncertainties that currently exist, and the potential for volatility of our forecasts has never been higher.” The group met on April 20, 2020, and issued its long-form report dated April 30.

    For revenue, the group “decreased the overall estimate for FY 2020 and FY 2021 by a combined $1.272 billion relative to the previous estimate made in November.” Fiscal year 2020 ends on June 30, 2020.

    When reporting on Kansas tax collections, the comparison is usually made to the estimated collections. Those estimates have been revised in April. To get a feel for the effects of the response to the pandemic, it is best to compare to the same month the prior year, with a few caveats.

    For example, individual income tax revenue fell by $526 million (65.0 percent) from last April, based on a revenue report released on May 1. Corporate income tax revenue fell by nearly the same percentage. The estimating group notes that the deadline for filing and paying these taxes was moved from April to July, which explains the steep decline. The CRE group estimates $645.8 million of tax revenue will be deferred to July, which is in fiscal year 2021. Note that this revenue is deferred, meaning the state still expects to collect it, as it reflects economic activity during calendar year 2019, before the response to the pandemic.

    Retail sales tax collections fell by $16 million (8.2 percent) from last April. For all excise taxes, which includes retail sales tax, revenue fell by $11 million (4.5 percent). Compensating use tax rose by $5 million (14.9 percent).

    My interactive visualization of Kansas tax revenue has been updated with April data. Click here to use it.

  • Wichita jobs and employment, March 2020

    Wichita jobs and employment, March 2020

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in March 2020, the labor force is up, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is down, and the number of people working is up when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows increases in labor force and jobs from February, with the unemployment rate unchanged. It is unclear how the pandemic has affected this data.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows an improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for March 2020.

    Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is difficult to assess the meaning of the March data. BLS gathers this data through two survey programs. For employment data derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, also known as the payroll survey or the establishment survey and which counts jobs, the estimate is for the pay period that includes the twelfth day of the month. For data from the Current Population Survey, which counts people, the estimate is for the “reference week,” which is usually the week that includes the twelfth day of the month. For the Wichita metropolitan area, here are the dates of some major events that would be expected to affect employment:

    • March 13: President Trump declares a national emergency that began on March 1.
    • March 16: Social distancing guidelines announced for the nation.
    • March 24: Kansas City metro area stay-at-home order takes effect.
    • March 25: Sedgwick County stay-at-home order takes effect.
    • March 30: Kansas stay-at-home order takes effect.

    As noted, the BLS data is collected nearer the start of the month than the end. For Wichita, these events that should affect employment occurred mostly towards the end of the month. There were also these two major events that affected employment in recent months: Spirit Aerosytems announced layoffs (2,796) that started January 22 1, according to news reports, and Textron (875) the month before 2.

    BLS also offered this guidance, and more, for the March data:

    We cannot precisely quantify the effects of the pandemic on the job market in March. However, it is clear that the decrease in employment and hours and the increase in unemployment can be ascribed to the effects of the illness and efforts to contain the virus. It is important to keep in mind that the March survey reference periods for both surveys predated many coronavirus-related business and school closures in the second half of the month. 3

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment rose from 302,800 last March to 307,100 in March 2020. That’s an increase of 4,300 jobs (1.4 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation grew by 1.0 percent. The unemployment rate in March 2020 was 3.5 percent, down from 3.6 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 800 persons (0.3 percent) in March 2020 from February 2020, the number of unemployed persons rose by 95 (0.9 percent), and the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, unchanged from February January. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 307,367 in March from 306,662 the prior month, an increase of 705 persons (0.2 percent).

    The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows the positive trend in employment and labor force over the last year. In some months the change has been small, but always positive, with one exception.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a slight decline in the rate of growth of both employment and labor force, but with both still growing.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 1.33 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 1.56 percent.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

    —
    Notes

    1. https://www.kansasworks.com/ada/mn_warn_dsp.cfm?id=2021 ↩
    2. Textron, Inc. Form 8-K, December 5, 2019. Available at https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/217346/000110465919070378/tm1924597-1_8k.htm. ↩
    3. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Frequently asked questions: The impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on The Employment Situation for March 2020. Available at http://www.bls.gov/cps/employment-situation-covid19-faq-march-2020.pdf. ↩
  • Before pandemic, Trump economy created jobs

    Before pandemic, Trump economy created jobs

    There is no doubt that the United States economy has created many jobs since Donald J. Trump became president. How does the record compare with the previous administration?

    This chart holds plots of cumulative nonfarm jobs created over two periods of 37 months each. One line starts with February 2017, the first full month of the Trump administration. It ends with February 2020, the last month not affected by the response to the pandemic.

    The other line starts with January 2014, which covers the last 37 months of the previous president’s administration.

    Question: Which line belongs to each president?

    No matter which administration’s line is blue and which is grey, I think the conclusion we can make is that one president did a good job of maintaining the positive trend of his predecessor, and that’s a great accomplishment.

    This data is from Bureau of Labor Statistics, which is part of the United States Department of Labor. The data series is CES0000000001, described as “All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted.” It is produced each month as part of the Current Employment Statistics survey. It is the most commonly cited employment series that is released monthly.

    Here’s another look at the same data. This chart uses the same BLS data series, with the chart created by FRED, a service of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. I’ve added notations marking the start and end of each 37 month period. The heavy blue line shows the number of jobs, with the scale on the left. Once the economy started recovering from the Great Recession, the line is nearly straight. Without a scale or legend, it is not easy to see where a new administration took office in January 2017.

    Click for larger.

    The light red line plots the percent change in jobs from the same month of the previous year. Its scale is on the right. When its value is positive, the economy is adding jobs, as has been the case since sometime in 2010. Since 2015 this line has been on a gentle downward trend, meaning that while the economy is adding jobs, it is doing so at a slower rate. In 2019 the trend was mostly flat.

    The citation for this chart is U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS, April 28, 2020, with author’s annotations.

    Some ask why the first chart doesn’t being with the first 37 months of the Obama administration. It’s a reasonable question. The answer is the two periods of time are not very comparable, as Obama took office during a recession, while Trump benefited from an already-growing economy — as the second chart illustrates.

  • Regulation reform could jump-start Kansas economy after COVID

    Regulation reform could jump-start Kansas economy after COVID

    By Michael Austin.

    The COVID-19 outbreak has not only posed a severe public health risk, but actions to combat it now risk a global economic collapse. With nearly half of all Kansas hourly jobs gone, the Kansas Department of Labor is overwhelmed processing unemployment claims. Roughly 40 percent of Kansas small businesses are shuttered, with more than half of them saying they are weeks away from closing permanently.

    Kansans need a pathway through this economic disaster. Will we come back stronger than ever before, or fall deep into an economic depression? To paraphrase our state maxim, we can reach for the stars and find better days ahead if we follow the common-sense path.

    First, Kansas needs occupational licensing reform, with the most excellent examples of success from Gov. Laura Kelly herself. In March, Kelly waived some licensure requirements, making it easier for physicians to work in Kansas. This fantastic move needs expansion, not a reversal once the virus passes.

    From nurses to HVAC technicians, all licensed professionals should be able to work as soon as they cross the border. Good licensing reform protects the public, encourages movement into Kansas, and provides Kansas young adults with a flexible career path.

    Kansas needs regulatory reform. Due to the statewide stay-at-home order and voluntary action, countless Kansas businesses shut their doors to “flatten the curve.” Pulling back regulations can prime them to reopen them quickly.

    The Kansas Department of Commerce could create a one-stop-shop for all state applications and fees. KDHE and local agencies can fast track the reopening of restaurants with a history of reliable inspections. It takes four and a half weeks to read Kansas state regulations one time (assuming reading 40 hours a week). Allowing businesses to open doors quickly, when public safety allows, gives Kansans precisely what they need to get back to work.

    Our leaders must also realize that we need a financially solvent government that encourages the Kansas spirit more than ever. That’s not an invitation for more stimulus, and issuing more debt to Kansans. Such methods didn’t work in 1932 and 2008, and it won’t work today. Kansas policymakers should work to simultaneously grow the rainy day fund while lowering the tax burden on Kansans. That means enforcing performance-based budgeting, matching tax dollars to specific improvements in Kansans’ lives. It also means passing the tax windfall, which rewards Kansas for their donations and gifts during the public health crisis. Finally, restore honesty in property taxation, so Kansans don’t lose their homes when times already are trying.

    The COVID-19 outbreak is not a crisis to be seized upon. Any Kansans policy must focus on “flattening the curve” today. Tomorrow, however, we’ll need different guidelines to jump-start the recovery.

    Kansas — and America — will recover. The next decade can be better than the last if we give families and businesses the flexibility to grow stronger. Whether the difficulties last for six weeks or six months, our nation’s founders gave us the blueprint to make striving for the stars possible.

    Michael Austin is director of the Sandlian Center for Entrepreneurial Government at the Kansas Policy Institute.

  • CBO updates projections

    CBO updates projections

    Based on post-pandemic conditions, the projections from the Congressional Budget Office for the immediate future are grim, but look better for the future.

    On April 24, the Congressional Budget Office released projections for the current fiscal year and the next. The document is CBO’s Current Projections of Output, Employment, and Interest Rates and a Preliminary Look at Federal Deficits for 2020 and 2021.

    CBO’s current projections include a sharp drop in gross domestic product: “Inflation-adjusted gross domestic product (real GDP) is expected to decline by about 12 percent during the second quarter, equivalent to a decline at an annual rate of 40 percent for that quarter.”

    Also, a rising unemployment rate: “The unemployment rate is expected to average close to 14 percent during the second quarter.”

    The budget deficit is projected at $3.7 trillion for the fiscal year 2020, which ends on September 30, 2020. For the fiscal year 2020, CBO projects $2.1 trillion for the deficit. Before the pandemic and the response, CBO projected a deficit of $1.0 trillion for 2020, with future deficits averaging $1.3 trillion from 2021 to 2030.

    In terms of the deficit to the size of the economy, CBO states, “With the expected weakness in economic output and the larger federal deficits, the deficit would be 17.9 percent of GDP in 2020 and 9.8 percent of GDP in 2021, CBO projects, compared with 4.6 percent in 2019.”

    The good news is that CBO sees GDP rebounding in the third quarter of the calendar year 2020, which starts on July 1. GDP growth in 2020 is forecast at 2.8 percent, which compares to an annual average of 2.3 percent from 2010 to 2019. A nearby excerpt from CBO illustrates.

    For the unemployment rate, CBO now projects 11.4 percent for the calendar year 2020 and 10.1 percent for 2021. This compares to 3.5 percent recorded for 2019.

    Click for larger.