Voice For Liberty

Tag: Economics

  • Updated: Economic indicators in the states

    Updated: Economic indicators in the states

    Economic indicators in the states, an interactive visualization.

    The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia calculates two indexes that track and forecast economic activity in the states and the country as a whole. Values are available through September 2019.

    The coincident index is a measure of current and past economic activity for each state. The leading index predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. Positive values mean the coincident index is expected to rise in the future six months, while negative values mean it is expected to fall. (For more detail, see Visualization: Economic indicators in the states.)

    For Kansas, the coincident index has been on a mostly upward trend over the past year, although it has leveled for the past few months.

    The leading index has been rising, although it fell sharply in September.

    A nearby chart shows index values for the last five years for Kansas, some nearby states, and the United States. You can access the visualization and create your own charts here: Visualization: Economic indicators in the states.

    Click for larger.
  • Quarterly Real GDP in Kansas

    Quarterly Real GDP in Kansas

    Examining changes in GDP and industry contribution in Kansas.

    The interactive visualization Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product by state and industry holds real (inflation-adjusted) GDP data for states and industries. In the visualization, one presentation shows the contribution to a state’s GDP by each industry.

    The nearby example taken from the visualization shows data for Kansas and nearby states, as well as the nation. The industry “Government and government enterprises” contributes a large portion of Kansas GDP, more than any of the illustrated states except Oklahoma. This is consistent with Kansas having many government employees as compared to other states. 1

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    We see that the industry “Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting’ is prominent in Kansas compared to the nation, although both Iowa and Nebraska are more reliant on this industry. Kansas is roughly equal to the Plains states in this regard. Note that agriculture is volatile.

    In the table, we see the change in GDP calculated in two ways: First, the change from the previous quarter, and then from the same quarter of the previous year. For Kansas, for all industries, we see that for the first quarter of 2019, the change in GDP was -0.27 percent. This is consistent with the revision of that quarter’s GDP growth to -1.1 percent on an annual basis. 2 The second-quarter GDP was better, rising by 0.54 percent, again consistent with the 2.2 percent annual rate recently reported.

    Click for larger.

    For Kansas in 2018, the year-over-year GDP changes for each quarter were 1.09, 2.21, 2.62, and 2.31 percent. For 2019, the quarterly changes have been 0.82 and 0.60 percent, illustrating slower growth in the Kansas economy. This can also be seen in the chart of nonfarm employment changes in Kansas. 3 For the first three months of 2019, the rate of job growth was declining, and then rising in the second quarter.

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    Notes

    1. “Looking at the number of government employees in proportion to population, Kansas has many compared to other states, and especially so in education.” Weeks, Bob. State and local government employees and payroll. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/kansas-government/state-and-local-government-employees-and-payroll-through-2018/. ↩
    2. “In the second quarter of 2019, the Kansas economy grew at the annual rate of 2.2 percent, up from a revised -1.1 percent the previous quarter.” Weeks, Bob. Kansas GDP. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/economics/kansas-gdp-2019-q2/. ↩
    3. Weeks, Bob. Kansas jobs, September 2019. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/economics/kansas-jobs-2019-09/. ↩
  • Kansas GDP

    Kansas GDP

    In the second quarter of 2019, the Kansas economy grew at the annual rate of 2.2 percent, up from a revised -1.1 percent the previous quarter.

    In the second quarter of 2019, the Kansas economy grew at the annual rate of 2.2 percent in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, according to statistics released today by Bureau of Economic Analysis, a division of the United States Department of Commerce. GDP for the quarter was at the annual rate of $172,538 million.

    The Kansas rate of 2.2 percent ranked fifteenth among the states and was higher than the national rate of 2.0 percent. The Plains states grew at the rate of 1.9 percent. (For this data, BEA defines Plains states as Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.)

    Of note, GDP growth for Kansas in the first quarter of 2019 was revised from 3.1 percent to -1.1 percent, indicating a shrinking economy for that quarter. Revisions are common as more complete and more detailed data becomes available. For 2018, Kansas GDP was revised upwards by 0.8 percent to $168,318 in current (non-inflation adjusted) dollars.

    Over the last ten quarters, Kansas has averaged quarterly growth rates of 0.9 percent in annual terms. For the nation, the rate was 2.5 percent. For the Plains states, it was 1.4 percent.

  • Wichita jobs and employment, September 2019

    Wichita jobs and employment, September 2019

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in September 2019, the labor force is up, the number of unemployed persons is down, the unemployment rate is down, and the number of people working is up when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows small increases in labor force and jobs from August.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a slowly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment rose from 300,500 last September to 303,100 this September. That’s an increase of 2,600 jobs, or 0.9 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation grew by 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate in September 2019 was 3.1 percent, down from 3.4 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 398 persons (0.1 percent) in September 2019 from August 2019, the number of unemployed persons fell by 204 (1.9 percent), and the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, unchanged from August. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 300,233 in September from 299,531 the prior month, an increase of 602 persons, or 0.2 percent.

    The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows the rise in employment and labor force.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago a decline in the rate of growth of both employment and labor force. The values are (almost all) growing, but at a slower pace each month until this month.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows some months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 1.64 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 1.46 percent.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer time periods. The change is calculated from the same month one year ago. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

  • The cause of the low unemployment rate in Wichita

    The cause of the low unemployment rate in Wichita

    The unemployment rate for Wichita and the nation is nearly equal over the last eight years. Job growth for Wichita, however, has been much slower than the nation, and the labor force for Wichita is actually smaller than in January 2011. This is what has led to a low unemployment rate in Wichita: Slow job growth paired with a declining labor force.

    How does the Wichita metropolitan area compare with others regarding employment, labor force, and unemployment rate? A nearby example shows data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor. It compares the average of all United States metropolitan areas to the Wichita metropolitan area. The chart starts with January 2011, about one and one-half years after the end of the Great Recession, and ends with August 2019, which is the most recent data for this series.

    We observe that the unemployment rate for Wichita and the nation is nearly equal over the time period. Job growth for Wichita, however, has been much slower than the nation, and the labor force for Wichita is actually smaller than in January 2011. This is what has led to a low unemployment rate in Wichita: Slow job growth paired with a declining labor force.

    This illustration came from an interactive visualization I created from BLS data. Click here to learn more and use the visualization.

    Click for larger.
  • Wichita jobs and momentum

    Wichita jobs and momentum

    Given recent data and the CEDBR forecasts, Wichita’s momentum is a slowly growing economy, with the rate of growth declining.

    The Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University provides forecasts for the Wichita economy. In October, CEDBR wrote, “Total nonfarm employment in the Wichita metropolitan area grew 1.2 percent in 2018, with 3,500 new jobs created to bring the area’s employment to 298,600 workers. This was a turnaround after Wichita’s total employment declined by 2,200 jobs in 2017.” 1

    The October update didn’t forecast employment growth for the remainder of the current year, but in May, the report forecast, “Wichita’s employment expansion is forecast to continue in 2019 with 0.9 percent employment growth, adding more than 2,700 new jobs to the metropolitan area.” 2

    For the first nine months of 2019, Wichita jobs have grown from 301,600 in January to 302,600 in September, using seasonally adjusted data. That’s an increase of 1,000 jobs, or 0.3 percent. If that rate stays unchanged through the end of the year, Wichita jobs will have grown by about 0.4 percent. Given this data, it seems unlikely that the CEDBR forecast of 0.9 percent will be met.

    For 2020, CEDBR wrote in its October forecast, “For 2020, growth is expected to be more modest, as the Wichita economy is projected to add approximately 1,600 new jobs and grow 0.5 percent.”

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    The reports mention declining unemployment rates. By itself, the unemployment rate tells us little, as it is the ratio of two numbers, the number of unemployed people divided by the labor force. Wichita’s low rate is mostly due to a declining, then slowly growing, labor force.

    To summarize, job growth in 2018 was 1.2 percent, forecast to be 0.9 percent in 2019 (but unlikely to meet that), and forecast to be 0.5 percent in 2020. (Recall that Wichita lost jobs in 2017.)

    Some candidates for local office in Wichita are campaigning on their record while in office, saying Wichita needs to build on its momentum. Given recent data and the CEDBR forecasts, Wichita’s momentum is a slowly growing economy, with the rate of growth declining.

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    Notes

    1. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. Wichita Employment Forecast. October 3, 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/eoc/2020-wichita-forecast.pdf. ↩
    2. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. 2019 Wichita Employment Forecast. May 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/2019-ict-forecast-may-revision.pdf. ↩
  • State and local government employees and payroll

    State and local government employees and payroll

    Looking at the number of government employees in proportion to population, Kansas has many compared to other states, and especially so in education.

    Each year the United States Census Bureau surveys federal, state, and local government civilian employees. I’ve gathered this data and present it in an interactive visualization using several views and supplementary calculations. 1

    The Census Bureau collects both counts of employees and payroll dollars. Comparisons based on the number of employees are useful, bypassing issues such as differing costs of living and salaries in general.

    Click for larger.
    Considering all government functions, Kansas has 69.50 full-time equivalent (FTE) employees per thousand residents in 2018. Only two states and the District of Columbia have more.

    For total elementary and secondary education employment, Kansas has 29.78 such employees (full-time equivalent) per thousand residents. Only two states have more.

    In the following chart of total employees, total elementary and secondary education employees, and total higher education employees, Kansas stands out from its neighbors and the nation. In almost all cases, Kansas has proportionally more government employees, and often by a large margin.

    In this example from the visualization showing Kansas and nearby states, Kansas stands out. Click for larger.

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    Notes

    1. For details and to access the visualization, see here: https://wichitaliberty.org/visualization-state-and-local-government-employment/. ↩
  • Looking at jobs in Wichita

    Looking at jobs in Wichita

    Examining job creation in Wichita as compared to the state and the nation.

    These charts show job changes in Wichita (Wichita MSA, the metropolitan statistical area, as that is the data that is provided monthly), Kansas, and the nation. Each chart shows the percentage, or relative, changes in nonfarm jobs on a common scale, using seasonally adjusted data. The source of data is Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor. These charts are taken from an interactive visualization of this data, which is available here.

    For the chart starting in May 2015, we can see the loss of jobs in Wichita during 2017. The situation improves after that year. Note also that the Wichita and Kansas lines, broadly speaking, show a similar trend, although the Wichita line has more variation. Also, while Wichita lost jobs in 2017, the national economy was strong and was creating jobs. (Click charts for larger versions.)

    In the chart starting in January 2018, we see Wichita mostly keeping up with the pace set by the nation, and for most of the time, doing better than the state.

    In the chart starting in January 2019, Wichita begins by closely tracking the nation, but stumbles behind in the summer. Kansas does better than the nation.

    For the first nine months of 2019, Wichita jobs have grown from 301,600 in January to 302,600 in September. That’s an increase of 1,000 jobs, or 0.3 percent. If that rate stays unchanged through the end of the year, Wichita jobs will have grown by about 0.4 percent.

    Not shown in these charts is that using not seasonally adjusted data, Wichita jobs have grown by 1.9 percent since January 2019. Using not seasonally adjusted data over a period of less than one year is problematic. For the past 12 months, using not seasonally adjusted data, jobs grew by 0.9 percent from September 2018 to September 2019.

    For reference, the Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University forecast Wichita MSA job growth at 0.9 percent for 2019, 1 slowing to 0.5 percent in 2020. 2

    Perhaps the most important chart is the following, which shows job changes starting in 1990. It’s easy to spot the recessions, and also to see that the Wichita economy has higher variability than the state or national economy. Since 1990, the Wichita and national economies were “equal” in terms of job creation as recently as 2009. Before then, if the Wichita economy fell behind, it was able to catch up with the nation. But that hasn’t been the case since the end of the Great Recession in 2009.

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    Notes

    1. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. 2019 Wichita Employment Forecast. May 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/2019-ict-forecast-may-revision.pdf. ↩
    2. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. Wichita Employment Forecast. October 3, 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/eoc/2020-wichita-forecast.pdf. ↩
  • Kansas jobs, September 2019

    Kansas jobs, September 2019

    Employment fell and the labor force rose, both by small amounts, in Kansas in September 2019 compared to the prior month. Kansas employment continued a trend of accelerating job growth in recent months and has matched the national rate for year-over-year growth.

    Data released this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mostly improving picture for employment in Kansas for September 2019. (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

    Using seasonally adjusted data, from August 2019 to September 2019, nonfarm employment in Kansas fell by 2,500, which is 0.2 percent. Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for September 2019 rose by 20,800 or 1.5 percent over last September. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is nearly the same at 20,700, or 1.5 percent.

    Over the year (September 2018 to September 2019), the Kansas labor force is down by 727 (0.0 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with an increase of 0.2 percent over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows an increase of 12,798 (0.9 percent) in the labor force over the year.

    The number of unemployed persons fell from August 2019 to September 2019 by 830, or 1.7 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.2 percent in September, down 0.1 percentage points from one year ago, and unchanged from August.

    Using seasonal data, Kansas nonfarm jobs increased by 1.47 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 1.44 percent. Non seasonal data shows Kansas nonfarm jobs rising by 1.45 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 1.44 percent.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    In the following chart of showing job changes from the same month one year ago, Kansas is always below the national rate except for September 2019, when Kansas slightly exceeded the national rate. The recent trend shows Kansas doing well compared to the nation.

    In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, Kansas has outperformed the nation four of the past five months.