In the first quarter of 2018, the Kansas economy grew at the annual rate of 0.5 percent in real terms, slowing from the previous quarter.
In the first quarter of 2018, the Kansas economy grew at the annual rate of 0.5 percent in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, according to statistics released today by Bureau of Economic Analysis, a division of the United States Department of Commerce. GDP for the quarter was at the annual rate of $161,551 million.
This is a decline in the rate of growth from the fourth quarter of 2017, when the rate was 2.3 percent.
Click for larger.The first quarter numbers put Kansas in 47th position among the states, with only Arkansas, Idaho, and North Dakota posting lower numbers. Quarterly GDP can be volatile, as shown in the nearby chart.
For Kansas, industries that differed markedly from the state average include:
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting, down by 1.08 percent.
Wholesale trade, down by 0.13 percent.
Management of companies and enterprises, up by 0.07 percent.
Administrative and support and waste management and remediation services, unchanged.
Educational services, up by 0.01 percent.
Arts, entertainment, and recreation, down by 0.03 percent.
Accomodation and food services, down by 0.03 percent.
For June 2018, more jobs in Kansas, and a nearly unchanged labor force. Wichita jobs also rose.
Data released this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows an improving jobs picture for Kansas in June 2018.
Over the year (June 2017 to June 2018), the Kansas labor force is down slightly, while up slightly over the past three months. These changes are small, all being in the range of 0.1 percent.
The number of unemployed persons continues to fall. The unemployment rate remains at 3.4 percent.
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The number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for June 2018 rose by 1.8 percent over last June, adding 24,800 jobs. This is using seasonally adjusted data, and the non-adjusted figure is larger at 30,900.
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This release also provided some data for metropolitan areas. For Wichita, here are employees on nonfarm payrolls, not seasonally adjusted
June 2017: 294,900
May 2018: 300,600
June 2018: 297,900 (up 3,000 jobs, or 1.0 percent over the year)
Comparing May 2018 to June 2018 isn’t meaningful using this data, as it is not adjusted for seasonality.
Recently Kansas Policy Institute, along with Americans for Prosperity and Kansas Chamber of Commerce, held a series of briefings for candidates for the Kansas Legislature. The presentations in Wichita were recorded, and are available as follows:
What Was Really the Matter with the Kansas Tax Plan. KPI President Dave Trabert spoke on the reality and myths of the state’s tax plan. Click here to view at YouTube.
Kansas K-12 Education Spending and Achievement. KPI President Dave Trabert spoke on K-12 education spending and achievement. Click here to view.
Medicaid Expansion. Melissa Fausz, a senior policy analyst with Americans for Prosperity, spoke about Medicaid expansion. Click here to view.
Kansas Chamber Legislative Update. Eric Stafford, vice president of government affairs for the Kansas Chamber of Commerce, spoke on the legislative process in Kansas. Click here to view.
Property Taxes. KPI President Dave Trabert spoke on property taxes in Kansas. Click here to view.
Kansas has a lot of government employees when compared to other states, and especially so in education.
Considering all government employees — state and local — Kansas has 68.35 full-time equivalent (FTE) employees per thousand residents. Only two states and the District of Columbia have more.
For total elementary and secondary education employment, Kansas has 30.64 such employees (full-time equivalent) per thousand residents. Only two states have more.
Looking at nearby states and some Plains states commonly thought to be big spenders (Iowa and Minnesota), Kansas has more employees and more education employees, again on a per-resident basis.
This data comes from the United States Census Bureau. I’ve gathered it and present it in an interactive visualization. Click here to learn more about the visualization and to use it yourself.
Example from the visualization, showing Kansas and selected states. Click for larger.
If Kansas government doesn’t have enough money to meet spending requests, it’s not for the lack of collecting taxes.
Here is a chart of state tax collections per resident, for Kansas and selected states.
Do you hear complaints of how Kansas is bankrupt and there is no money to spend on schools, roads, and other needs? If these complaints are valid (they aren’t), the problem is not caused by collecting insufficient tax revenue.
To learn more about the data in this visualization and to use it to make your own charts, click here.
State government tax collections per resident, Kansas and other states. Click for larger.
Wichita employment trends are positive for three consecutive months.
Seasonally adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a rise in the Wichita metropolitan area labor force and job count. This data is through May 2018 and shows three consecutive months of rising employment.
This is a reversal of the long term trend for Wichita, in which the labor force and employment have been falling or trending steady while the nation’s economy has been growing. An interactive visualization of employment data for all metropolitan areas is available here.
While the upward trend is welcome, it is not known whether Wichita can sustain positive growth.
In May, the forecast for Wichita from Center for Economic Development and Business Research (CEDBR) at Wichita State University was pessimistic: “The production sectors are projected to remain approximately flat in 2018. Natural resources and construction employment is forecast to increase by less than 100 jobs while manufacturing employment is projected to decline by less than 100 jobs.”
This decline in manufacturing employment is forecast even after the new Spirit Aerosystems jobs are accounted for. In its reporting on this forecast, the Wichita Eagle wrote:
Late last year, Spirit, the city’s largest employer, announced plans to hire an additional 1,000 mostly production workers over two years, with the bulk of the hiring expected in 2018. Bombardier announced plans to add 100 jobs when it moves its Global 5000 business jet interior completions work from Canada to Wichita later this year.
“I’m not so sure all of the positive news means we’re growing,” [CEDBR director Jeremy] Hill said.
He said the gains at Bombardier and Spirit are offset by contraction and consolidation by smaller manufacturers that supply parts to Spirit and other aircraft manufacturers. In some cases, work the smaller firms have done has been taken back by larger manufacturers, who are now doing it themselves. Retirements in aircraft manufacturing may also be affecting the numbers, Hill said, but he doesn’t have the data to confirm that.
“It is hard to get your hands on,” he said. “It’s definitely not showing up in the (employment) numbers, not showing up in output in durables manufacturing.”
A look at income in Wichita compared to other Midwest cities.
How much do Wichitans earn at their jobs, compared to other cities?
Click for larger.This data is of interest as recently James Chung told an audience that “average income” is $10,000 higher in Midwest comparable cities than in Wichita. He didn’t define the term “income,” he didn’t define the comparable cities, and he didn’t provide any sources of data. But mention of this is a good time to look at income in Wichita and other cities.
Occupational salaries
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, collects data regarding salaries of occupations in different cities in a program called Occupational Employment Statistics. More information about this program may be found here.
One way to examine income in different cities is to compare the salaries for different jobs using the OES data collected by BLS. I selected some cities to compare with Wichita: Cedar Rapids, IA; Colorado Springs, CO; Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA; Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO; Kansas City, MO-KS; Oklahoma City, OK; Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA; and Tulsa, OK. (The data is collected for Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), not cities. But it seems more natural to use the term city.)
The OES dataset is large, holding data on over 800 occupations, and it’s unwieldy to make apt comparisons. Besides what I report below, I’ve also created an interactive visualization of the OES data. In the interactive visualization, you may select any cities and occupations for comparison. Click here to learn more and use it.
Occupational salary example. Click for larger.Considering all occupations for this sampling of cities, the annual salary in Wichita is $43,880, while it is $50,600 in Des Moines. That’s $6,720 lower in Wichita, or 13 percent.
Considering a few semi-random occupations: For buyers and purchasing agents, the highest salary is in Cedar Rapids at $75,830. The Wichita salary is $9,640 less, while the Des Moines salary is $15,070 less.
For food service managers, the highest salary is in Colorado Springs at $66,300. The Wichita salary is $1,520 less, while the Des Moines salary is $21,270 less.
For police officers, the highest salary is in Colorado Springs at $68,980. The Wichita salary is $21,670 less, while the Des Moines salary is $4,310 less.
For telemarketers, the highest salary is in Fayetteville at $27,760. The Wichita salary is $1,860 less, while the Des Moines salary is $2,100 less.
For the broad category of architecture and engineering occupations, Wichita is the leader in the sample at $82,710. Des Moines is at $71.930, which is $10,780 lower.
For the broad category of production workers, Wichita again leads the sample at $44,950, while Des Moines is at $35,190, which is $9,760 lower.
Personal income
Another set of data that can help is personal income. For Des Moines, personal income per person is $50,677 (complete year 2016). For Wichita, the value is $47,395, which is $3,282 less. (For an interactive visualization of personal income, see Visualization: Personal income by metropolitan area.)
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Difficulties
Comparing average salaries for groups of occupations in different cities has problems. One is the number of workers in occupations. Considering management occupations, there are few chief executive officers but many other managers. The weight of the number of workers needs to be considered.
Also, the magnitude of salaries is an issue. Chief executive officer salaries vary widely, by tens of thousands of dollars. The data tells us that a CEO in Wichita earns $65,400 less than in Des Moines. That variation is greater than the average salary across all occupations, and provides little insight into the salaries of the majority of workers.
The per capita personal income figures overcome these obstacles.
$10,000
Do Wichitans earn $10,000 less than in comparable Midwest cities, as James Chung recently presented? Based on per capita personal income, the answer is no. Not even close to that, although Wichita’s per capita income is not encouraging.
Based on occupational salaries, Wichitans earn less than many comparable Midwest cities, but nothing near $10,000 less when all occupations are considered. In specific occupations, Wichita salaries are much less, but in some cases Wichita salaries are highest.
Kansas personal income rose at the annual rate of 4.2 percent in the first quarter of 2018, compared to the previous quarter. Compared to the same quarter of 2017, the increase was 2.2 percent.
The quarterly change for the first quarter ranked 32 among the states.
Major contributors to the change in personal income were farm earnings down 0.61 percent, durable goods manufacturing up 0.88 percent, finance and insurance up 0.53, professional, scientific, and technical services up 0.39, and health care and social assistance up 0.48.
