Tag: Greater Wichita Partnership

For the Wichita metropolitan area in October 2020, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down, all by large amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago. The recent trend, however, is positive.

Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effects of the response to the pandemic in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for October 2020.

Click charts and tables for larger versions.

Total nonfarm employment fell from 307,600 last October to 295,800 in October 2020, a loss of 11,800 jobs (3.8 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation fell by 6.0 percent. The unemployment rate in October 2020 was 6.8 percent, up from 3.1 percent one year ago.

Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 6,964 persons (2.2 percent) in October 2020 from September 2020, the number of unemployed persons fell by 3,262 (12.3 percent), and the unemployment rate was 7.2 percent, down from 8.4 percent in September. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 298,462 in October from 288,236 the prior month, an increase of 10,226 persons (3.5 percent). (See note below.)

The following chart of the monthly change in the labor force and employment in Wichita shows the magnitude of the drop in April overwhelming other months, and then a positive change in employment for the following months, the months of little change, and then strong growth in October.

The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a similar same trend — fewer jobs, although the difference is becoming smaller as more people return to work.

The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation before the pandemic. In all months affected by the pandemic, we see the loss in employment Wichita has not been as severe as the nation.

The following chart shows the monthly change in nonfarm jobs for Wichita and the nation. For September, the number of jobs in Wichita was unchanged, while for the nation, the number grew a small amount. For the last four months, Wichita employment has been growing at a rate slower than the national rate.

The link to the archived version of the BLS news release for this month is here.

The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation. Since the pandemic, however, Wichita has been outperforming the nation.

(For data on all metropolitan areas in the nation, see my interactive visualization Metro area employment and unemployment. It is updated through October 2020.)

A note: There are two series of employment data used by me to produce these tables and charts. One series comes from CES, the establishment survey, and another comes from a program called Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates, or SSAM. Usually, there is not much difference in the data from the two sources. For October 2020, the SSAM value is 2.0 percent higher than the CES value. For the two previous months the SSAM value was lower by 1.5 percent and 1.6 percent from the CES value. This is much larger than the average difference of 0.3 percent for the previous 18 months. I’ve inquired to BLS and will update as I find an explanation.

For the Wichita metropolitan area in September 2020, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down, all by large amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago. The recent trend, however, is positive, although Wichita is recovering slower than the nation.

Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effects of the response to the pandemic in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for September 2020.

Click charts and tables for larger versions.

Total nonfarm employment fell from 306,400 last September to 292,200 in September 2020, a loss of 14,200 jobs (4.6 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation fell by 6.4 percent. The unemployment rate in September 2020 was 8.0 percent, up from 3.0 percent one year ago.

Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force fell by 5,050 persons (1.6 percent) in September 2020 from August 2020, the number of unemployed persons fell by 5,943 (18.3 percent), and the unemployment rate was 8.4 percent, down from 10.1 percent in August. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 288,236 in September from 287,343 the prior month, an increase of 893 persons (0.3 percent).

The following chart of the monthly change in the labor force and employment in Wichita shows the magnitude of drop in April overwhelming other months, and then a positive change in employment for the following months, although the change is becoming smaller and was zero for September. Note the fall in the labor force for the last two months.

The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a similar same trend — fewer jobs, although the labor force is larger except for September.

The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation before the pandemic. In all months affected by the pandemic, we see the decline in employment Wichita has not been as severe as the nation.

The following chart shows the monthly change in nonfarm jobs for Wichita and the nation. For September, the number of jobs in Wichita was unchanged, while for the nation, the number grew a small amount. For the last four months, Wichita employment has been growing at a rate slower than the national rate.

The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation. Since the pandemic, however, Wichita has been outperforming the nation.

(For data on all metropolitan areas in the nation, see my interactive visualization Metro area employment and unemployment.)

For the Wichita metropolitan area in August 2020, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down, all by large amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago. The recent trend, however, is positive, although Wichita is recovering slower than the nation.

Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effects of the response to the pandemic in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for August 2020.

Click charts and tables for larger versions.

Total nonfarm employment fell from 303,900 last August to 289,100 in August 2020, a loss of 14,800 jobs (4.9 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation fell by 7.0 percent. The unemployment rate in August 2020 was 10.2 percent, up from 3.6 percent one year ago.

Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force fell by 1,201 persons (0.4 percent) in August 2020 from July 2020, the number of unemployed persons fell by 1,962 (5.7 percent), and the unemployment rate was 10.1 percent, down from 10.7 percent in June. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 287,361 in August from 286,600 the prior month, an increase of 761 persons (0.3 percent).

The following chart of the monthly change in the labor force and employment shows the magnitude of drop in April overwhelming other months, and then a positive change in employment for the following months. The rate of increase in employment has generally slowed since a large jump in May. Note the fall in the labor force for the month.

The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a similar same trend — fewer jobs, although the labor force is larger.

The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. In all months affected by the pandemic, we see the decline in employment Wichita has not been as severe as the nation.

The following chart shows the monthly change in nonfarm jobs for Wichita and the nation. For August, the change was nearly the same for Wichita and the nation, but in the two previous months jobs grew slower in Wichita.

The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

(For data on all metropolitan areas in the nation, see my interactive visualization Metro area employment and unemployment.)

For the Wichita metropolitan area in July 2020, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down, all by large amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago. The recent trend, however, is positive, and the effects of the pandemic have been less severe for Wichita than for the nation.

Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effects of the response to the pandemic in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for July 2020.

Click charts and tables for larger versions.

Total nonfarm employment fell from 302,000 last July to 284,800 in July 2020, a loss of 17,200 jobs (5.7 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation fell by 7.7 percent. The unemployment rate in July 2020 was 10.9 percent, up from 3.9 percent one year ago.

Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 564 persons (0.2 percent) in July 2020 from June 2020, the number of unemployed persons fell by 289 (0.8 percent), and the unemployment rate was 10.8 percent, down from 10.9 percent in June. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 284,162 in July from 283,309 the prior month, an increase of 853 persons (0.3 percent).

The following chart of the monthly change in the labor force and employment shows the magnitude of drop in April overwhelming other months, and then a positive change in employment for the following months. The rate of increase in employment has slowed since a large jump in May.

The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a similar same trend — fewer jobs, although the labor force grew.

The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows many months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. In all months affected by the pandemic, we see the decline in employment Wichita has not been as severe as the nation.

The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

(For data on all metropolitan areas in the nation, see my interactive visualization Metro area employment and unemployment.)

Wichita leaders want to diversify the area economy. Has there been progress?

In the wake of layoffs at Textron Aviation and Spirit Aerosystems, Wichita’s leaders shifted their attention to the need to diversify the Wichita metropolitan area economy. This has been a recognized need for a long time. ¹

Recently the Wichita Eagle published an article addressing this matter. ² It did not, however, cite any statistics that measure the diversity — or lack of — in the Wichita economy.

One way to measure the concentration of an industry in a location is by the proportion of employment in that industry. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides the number of employees by industry for metropolitan areas. I’ve gathered the data for the Wichita MSA for two industries: Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing (NAICS code 3364) and all manufacturing. I compare it to total private sector employment. This data is not adjusted for seasonality, as some are available only in that manner. Data is through June 2020.

First, note the effects on employment due to the response to the pandemic.

Here are the employment ratios.

As the charts illustrate, there was a large downward shift in the two industry’s share of employment around the time of the Great Recession. Since then, the ratios have been more stable, with a slow decline until a small reversal of that trend over the last two years until the effects of the pandemic. That caused the ratios of employment in manufacturing to fall.

The charts of employment ratio changes from the same month one year ago confirms: Manufacturing and aerospace employment has grown faster than total private employment for the last two years or so, until the pandemic.

Another way to measure the concentration of industry is through location quotients. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides these, most notably for counties as part of the Quarterly of Census and Wages. ³ As described by BLS, “Location quotients are useful for studying the composition of jobs in an area relative to the average, or for finding areas that have high concentrations of jobs in certain occupations. As measured here, a location quotient shows the occupation’s share of an area’s employment relative to the national average.” ⁴

Further: “For example, a location quotient of 2.0 indicates that an occupation accounts for twice the share of employment in the area than it does nationally, and a location quotient of 0.5 indicates the area’s share of employment in the occupation is half the national share.”

This data is available by industry. I’ve gathered data for Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing (NAICS code 3364) for Sedgwick County and present it in a nearby chart. Data is through the end of 2019, and so does not reflect the pandemic.

First, note that the location quotient is large, averaging around 32 in recent years. This means the concentration of workers in this industry in Sedgwick County is 32 times the concentration nationwide.

Second, the location quotient fell from 2007 through 2014. Since then, it has been steady.

Has the Wichita area diversified its economy? Based on these two measures, the answer is yes. That increase in diversity coincided with a large decline in aviation-related employment, with that decline being larger than the decline in all Wichita-area private-sector employment. That was not planned or desired. It was a result of worldwide trends, most notably the Great Recession.

But since 2014, concentration in aviation-related employment has changed little, meaning no progress in diversification.

—
Notes

For the Wichita metropolitan area in May 2020, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down, all by large amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago, but improving from April.

Data released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effects of the response to the pandemic in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for May 2020.

Click charts and tables for larger versions.

Total nonfarm employment fell from 307,500 last May to 285,000 in May 2020, a loss of 22,500 jobs (7.3 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation fell by 11.7 percent. The unemployment rate in May 2020 was 13.9 percent, up from 3.2 percent one year ago.

Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 4,407 persons (1.3 percent) in May 2020 from April 2020, the number of unemployed persons fell by 14,143 (23.2 percent), and the unemployment rate was 14.2 percent, down from 18.2 percent in April. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 283,562 in May from 273,826 the prior month, an increase of 9,736 persons (3.6 percent).

The following chart of the monthly change in the labor force and employment shows the magnitude of the drop in April overwhelming other months, and then a positive change in May.

The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a similar same trend — fewer jobs, although the labor force grew.

The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. For April and May 2020, the two full months first affected by the pandemic, we see the decline in employment Wichita has not been as severe as the nation..

The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

For the Wichita metropolitan area in April 2020, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down, all by large amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows the same trend.

Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effects of the response to the pandemic in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for April 2020.

Click charts and tables for larger versions.

Total nonfarm employment fell from 306,700 last April to 274,400 in April 2020, a loss of 32,300 jobs (10.5 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation fell by 12.9 percent. The unemployment rate in April 2020 was 17.8 percent, up from 3.0 percent one year ago.

Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 15,214 persons (4.8 percent) in April 2020 from March 2020, the number of unemployed persons rose by 50,106 (460.8 percent), and the unemployment rate was 18.3 percent, up from 3.4 percent in March. The number of employed persons not working on farms fell to 272,446 in April from 307,338 the prior month, a decline of 34,892 persons (11.4 percent).

The following chart of the monthly change in the labor force and employment shows the magnitude of change in April overwhelming other months. Note that the labor force rose.

The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows the same trend.

The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 0.23 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 0.69 percent.

The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.