Category: Economics
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Inflation Holds at 3.7% in July: What the Fed’s Favorite Price Gauge Says About Your Wallet
The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge ran hotter than expected in July as real spending stalled and payrolls fell. Here’s what the July 2026 PCE inflation report means for interest rates, prices, and your budget.
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How Much Did Labor Productivity Gains Offset the Inflationary Impact of the 2025 Tariffs?
The specific claim – that firms held prices down to protect market share while cutting costs to restore margin – isn’t what this paper shows.
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Trump’s Beef Tariff Deal: Fact-Check & Economic Analysis
Trump says a 90-day beef tariff deal will cut prices and let the U.S. herd rebuild. The herd-size claim checks out, but the ‘fastest price rise under Biden’ claim doesn’t survive the data, and the deal’s economics work against the rebuild goal.
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The Great Transshipment Scam: White House’s Tariff Evasion Report: What It Claims, What’s Disputed”
The White House says tariff-dodging through ‘transshipment’ costs $19-26 billion a year. We walk through the report’s own numbers, the economists who are pushing back, and what’s genuinely uncertain
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Why Is No One Talking About the Manufacturing Boom?
Claims of a new American manufacturing renaissance cite rising ISM readings, foreign investment, and factory-related employment. But a closer examination of federal data reveals a more complicated picture. Here is what the numbers actually show.
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July CPI Holds at 3.4%: Inflation Matches Forecasts as Energy Spike Fades, But the Fed Faces a Split Decision
July’s CPI report came in exactly as economists expected: 3.4% annual inflation, core prices at 2.5%. Energy’s spring spike is fading from the numbers, but a weak jobs report complicates the Fed’s next move.
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July Jobs Report: Payrolls Fall 23,000 as Labor Market Loses Momentum
The economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a stunning miss versus forecasts near 83,000. Add in 103,000 in downward revisions to May and June, and the labor market looks far weaker than it did a month ago.
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RFK Jr.’s CNN Interview: Fact-Checking His Claims on COVID, Measles
HHS Secretary RFK Jr. clashed with CNN’s Dana Bash over COVID, measles, and autism research. We fact-check his most disputed claims, one by one, against the evidence.
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U.S. GDP Q2 2026: Growth Slows to 1.5% as Inflation Heats Back Up
U.S. GDP grew 1.5% in Q2 2026, well below the 2.1% economists expected. Consumer spending and AI-driven investment stayed strong, but a widening trade deficit and a jump in inflation complicate the picture heading into the Fed’s next move.
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Workers Got a Rare Raise in June — But It Came From Falling Prices, Not Bigger Paychecks
June 2026 brought workers their best real-wage gain in over a year — but it came from falling gas prices, not stronger pay. With oil prices climbing again over Iran tensions, the relief may not last.
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Inflation Just Posted Its Biggest One-Month Drop Since the Pandemic — Here’s Why That’s More Complicated Than It Sounds
June’s CPI report posted the biggest one-month price drop since the pandemic, driven almost entirely by a gasoline price reversal tied to the Iran war easing. Core inflation, the number the Fed watches most, barely budged.
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May 2026 Trade Deficit Jumps to $77.6 Billion — Gold Swings and Oil Prices Explain Most of It
America’s trade gap widened sharply in May, but a gold-shipment reversal and Iran-war oil prices explain much of the jump. Here’s what beat forecasts, what didn’t, and what it means for the Fed’s July decision.