(Analysis by Claude)
This scatter plot reveals a fascinating relationship between political preferences and economic prosperity across US states. Let me walk you through what we’re seeing here.
The chart plots each state’s per capita GDP in 2022 (measured in inflation-adjusted 2017 dollars) against the percentage of votes Donald Trump received in that state during the 2020 presidential election. The size of each bubble corresponds to the state’s population, so larger states appear as bigger circles.
The most striking pattern is the clear negative correlation: as Trump’s vote share increases (moving right on the chart), per capita GDP tends to decrease (moving down). This creates a downward-sloping cloud of states from the upper left to the lower right.
Let’s examine some key clusters and outliers:
High GDP, Low Trump Support: States like Massachusetts, New York, California, and Connecticut cluster in the upper left corner. These states have per capita GDPs above $75,000 and gave Trump less than 40% of their votes. Washington state also fits this pattern. These tend to be states with major metropolitan areas and knowledge-based economies.
Low GDP, High Trump Support: States like Mississippi, West Virginia, and Arkansas appear in the lower right, with per capita GDPs below $50,000 and Trump vote shares above 60%. These are generally more rural states with economies historically based on agriculture, mining, or manufacturing.
Notable Exceptions: Some states break the pattern in interesting ways. Alaska, for instance, has relatively high per capita GDP (around $70,000) despite strong Trump support (about 53%). This likely reflects Alaska’s oil wealth. North Dakota and Wyoming show similar patterns, also benefiting from natural resource extraction.
Middle Ground: States like Texas, Florida, and Georgia occupy a middle position, with moderate Trump support (around 50-55%) and middle-range per capita GDPs ($60,000-65,000).
This correlation likely reflects several underlying factors. Wealthier states tend to have more college-educated residents, more diverse economies, and larger urban populations – all demographics that leaned away from Trump in 2020. Meanwhile, states with lower per capita GDP often have more rural populations and traditional industries that have faced economic challenges from globalization and technological change – communities where Trump’s message resonated strongly.
However, it’s crucial to remember that correlation doesn’t imply causation. The relationship between voting patterns and economic prosperity is complex and influenced by many factors including geography, history, education levels, industrial composition, and cultural values. The chart shows an association, but voting for or against Trump doesn’t directly cause high or low GDP, nor does GDP determine voting behavior in a simple way.