Examining the significant factual claims made during this rally, providing context and verification where possible. As a fact-checker, my goal is to help you understand not just whether claims are accurate, but also the important context surrounding them.
For a summary of the rally, see Trump Rallies Pennsylvania Base with Economic Claims, Policy Updates, and 2026 Midterm Preview. Assistance from Claude AI.
Economic Investment Claims: The $18 Trillion Figure
Claim: Trump stated his administration secured approximately $18 trillion in new investments in ten months, calling it “the largest investment ever made in the history of not our country, of any country anywhere in the world.”
Verdict: Unverifiable and almost certainly inflated
Analysis: The $18 trillion figure represents a dramatic inflation of actual commitments and conflates several different types of financial activity. According to multiple independent analyses and even the White House’s own published data, the actual total of announced investment commitments is substantially lower—ranging from approximately $5 trillion to $7 trillion depending on the counting method and date. Even these lower figures require significant context.
First, it’s important to understand what these numbers actually represent. They are announcements of future investment intentions, not money that has been invested or is guaranteed to materialize. Historical precedent shows that corporate investment pledges frequently fail to fully materialize. During Trump’s first term, similar announcements were made that didn’t come to fruition.
Second, the White House list includes several types of financial activity that aren’t actually “investments in America.” For example, the $1.2 trillion attributed to Qatar represents an “economic exchange” target—essentially a bilateral trade goal—not Qatar investing $1.2 trillion in American businesses. Similarly, India’s $500 billion figure represents a target to double total bilateral trade by 2030, not a singular investment commitment. Saudi Arabia’s $600 billion includes purchases of American weapons and aircraft, which are sales transactions rather than investments in productive capacity.
Third, many of these announced commitments were already in progress before Trump took office. The Stargate AI project, for $500 billion, had been in development for at least ten months before Trump’s inauguration, according to company spokespersons. Micron Technology’s $200 billion commitment includes $120 billion that was announced in 2022 under Biden administration policies and was supported by $6 billion from the CHIPS and Science Act.
Fourth, the timeframes vary wildly and make comparisons misleading. Some pledges are for Trump’s four-year term, others span five years, and some extend over a decade. Japan’s much-touted “$1 trillion investment” actually represented increasing existing investment from $783 billion to $1 trillion—a net increase of about $217 billion, not $1 trillion in new money.
Finally, actual federal data on real investment shows a much more modest picture. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, gross private domestic investment in the United States is projected to total approximately $5.4 trillion for all of 2025—an increase of only about $100 billion from 2024. This represents the actual money being spent, as opposed to announced future intentions.
References:
Bloomberg Economics. (2025, November). Trump’s $21 trillion investment boom is actually short trillions. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2025-trump-investment-boom-trillions/
Bureau of Economic Analysis. (2025). National income and product accounts: GDP [Data set]. U.S. Department of Commerce. https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Dale, D. (2025, October 11). Fact check: Trump’s ‘$17 trillion’ investment figure is fiction. CNN Politics. https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/11/politics/fact-check-trump-17-trillion-investment
Greenberg, J. (2025, December 9). Trump says the US secured at least $18 trillion worth of investments this year. That’s wrong. PolitiFact. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2025/dec/09/donald-trump/foreign-corporate-investment-18-22-trillion/
Miller, S. C., & Wilson, R. (2025, November). Trump touts over $20 trillion in new U.S. investments, but the numbers don’t add up. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-20-trillion-new-us-investments-numbers-dont-add-up/
White House. (2025, August 15). Trump effect: A running list of new U.S. investment in President Trump’s second term. https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/08/trump-effect-a-running-list-of-new-u-s-investment-in-president-trumps-second-term/
Stock Market Record Highs
Claim: Trump stated the stock market “has set 51 all-time record highs” in less than 10 months, describing this as unprecedented.
Verdict: Requires verification of exact number but likely inflated
Analysis: While stock markets have indeed reached record highs during 2025, the specific claim of 51 record highs is difficult to verify and the overall picture is far more complex than Trump suggested. The stock market’s performance under Trump’s second term has been characterized by extreme volatility rather than steady growth.
Here’s what actually happened: After Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, markets initially rose to reach record highs in February. However, in early April, Trump announced sweeping tariffs that triggered one of the worst market selloffs in modern history. The S&P 500 fell nearly 20% from its February peak, coming close to bear market territory (defined as a 20% decline). In just two trading sessions, over $5 trillion in market value was wiped out—the largest two-day loss in history.
Markets only recovered after the Trump administration walked back some of its most aggressive tariff proposals. From April through July, the S&P 500 climbed back, eventually setting new records in late June and continuing to hit highs through the fall and early winter. As of December 2025, markets are trading near all-time highs.
However, the year-to-date performance tells a different story than Trump’s triumphant narrative suggests. Through mid-December, the S&P 500 was up approximately 14-19% since Inauguration Day (depending on the exact measurement date)—solid but not extraordinary. For context, the S&P 500 rose approximately 38% during the same period of Biden’s term, which ranks as the best first-year performance on record.
The claim of 51 specific record closing highs cannot be independently verified from available data. News reports from July mentioned “eight record highs in the past month,” but comprehensive tracking of every record high throughout the year is not readily available in public sources. It’s worth noting that in strong bull markets, multiple record highs are common since each new peak technically sets a record, so the number itself may not be as significant as it sounds.
More importantly, Trump’s framing ignores the extreme volatility and the $5 trillion in wealth destruction that occurred in April. Investors interviewed by financial news outlets attributed the recovery not primarily to Trump’s policies but rather to his administration’s retreat from the most severe tariff proposals, combined with strong corporate earnings—particularly from technology companies investing in artificial intelligence—and expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates.
References:
Bender, A. (2025, November 4). Trump’s undeniable stock market victory that no one saw coming. CNN Business. https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/04/markets/us-stock-market
Bowman, J. (2025, July 18). Stock market highs six months into Trump’s term. Kiplinger. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/stocks/how-the-stock-market-performed-first-six-months-of-trumps-second-term
Isidore, C., & Luhby, T. (2025, July 23). The stock market is on a hot streak. It’s about to face a huge test. CNN Business. https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/23/investing/us-stock-market
Kilgore, T. (2025, May 17). U.S. stocks are nearing record highs again after a furious rally. Fortune. https://fortune.com/2025/05/17/us-stock-market-outlook-record-highs-sp500-trump-tariffs-trade-war/
Stein, J., & Greenberg, S. (2025, June 27). S&P 500 hits an all-time high—rebounding to its level when Trump’s second term began. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/sp-500-hits-new-all-time-high-what-to-know-rcna215221
U.S. Bank. (2025, December 2). Stock market under the Trump administration. https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/stock-market-under-trump.html
White House. (2025, August). Trump economy ignites record-breaking earnings surge, market boom. https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/08/trump-economy-ignites-record-breaking-earnings-surge-market-boom/
Border Security: Zero Illegal Crossings Claim
Claim: Trump stated that “for seven months in a row, we’ve had zero illegal aliens that have been admitted to the United States” and that the border has been closed for months with “zero” crossings except for legal entries.
Verdict: Almost certainly false; requires verification with official data
Analysis: Trump’s claim is misleadingly framed and conflates two different statistics. While border encounters have dropped dramatically to historic lows, the claim of “zero” illegal immigration is false. What’s actually true is more nuanced and still represents a significant policy achievement, but understanding the difference is important.
Here’s what the official government data actually shows: Throughout 2025, thousands of people have continued to attempt illegal border crossings each month. In May 2025, Border Patrol encountered 8,725 people crossing the southwest border illegally. In June, there were 8,024 apprehensions. In November, preliminary data showed continued encounters, though at record low levels. These are “encounters” or “apprehensions”—meaning people were caught attempting to cross illegally.
However, what has changed dramatically is what happens after these encounters. According to Customs and Border Protection statements, for seven consecutive months (through November 2025), Border Patrol “released zero illegal aliens into the United States.” This means every person apprehended was either immediately deported, held in detention, or processed in some other way without being released into the U.S. interior pending future court hearings. This represents a major policy shift from the previous administration, when many apprehended migrants were released into the United States to await immigration court proceedings—a practice critics called “catch and release.”
So Trump’s statement mixes two different concepts: attempted crossings (which haven’t reached zero but have dropped by over 90% compared to 2024) and releases into the interior (which the administration claims have been zero for seven months).
The decrease in attempted crossings is genuinely dramatic and historically significant. Border Patrol apprehensions have averaged under 10,000 per month since Trump took office—approximately 330 per day in February, dropping to around 258 per day by October. This compares to a daily average of over 5,000 per day during much of the Biden administration. These are the lowest levels recorded in CBP’s modern history.
What’s driving these low numbers? According to border security experts, the decrease results from multiple factors: stricter enforcement policies, the end of release-into-interior practices, diplomatic agreements with Mexico and Central American countries to prevent migrant flows before they reach the U.S. border, and the deterrent effect of highly publicized mass deportations. The administration has also implemented military support for border operations and accelerated deportation proceedings.
It’s worth noting that “zero releases” doesn’t mean zero people in the United States who crossed illegally—it means zero people were released by Border Patrol during this period. People who evade detection (known as “gotaways”), those who were already in the country, and those held in detention facilities pending deportation are not reflected in these statistics.
References:
U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (2025, April). CBP releases April 2025 monthly update. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/cbp-releases-april-2025-monthly-update
U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (2025, June). CBP releases May 2025 monthly update. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/cbp-releases-may-2025-monthly-update
U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (2025, July). Most secure border in history: CBP reports major enforcement wins in June 2025. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/most-secure-border-history-cbp-reports-major-enforcement-wins-june
U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (2025, December 4). Border crossings once again at a record low in November 2025. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/border-crossings-once-again-record-low-november-2025
U.S. Department of Homeland Security. (2025, November 5). DHS delivers historic start to border crossings for FY 2026. https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/11/05/dhs-delivers-historic-start-border-crossings-fy-2026
U.S. Department of Homeland Security. (2025, December 4). Border crossings once again at a record low in November 2025. https://www.dhs.gov/news/2025/12/04/border-crossings-once-again-record-low-november-2025
Food Price Claims: Eggs, Turkey, and Overall Prices
Claim: Trump stated eggs are “down 80 percent since March,” Thanksgiving turkeys were “down by 33 percent compared to the Biden era,” and various food prices are decreasing significantly.
Verdict: Mixed—some prices have decreased but context and magnitude are often exaggerated
Analysis: Trump’s claim about egg prices contains elements of truth but significantly overstates both the magnitude of decline and his administration’s role in it. The reality is more nuanced and involves factors largely outside presidential control.
Egg prices did indeed fall dramatically during 2025, but the pattern and causes tell a different story than Trump suggested. In early 2025, the United States faced its worst avian influenza (bird flu) outbreak in modern history. By March, over 44 million egg-laying chickens had died or been culled in just three months (December 2024 through February 2025). This supply shock caused wholesale egg prices to spike to $8.17 per dozen in early March and retail prices to hit $5.90 per dozen in February—a ten-year high.
However, the decline happened primarily because bird flu outbreaks subsided naturally in March. According to the USDA’s own market reports, “no significant outbreaks of HPAI [highly pathogenic avian influenza] have been detected” in mid-March, which “rapidly improved” the supply situation. Wholesale prices fell from $8.17 on March 3 to $3.27 by March 21—a decline of about 60% in less than three weeks.
By September 2025, retail prices had stabilized at $3.49 per dozen according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Calculating from various baseline points, the actual decline ranges from about 40% (from early March wholesale peaks) to about 57% (from February retail peaks) depending on whether you compare wholesale-to-wholesale or retail-to-retail. The 80% figure Trump cited doesn’t align with official government data regardless of which baseline you use.
More importantly, agricultural economists and the USDA’s own reports attributed the price decline to the natural disease cycle, not administration policy. As one Cato Institute economist noted, similar price spikes and subsequent declines occurred in 2022-2023 with the previous major bird flu outbreak, following the same supply-and-demand pattern. When bird flu subsides and flocks recover, egg production increases and prices normalize.
Trump did announce a $1 billion investment to combat avian flu, which may help with future outbreaks. However, the price decline in March occurred because outbreaks naturally subsided—not because of this or any other specific policy intervention. The administration’s Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins did coordinate with the industry, but the fundamental driver was disease epidemiology, not policy.
It’s also worth noting that the price decline was measured against an artificial spike. Eggs had cost around $2-3 per dozen through most of 2023 and early 2024 before the bird flu outbreak. So while September 2025 prices of $3.49 represented a significant decline from the February peak, they were actually slightly higher than pre-outbreak normal levels.
References:
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. (2025). Average price: Eggs, grade A, large (cost per dozen) in U.S. city average [Data set]. FRED Economic Data. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000708111
Lott, M., & Fichera, A. (2025, March 21). Q&A on egg prices. FactCheck.org. https://www.factcheck.org/2025/03/qa-on-egg-prices/
Meyersohn, N. (2025, April 2). Egg prices are falling. But there’s a catch. CNN Business. https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/02/business/egg-prices-fall-usda
Schoen, J. W. (2025, March 13). Egg prices are rapidly falling so far in March. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/13/egg-prices-are-rapidly-falling-so-far-in-march.html
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (2025). Average price data, selected items [Data tables]. https://www.bls.gov/charts/consumer-price-index/consumer-price-index-average-price-data.htm
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Marketing Service. (2025, December 5). Egg markets overview. USDA Market News. https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ams_3725.pdf
Summary of Fact-Check Findings
Focusing on Trump’s most significant and verifiable claims, here’s what the evidence shows:
Investment Claims ($18 trillion): Dramatically inflated. The White House’s own published lists show $5-7 trillion in announced commitments (not actual investments), many of which were already planned before Trump took office, include trade targets rather than investments, and span timeframes of 5-10 years rather than ten months.
Stock Market Records (51 highs): Unverifiable in exact number. Markets have reached record highs but experienced extreme volatility including a near-20% crash in April before recovering. Year-to-date performance is solid but not extraordinary compared to historical standards.
Border Security (zero crossings): Misleading conflation. While Border Patrol has released zero apprehended migrants into the interior for seven months (a significant policy change), thousands of people continue to be apprehended monthly attempting illegal crossings. The claim of “zero” illegal immigration is false; what’s accurate is zero releases of those caught.
Egg Prices (down 80%): Exaggerated and causally misleading. Prices declined 40-60% from peak levels (depending on measurement) due primarily to natural subsidence of avian flu outbreaks, not administration policy. The 80% figure doesn’t match official USDA or BLS data.
The pattern across these claims reveals consistent exaggeration of positive data, misattribution of causation to administration policies when other factors were primary drivers, and conflation of different statistics to create misleading impressions. While some underlying trends (border enforcement improvements, market recovery, price stabilization) represent genuine developments, the specific claims made systematically overstate magnitude and presidential influence.