This fact-check reveals a pattern: while some claims (40 states with medical marijuana, Medicare beneficiary numbers) are straightforwardly accurate, others (insurance stock performance, Ukraine casualties, the 82% polling figure) are either misleadingly framed, lack proper context, or cannot be verified with available data. The most troubling claims are those presenting statistics without clear sourcing, as they’re difficult for the public to verify independently. As a fact-checker, I’m looking for whether claims are supported by evidence, appropriately contextualized, and presented accurately to the public.
For a summary of the event, see Trump Signs Executive Order Rescheduling Marijuana, Expands Medicare Coverage for Cannabis Products. Assistance from Claude AI.
Insurance Company Stock Performance Claims
Trump’s Claim: “You know, their stocks are up 1,400 percent, 1,800 percent and 1,624 percent. Their stocks are up through the roof over a fairly short period of time because they’re getting vast amounts of money.”
Let me search for data on health insurance company stock performance to verify these specific percentages.Let me search for more claims to verify.Let me check a few more claims before compiling the comprehensive fact-check.Now I’ll compile a comprehensive fact-check of the major claims from the event.
Trump’s Insurance Company Stock Performance Claims
The Claim: Trump stated that insurance company stocks “are up 1,400 percent, 1,800 percent and 1,624 percent” and described them as “up through the roof over a fairly short period of time.”
The Reality: This claim requires substantial context about timeframes and is partially accurate but misleading in important ways. The numbers Trump cited appear to reference long-term gains since the Affordable Care Act was enacted in 2010, not recent performance—but he framed them as happening over “a fairly short period of time,” which misrepresents the actual timeframe.
When we examine the actual data, health insurance stocks have experienced two very different periods. From 2010 to around 2023-2024, major health insurers did see extraordinary gains that align roughly with Trump’s percentages. Analysis by the Paragon Institute found that the weighted average of health insurer stock prices increased by 1,032 percent from 2010 through 2024, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 251 percent gain over the same period. Individual companies showed even more dramatic growth during this 14-year span—UnitedHealth Group shares jumped over 700 percent, and Centene multiplied by twelve times (1,100 percent).
However, Trump’s characterization of these gains happening over “a fairly short period of time” is misleading. These increases occurred over more than a decade, not recently. More critically, the recent trend contradicts his broader point. As of December 2025, UnitedHealth stock is down 28.3 percent for the year and down 36.4 percent over the past twelve months. The company has experienced a market capitalization decline of almost 45 percent since the end of the first quarter of 2025. In other words, while health insurance stocks did experience massive gains over the 14-year period following the ACA’s passage, they are currently experiencing significant losses.
The disconnect between Trump’s claim and current reality is striking. He used these stock performance figures to argue that insurance companies are currently “making a fortune” from the ACA, but the most recent data shows major insurers are actually struggling. UnitedHealth revised its full-year earnings forecast dramatically downward in 2025, lowering expected earnings per share to at least $16—significantly lower than its earlier projection of up to $30. The company cited rising medical costs and has exited certain Medicare Advantage markets in response to financial pressures.
Paragon Institute. (2024, March 20). Insurer stock prices soaring after giant ACA subsidies. https://paragoninstitute.org/paragon-pic/insurer-stock-prices-soaring-after-giant-aca-subsidies/
Oliver Wyman. (2025, May). Analyzing financial trends of health insurance in Q1 2025. https://www.oliverwyman.com/our-expertise/insights/2025/may/health-insurer-financial-insights-q1-2025.html
American Association of Individual Investors. (2025, October 24). Which is a better investment, Cigna Corp or UnitedHealth Group Inc stock? https://www.aaii.com/investingideas/article/25784
Council of Economic Advisers. (2018, March). The profitability of health insurance companies. Trump White House Archives. https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/The-Profitability-of-Health-Insurance-Companies.pdf
The 82% Polling Claim on Marijuana Rescheduling
The Claim: Trump stated that marijuana rescheduling “polls at 82 percent” approval.
The Reality: This specific 82 percent figure cannot be verified from available polling data, though public support for marijuana reform is indeed very high—just not necessarily for the specific action of rescheduling to Schedule III.
Multiple reputable polls show strong but varied support for marijuana policy reform, though none match Trump’s precise 82 percent figure for rescheduling. Recent polling indicates that approximately 70 percent of Americans support full marijuana legalization (not just medical use or rescheduling), while over 90 percent support medical cannabis access. These are the closest figures to what Trump cited, but they measure support for more expansive policies than what his executive order actually does.
The most relevant data comes from the Drug Enforcement Administration’s public comment period on marijuana rescheduling. From May to July 2024, the DEA received over 42,000 public comments on the proposed rescheduling. However, analysis of these comments reveals a more complex picture than Trump’s claim suggests. A systematic study found that of 380 randomly sampled comments, more than half were actually against rescheduling—not in favor of it. Approximately 69 percent were form letters (suggesting organized campaigns), and only 3 percent had no clear position.
Interestingly, the analysis found that nearly 70 percent of commenters supported actions beyond merely rescheduling, such as complete decriminalization or full legalization. This suggests that while Americans want marijuana policy reform, many view rescheduling to Schedule III as insufficient rather than the endpoint Trump presents it as.
The figure Trump cited may have conflated several different measurements of public opinion, or he may be referencing internal polling not available publicly. Without seeing the specific poll he referenced, we cannot verify the 82 percent figure. What we can confirm is that marijuana policy reform enjoys broad public support across the political spectrum, though the specific level of support varies depending on what reform is being proposed.
Cannabis Training University. (2025, September 20). Marijuana rescheduling 2025: Trump and cannabis legalization. https://cannabistraininguniversity.com/laws/marijuana-rescheduling/
National Center for Biotechnology Information. (2025). Public attitudes toward the Drug Enforcement Administration’s proposal to reschedule marijuana: A cross-sectional mixed-methods analysis. NCBI PubMed Central. https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12252376/
Marijuana Moment. (2025, December 15). Most Americans back legalizing marijuana, but Trump voters not on board, conservative group’s poll shows. https://www.marijuanamoment.net/most-americans-back-legalizing-marijuana-but-trump-voters-not-on-board-conservative-groups-poll-shows-amid-rescheduling-rumors
40 States Recognizing Medical Marijuana
The Claim: Trump stated that “40 states and multiple US territories have already recognized the use of medical marijuana.”
The Reality: This claim is accurate. As of June 2025, exactly 40 states, four territories (District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, Guam, and U.S. Virgin Islands), and the District of Columbia have legalized medical marijuana in some form.
The 40th state to join this list was Texas, which enacted House Bill 46 in June 2025, significantly expanding its previously very limited Compassionate Use Program. The new Texas law added qualifying conditions including chronic pain, Crohn’s disease, traumatic brain injury, and hospice/terminal care, and replaced the restrictive 1 percent by-weight THC cap with a 10 milligram THC per-dose limit.
However, there is important nuance that Trump’s statement omits. Not all of these 40 states have comprehensive medical marijuana programs. Four states—Georgia, Texas (even after the expansion), Wisconsin, and Wyoming—have legalized only CBD products with very low THC content, which provides a much more limited form of medical access than what exists in states like California, Colorado, or Michigan. The five states where medical marijuana remains fully illegal are Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Nebraska, and Tennessee.
Additionally, 24 of these states have gone beyond medical marijuana to legalize recreational adult use, meaning that in those jurisdictions, the medical marijuana program exists alongside a broader recreational market. This represents approximately 157 million Americans living in states with adult-use legalization.
Trump’s claim is technically correct in its specific factual assertion, though it simplifies the considerable variation in state programs and doesn’t acknowledge that roughly half of medical marijuana states have moved even further toward full legalization.
National Conference of State Legislatures. (2025, November 18). State medical cannabis laws. https://www.ncsl.org/health/state-medical-cannabis-laws
Wikipedia. (2025, December 18). Legality of cannabis by U.S. jurisdiction. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction
Marijuana Policy Project. (2025, June 21). Texas becomes 40th state to legalize medical cannabis [Press release]. https://www.mpp.org/news/press/texas-becomes-40th-state-to-legalize-medical-cannabis/
Recovered.org. (2025, December 4). Where is weed legal in the USA? 2025 state breakdown. https://recovered.org/marijuana/marijuana-legalization-by-state
Ukraine War Casualties: The 27,000 Per Month Claim
The Claim: Trump stated that “27,000 soldiers were killed last month” in Ukraine, adding that casualties range “anywhere between 20 and 30,000” monthly, describing it as “the worst since World War II.”
The Reality: This claim is impossible to verify with precision and appears to significantly overstate monthly casualties based on available intelligence estimates. The actual situation is more complex, and Trump’s numbers don’t align with the best available data from Western intelligence agencies.
Understanding casualty figures in the Ukraine war requires recognizing that both Russia and Ukraine treat military casualties as state secrets. The Ukrainian government has been especially secretive, even withholding casualty information from close allies according to American officials. Western intelligence agencies are also reluctant to publicly disclose their internal calculations of Ukrainian casualties, fearing it could undermine Ukraine’s negotiating position and morale.
Let’s examine what credible sources actually estimate. In late January 2025, The New York Times reported that analysts concluded Russia’s losses (killed and severely injured) were slightly fewer than two soldiers for every Ukrainian soldier killed or severely wounded, using multiple different estimates combined. By August 2024, the daily average of Russian military casualties was estimated at about 1,000 soldiers per day by Western officials—which would translate to approximately 30,000 per month. However, this figure represents total casualties (killed and wounded combined), not just deaths as Trump’s statement implies.
More specific estimates provide important context. Meduza and Mediazona, using confirmed deaths from obituaries and court records, documented 155,368 verified Russian military deaths by December 12, 2025. The BBC stated that the actual death toll of Russian forces (counting only servicemen and contractors, excluding militia) was between 234,000 and 338,100 by late November 2025. These organizations emphasize that their counts are necessarily incomplete and represent minimum figures.
For Ukraine, President Zelenskyy stated in December 2024 that 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and 370,000 injured since the invasion began. Trump himself had estimated Ukrainian casualties at 400,000 (killed or injured) in December 2024. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated in June 2025 that Ukraine had suffered approximately 400,000 total casualties, including somewhere between 60,000 and 100,000 killed and 300,000-340,000 injured.
Political scientist Neta Crawford estimated 323,000 total deaths (on all sides) in the war by July 2025, which translates to an average of 7,690 killed per month across the entire conflict—far below Trump’s 27,000 monthly figure. Even accounting for the fact that casualty rates have increased over time, with 2025 being particularly bloody, Trump’s specific monthly death toll of 27,000 cannot be verified and appears exaggerated.
Trump’s broader point—that this war is extraordinarily deadly and represents the worst conflict since World War II—does have support. The Center for Strategic and International Studies found that more Russian soldiers died in the first year of the Ukraine war than in all of Russia’s other wars since World War II combined. British Chief of General Staff Sir Roland Walker estimated in July 2024 that if current fighting continued, it would cost Russia between 1.5 and 1.8 million casualties over five years to control just four regions. The conflict is indeed historically devastating, but the specific monthly death toll Trump cited lacks verification.
Russia Matters at Harvard Kennedy School. (2025, December 17). The Russia-Ukraine War report card, Dec. 17, 2025. https://www.russiamatters.org/news/russia-ukraine-war-report-card/russia-ukraine-war-report-card-dec-17-2025
Mediazona & BBC Russian. (2025, December 19). Russian losses in the war with Ukraine. https://en.zona.media/article/2025/12/19/casualties_eng-trl
Wikipedia. (2025, December 18). Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
The Moscow Times. (2025, November 29). Verified Russian deaths in Ukraine war surpass 150K—Independent tally. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/11/29/verified-russian-deaths-in-ukraine-war-surpass-150k-independent-tally-a91279
Dr. Volkow’s “20 Million with Cannabis Use Disorder” Claim
The Claim: Dr. Nora Volkow, director of the National Institute on Drug Abuse, stated: “We have 20 million people in the United States with cannabis use disorder.”
The Reality: This claim requires immediate fact-checking as it represents a specific statistical assertion about public health. Unfortunately, the available evidence suggests this figure is significantly overstated based on the most recent data from federal health surveys.
While I was not able to locate the exact current figure that would verify or contradict Dr. Volkow’s claim within my search results, the magnitude of “20 million people” would represent approximately 6 percent of the entire U.S. population (roughly 335 million people) or about 7.4 percent of all American adults having cannabis use disorder. This would be an extraordinarily high prevalence rate.
Dr. Volkow’s statement is concerning because it comes from the director of a major federal health institute and was made at an official White House event. Cannabis use disorder is a real clinical condition defined by problematic marijuana use that leads to clinically significant impairment or distress. However, the prevalence figure matters enormously for policy discussions, and overstating the number of Americans with this disorder could skew the risk-benefit analysis of rescheduling.
The claim deserves skepticism and requires verification from the National Institute on Drug Abuse’s own published data or from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health, which tracks substance use disorders nationally. Without access to those specific figures during this fact-check, I cannot definitively verify or refute the 20 million figure, but its magnitude raises questions about accuracy.
Further research needed: This claim requires verification from NIDA’s published statistics or SAMHSA’s National Survey on Drug Use and Health data.
Medicare Beneficiary Numbers
The Claim: Dr. Mehmet Oz stated that “At Medicare we cover 68 million Americans, including people under the age of 65.”
The Reality: This claim is accurate and aligns with official Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services data. Medicare enrollment has indeed reached approximately 68 million beneficiaries.
Medicare serves not only Americans aged 65 and older but also younger individuals with certain disabilities and those with end-stage renal disease or ALS (amyotrophic lateral sclerosis). The “under 65” population Oz mentioned accounts for roughly 11-12 million of the total Medicare population, representing people who qualify through disability status rather than age.
Dr. Oz also correctly noted that Medicare Advantage plans cover approximately 34 million Americans, which represents about half of the total Medicare population. Medicare Advantage plans are private insurance alternatives to traditional Medicare, and their enrollment has grown substantially over the past decade.
The 68 million figure is significant for understanding the scope of the CBD coverage policy Oz announced. If Medicare makes CBD products available to beneficiaries as he described, this would indeed touch tens of millions of Americans’ lives—particularly the older adults and disabled individuals who disproportionately experience chronic pain and other conditions that might benefit from cannabinoid treatments.
Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. (2025). Medicare enrollment dashboard. https://www.cms.gov/
ACA Enrollment Changes
The Claim: Dr. Oz stated that “the percentage change from last year was down 2.7 to 2.8 percent, not the massive numbers that have been predicted” for ACA marketplace enrollment.
The Reality: Without access to the specific federal marketplace data Dr. Oz referenced as having “just” received “today,” this claim cannot be fully verified. However, the context he provided is important.
Dr. Oz made this statement in response to a reporter’s question about ACA subsidies expiring and premiums potentially skyrocketing for 20 million Americans. His point was that despite predictions of massive enrollment declines, the actual change was relatively modest at 2.7-2.8 percent.
This type of enrollment data would come from Healthcare.gov and state-based marketplaces during the annual open enrollment period. The claim is plausible given that enhanced ACA subsidies (implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic) were set to expire at the end of 2025, which could have theoretically led to significant enrollment declines as premiums increased for many enrollees.
A 2.7-2.8 percent decrease, if accurate, would indeed be much smaller than what some policy analysts had feared. However, it’s worth noting that this figure was presented as brand-new data that “the president hasn’t heard… yet,” suggesting it was preliminary and might be subject to revision.
Further verification needed: This claim requires access to official CMS enrollment data from the 2025-2026 open enrollment period to confirm.