This fact-check examines the veracity of major statistical and factual claims made by President Donald Trump and host Brian Kilmeade during their November 21, 2025 radio interview. For a summary of the interview, click here. Assistance from Claude AI.
1. Ukraine War Casualties: “25,000 People Last Month”
TRUMP’S CLAIM: “They lost 25,000 people last month between the two countries, 25,000 people. It’s out of control. It’s a bloodbath.”
VERDICT: Unverifiable and likely exaggerated
ANALYSIS:
Available data does not support Trump’s specific claim of 25,000 casualties in a single month for November 2025.
According to the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), civilian casualties for October 2025 totaled approximately 1,077 (148 killed and 929 injured) (UN News, 2025). For the first ten months of 2025, total civilian casualties were 12,062, representing a 27% increase from 2024 but far below Trump’s single-month military casualty claim (UN News, 2025).
Military casualty figures are classified as state secrets by both Russia and Ukraine, making precise verification impossible (Wikipedia, 2025). Political scientist Neta Crawford estimated an average of 7,690 deaths per month through July 2025 across all categories (Russia Matters, 2025), which would suggest approximately 15,000 deaths per month for both sides combined—substantially lower than Trump’s claim.
The BBC estimated 226,541-327,226 Russian military deaths through mid-November 2025, while Ukrainian officials claimed over 1.1 million Russian casualties (Russia Matters, 2025). However, these are cumulative figures since 2022, not monthly totals.
REFERENCES:
Russia Matters. (2025, November 12). The Russia-Ukraine war report card. https://www.russiamatters.org/news/russia-ukraine-war-report-card/russia-ukraine-war-report-card-nov-12-2025
UN News. (2025, November 12). Ukrainian civilian casualties rise 27 per cent compared to last year. https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/11/1166343
Wikipedia. (2025, November 22). Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian war. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_war
2. U.S. Drug Overdose Deaths: “200,000 People Last Year”
TRUMP’S CLAIM: “I think we lost last year, 200,000 people. That’s death.”
VERDICT: FALSE – Significantly exaggerated
ANALYSIS:
Trump’s claim of 200,000 drug overdose deaths is approximately double the actual figure.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), provisional data indicates there were approximately 80,391 drug overdose deaths in the United States during 2024, representing a 26.9% decrease from 110,037 deaths in 2023 (CDC NCHS, 2025). This marks the lowest level since 2019 and represents the steepest annual decline ever recorded (Reuters, 2025).
The 2023 figure was approximately 105,007-110,037 deaths (NIDA, 2025), meaning Trump’s claim exceeds the actual 2024 figure by approximately 120,000 deaths—nearly 150% higher than reality.
The CDC reported that overdose deaths involving opioids decreased from an estimated 83,140 in 2023 to 54,743 in 2024, with synthetic opioid deaths (including fentanyl) dropping nearly 37% to 48,422 in 2024 (CDC, 2024).
REFERENCES:
CDC National Center for Health Statistics. (2025, May 14). U.S. overdose deaths decrease almost 27% in 2024 [Press release]. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/releases/20250514.html
National Institute on Drug Abuse. (2025, August 21). Drug overdose deaths: Facts and figures. https://nida.nih.gov/research-topics/trends-statistics/overdose-death-rates
U.S. News & World Report. (2025, May 14). US drug overdose deaths dropped to 5-year low in 2024, CDC data shows. https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2025-05-14/us-drug-overdose-deaths-dropped-to-5-year-low-in-2024-cdc-data-shows
3. Venezuela Emptying Prisons: “They Emptied Their Prisons Into Our Country”
TRUMP’S CLAIM: “Venezuela did one thing that nobody else did to that extent. They emptied their prisons into our country, Tren de Aragua, the gang, the—their prisons were emptied into the US, empty.”
VERDICT: FALSE – No evidence of systematic government program
ANALYSIS:
Multiple independent fact-checks, investigative journalism, and intelligence assessments have found no credible evidence that Venezuela systematically emptied its prisons and sent inmates to the United States.
A declassified memorandum by the National Intelligence Council confirmed “there was no evidence that the Venezuelan government led Tren de Aragua or that sending criminals to the United States was part of a state policy” (Caracas Chronicles, 2025).
Factually.co concluded: “Current evidence shows no verified, systematic program by Venezuela to empty prisons or psychiatric hospitals of violent offenders and send them to the United States” (Factually.co, 2025). Multiple fact-checking organizations including PolitiFact and FactCheck.org reached similar conclusions (FactCheck.org, 2025).
While Tren de Aragua is a real Venezuelan criminal organization with some presence in the U.S., experts note that its expansion followed normal migration patterns during Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis, when approximately 7.7 million Venezuelans left the country (NBC News, 2025). The gang originated in Venezuela’s Tocorón prison around 2014 and expanded transnationally beginning around 2018 (InSight Crime, 2025).
Constitutional law professor Michael Gerhardt told PolitiFact: “If our government has evidence of a coordinated invasion into this country that was engineered by a foreign nation, it must have proof. Otherwise, it is fiction” (Al Jazeera, 2025).
REFERENCES:
Al Jazeera. (2025, March 20). Fact check: Is Tren de Aragua invading the US, as Trump says? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/20/fact-check-is-tren-de-aragua-invading-the-us-as-trump-says
Caracas Chronicles. (2025, August 21). How the ‘Maduro emptied his prisons to invade the U.S.’ rumor reached the White House. https://www.caracaschronicles.com/2025/08/09/how-the-maduro-emptied-his-prisons-to-invade-the-u-s-rumor-reached-the-white-house/
FactCheck.org. (2025, April 21). Q&A on the Alien Enemies Act and Tren de Aragua in the U.S. https://www.factcheck.org/2025/03/qa-on-the-alien-enemies-act-and-tren-de-aragua-in-the-u-s/
Factually.co. (2025, November 15). Fact check: Did Venezuela empty their prisons and mental hospitals… https://factually.co/fact-checks/politics/venezuela-empty-prisons-mental-hospitals-violent-criminals-39ccbc
InSight Crime. (2025, August 18). What is Tren de Aragua? https://insightcrime.org/investigations/what-is-tren-de-aragua/
NBC News. (2025, March 19). The truth about Tren de Aragua, the gang at the center of Trump’s immigration crackdown. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/tren-de-aragua-trump-focused-gang-venezuelans-rcna191750
4. U.S. Investment: “$20 Trillion Being Invested in the United States”
TRUMP’S CLAIM: “We have $20 trillion being invested in the United States… I have $20 trillion in one year. It’ll be about $20 trillion in one year, a record. No other country ever in history has done that.”
VERDICT: FALSE – Grossly exaggerated and unsubstantiated
ANALYSIS:
Trump’s $20 trillion investment claim is dramatically inflated and lacks supporting documentation. The figure would represent approximately two-thirds of the entire U.S. GDP (approximately $27-30 trillion annually), making it economically implausible for a single year.
According to FactCheck.org’s analysis of the White House’s own “running list,” actual announced corporate investments totaled approximately $2 trillion, with an additional $4 trillion in vague country “pledges,” bringing the total to roughly $6 trillion—less than one-third of Trump’s claim (FactCheck.org, 2025). The White House website itself listed “$8.8 trillion” in “major investment announcements,” though CNN found even this figure to be significantly exaggerated (MSNBC, 2025).
Critical issues with Trump’s figures include:
- Timeframe confusion: Many pledged investments span 4-10 years, not one year (FactCheck.org, 2025)
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Inflated country pledges: The UAE’s $1.4 trillion pledge exceeds double the UAE’s entire GDP; Japan’s $1 trillion represents cumulative existing investment, not new capital (The New Republic, 2025)
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Impossible scale: Total U.S. non-residential investment in 2024 was $3.5 trillion for the entire year (FactCheck.org, 2025)
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Constantly changing figures: Trump’s claim escalated from $3 trillion in January to $21 trillion by October without documentation (MSNBC, 2025)
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, when asked by Fox News to verify the figures, could only respond: “Well, the president uses the number ’20 trillion’ in terms of total investments, and I think that those commitments are real,” without providing specific documentation (The New Republic, 2025).
Nick Nigro of Atlas Public Policy noted: “Companies often will make announcements to essentially curry favor with an incoming administration to show how committed they are to the United States” (FactCheck.org, 2025).
REFERENCES:
FactCheck.org. (2025, May 20). Trump’s growing exaggeration of U.S. investments. https://www.factcheck.org/2025/05/trumps-growing-exaggeration-of-u-s-investments/
MSNBC. (2025, November 14). On foreign investments, Trump keeps inflating his ‘unbelievable’ numbers. https://www.ms.now/rachel-maddow-show/maddowblog/foreign-investments-trump-keeps-inflating-unbelievable-numbers-rcna240338
PolitiFact. (2025, May 8). Has Donald Trump secured $10 trillion in investments for U.S.? Not according to White House tallies. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2025/may/08/donald-trump/foreign-corporate-investment-10-trillion/
The New Republic. (2025, November 19). Trump makes ridiculous claim about Saudi investment in the U.S. https://newrepublic.com/post/203393/donald-trump-saudi-investing-us-gdp
5. Nigeria Christian Deaths: “Hundreds of Thousands of People”
TRUMP’S CLAIM: “They’re killing people, hundreds of thousands of people and the New York York Times and all that garbage that people read, that are forced to read, they write all garbage, the most dishonest group of people.”
VERDICT: EXAGGERATED – Thousands killed, not “hundreds of thousands” recently
ANALYSIS:
While violence against Christians in Nigeria is a serious and well-documented human rights crisis, Trump’s claim of “hundreds of thousands” killed significantly overstates recent figures.
According to multiple monitoring organizations:
2025 figures: Intersociety, a Nigerian human rights NGO, reported approximately 7,087 Christians killed in the first 220 days of 2025, averaging 32 deaths per day (Catholic World Report, 2025; Newsweek, 2025).
2024 figures: Open Doors reported 3,100 Christians killed in Nigeria in 2024 (Catholic News Agency, 2025). Intersociety estimated approximately 5,000 Christian deaths in 2024 (Catholic World Report, 2025).
Cumulative long-term figures: Intersociety claims approximately 125,000 Christians killed since 2009 (Catholic Register, 2025). However, the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a widely-cited independent monitoring organization, reported that just under 53,000 Muslims and Christians combined had been killed in targeted political violence since 2009 (Wikipedia, 2025).
Critical context: ACLED senior analyst Ladd Serwat specifically noted that claims of 100,000 Christians killed since 2009 “are not supported by available data,” and identified multiple causes of violence including “conflicts over political power, land disputes, ethnicity, cult affiliation, and banditry”—not solely religious targeting (Wikipedia, 2025).
The Conversation’s analysis found: “The data shows it is difficult, if not impossible, to delineate the killings based on religious affiliations. All the religions in the country have been affected” (The Conversation, 2025).
While religious violence is undeniably severe—Nigeria had more Christians killed for their faith in 2024 than any other country—Trump’s characterization of “hundreds of thousands” killed appears to conflate 16 years of cumulative deaths (using disputed figures) with recent or annual totals.
REFERENCES:
Catholic News Agency. (2025, January 15). Nigeria tops report for number of Christians killed, kidnapped in 2024. https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/261571/nigeria-tops-report-for-number-of-christians-killed-kidnapped-in-2024
Catholic Register. (2025, September 24). Christian genocide feared in Nigeria. https://www.catholicregister.org/item/2822-christian-genocide-feared-in-nigeria
Catholic World Report. (2025, August 12). Report states an average of 30 Christians murdered each day in Nigeria in 2025. https://www.catholicworldreport.com/2025/08/12/report-states-an-average-of-30-christians-murdered-each-day-in-nigeria-in-2025/
Newsweek. (2025, August 20). 7,000 Christians have been killed in Nigeria this year, group says. https://www.newsweek.com/christians-killed-nigeria-religion-2116416
The Conversation. (2025, November 9). Is there a Christian genocide in Nigeria? Evidence shows all faiths are under attack by terrorists. https://theconversation.com/is-there-a-christian-genocide-in-nigeria-evidence-shows-all-faiths-are-under-attack-by-terrorists-268929
Wikipedia. (2025, November 22). Religious violence in Nigeria. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Religious_violence_in_Nigeria
Summary Table of Claims
| Claim | Trump’s Figure | Actual Figure | Verdict | Error Magnitude |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine monthly deaths | 25,000 | ~7,700-15,000 (est.) | Likely exaggerated | ~67-225% inflation |
| U.S. drug deaths 2024 | 200,000 | ~80,400 | False | ~149% inflation |
| Venezuela prison emptying | “Emptied” | No evidence | False | Unsubstantiated |
| U.S. investments (1 year) | $20 trillion | ~$2-6 trillion | False | ~233-900% inflation |
| Nigeria Christian deaths | “Hundreds of thousands” | ~3,000-7,000 annual | Exaggerated | ~1,400-3,000% inflation |
Additional Claims Requiring Context
Iran’s Nuclear Capability “Taken Away”
TRUMP’S CLAIM: “You have Iran, which has been beaten very badly and their nuclear capability taken away.”
ANALYSIS: This claim requires significant qualification. While Iranian nuclear facilities and proxy forces have been degraded through Israeli strikes and other actions during 2024-2025, Iran retains substantial nuclear infrastructure, enrichment capabilities, and technical knowledge. No authoritative source confirms Iran’s nuclear capability has been completely “taken away.”
Middle East “Peace”
TRUMP’S CLAIM: “We have now peace in the Middle East… There’s never been a time like this in the Middle East. You have peace in the Middle East.”
ANALYSIS: This characterization is premature. While normalization agreements between Israel and several Arab states represent significant diplomatic progress, ongoing conflicts include the Gaza situation, Hezbollah tensions in Lebanon, and continued regional instability. The claim of comprehensive Middle East peace is not supported by current conditions on the ground.
Methodology Note
This fact-check focused on verifiable statistical claims made during the interview. Sources were prioritized in the following order: (1) government agencies and official statistics, (2) established fact-checking organizations, (3) reputable news organizations, (4) academic and research institutions, and (5) NGOs with transparent methodology. Claims were evaluated based on available evidence as of November 22, 2025.