The Kansas budget is volatile, with rising spending and a large deficit.
Figures from Kansas financial reports show that state spending has risen. Based on that and shifts in revenue flows, deficits are large.
The following tables and charts show actual data through fiscal year 2019. Figures for 2020 are revised estimates, and for 2021, the figures are from the approved budget. The primary source of data is Kansas Comparison Report: The FY 2021 Governor’s Budget Report with Legislative Authorizations. 1
The revised estimate of receipts is $826.9 million less than the estimate from November 2019. The revision takes into account estimates of the effect of the pandemic, while the November estimate was made before the coronavirus was known, at least in the United States.
A large reason for the reduction in estimates of receipts is a change in tax due date: “The individual income tax estimate was decreased by $620.0 million in FY 2020 based on the deferment of $560.0 million in tax year 2019 balance dues and estimated payments that now will not be paid until July 15, 2020.” That effect was noticed in July, when individual income tax receipts were $395.3 million higher than in July 2019. 2
Because of the deferral of so much tax revenue from fiscal years 2020 to 2021, receipts in 2021 are forecast to rise by 5.9 percent.
In the following table, spending increases from the general fund average 4.0 percent per year for 2011 through 2021. For the same period, revenue increases average 3.3 percent.
The deficit of revenue compared to spending in 2020 is slightly over one billion dollars. The state issued a certificate of indebtedness of $900.0 million to compensate. This is a loan that must be repaid by the end of fiscal 2021, which is June 30, 2021.
Click on charts and tables for larger versions.
- Kansas Division of the Budget, Kansas Comparison Reports. Available at https://budget.kansas.gov/comparison-reports/. ↩
- Weeks, Bob. Kansas tax revenue, July 2020. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/kansas-government/kansas-tax-revenue-2020-07/. ↩