President Trump welcomed NYC’s democratic socialist Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani to the Oval Office in a meeting that stunned observer. Both leaders found surprising common ground on housing, grocery prices, and crime. Despite past accusations of “fascism” and “communism,” the unlikely pair pledged to work together on affordability for 8.5 million New Yorkers.
Assistance from Claude AI. For a summary of the meeting, click here.
Trump’s Claims
1. Walmart Thanksgiving Prices Down 25%
Claim: “Walmart said that Thanksgiving this year is exactly 25% less than last year.”
Verdict: Misleading
Analysis: While Walmart’s 2025 Thanksgiving meal basket costs approximately 25% less than the 2024 basket ($40 vs. $55), this price reduction is not due to lower food prices. The 2025 basket contains significantly fewer items (15 products/22 individual items) compared to 2024 (21 products/29 individual items). Missing items include sweet potatoes, pecan pie, chicken broth, onions, celery, mini marshmallows, whipped topping, and muffin mix. The 2025 basket also includes more store-brand items and smaller quantities of some products (one can of mushroom soup instead of two).
When comparing identical items from the 2024 basket at current 2025 prices, the actual price decline is only about 6.5%, not 25%. Federal grocery price data shows overall grocery prices increased approximately 1.9% since Trump took office in January 2025, with some items falling while others rose significantly (FactCheck.org, 2025; PolitiFact, 2025).
Sources:
- FactCheck.org. (2025, November 14). Trump serves a misleading Thanksgiving meal statistic. Retrieved from https://www.factcheck.org/2025/11/trump-serves-a-misleading-thanksgiving-meal-statistic/
- PolitiFact. (2025, November 14). President Donald Trump misleads about Walmart Thanksgiving dinner price comparison. Retrieved from https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2025/nov/14/donald-trump/walmart-thanksgiving-grocery-prices-inflation/
- Dale, D. (2025, November 6). Fact check: Cheaper Walmart Thanksgiving meal touted by Trump has fewer items than last year’s. CNN Politics. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/politics/walmart-thanksgiving-trump-fact-check
2. Saudi Arabia Investment of $1 Trillion / $20-21 Trillion Total
Claim: “The king of Saudi Arabia just left yesterday… he’s made a contribution toward the United States of more than $1 trillion. We have now over $20 trillion coming in.”
Verdict: Unverifiable and Likely Exaggerated
Analysis: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman did announce plans to increase investment commitments from $600 billion to approximately $1 trillion during his November 18, 2025 White House visit. However, these are investment pledges, not direct payments or completed transactions. The White House fact sheet describes these as future investments in infrastructure, technology, and industry, with no specific timeline provided (White House, 2025).
Economists have expressed significant skepticism about the feasibility of these pledges. Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, noted that $1 trillion equals nearly an entire year’s GDP for Saudi Arabia, making such an investment commitment questionable. During Trump’s first term, he touted $450 billion in Saudi investments, but actual exports of American goods and services to Saudi Arabia from 2017-2020 totaled only about $92 billion—roughly one-fifth of the claimed amount (CBS News, 2025; CNBC, 2025).
Trump’s claim of “$20 trillion coming in” from all sources appears to have no factual basis and could not be verified through any government announcements or economic data.
Sources:
- White House. (2025, November 19). Fact sheet: President Donald J. Trump solidifies economic and defense partnership with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/11/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-solidifies-economic-and-defense-partnership-with-the-kingdom-of-saudi-arabia/
- Amaro, S. (2025, November 19). From $1 trillion spending to F-35s, U.S.-Saudi pledges aren’t done deals yet. CNBC. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/19/from-1-trillion-spending-to-f-35s-us-saudi-pledges-arent-done-deals-yet.html
- Legum, C. (2025, November 18). MBS tells Trump Saudis will increase investments in U.S. to near $1 trillion. CBS News. Retrieved from https://www.cbsnews.com/news/mbs-trump-saudis-1-trillion-investments/
3. Ukraine Casualties: 25,000 Soldiers Lost “Last Month”
Claim: “Last month they lost 25,000 soldiers… they’re averaging 6 or 7,000 a week between the two of them, dead soldiers.”
Verdict: Cannot Be Verified; Likely Exaggerated
Analysis: Trump’s specific claim that Ukraine lost 25,000 soldiers in a single month cannot be verified through available casualty data. Independent analyses suggest significantly lower figures:
- Meduza, citing inheritance registry data, estimated between 200,000-220,000 total Russian deaths by mid-2025, with Ukrainian casualties roughly comparable (Meduza, 2025)
- A November 2025 report stated Ukraine lost approximately 8,000 soldiers since January 1, 2025—not 25,000 in a single month (Mezha, 2025)
- President Zelenskyy’s most recent official statement (February 2025) put Ukrainian casualties at over 46,000 killed and 380,000 wounded since the war began in February 2022 (Wikipedia, 2025)
- The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) estimated as of August 2025 that Russia had suffered approximately 250,000 deaths with over 950,000 total casualties (CSIS, 2025)
Trump’s claim of “6 or 7,000 a week between the two of them” would equal 24,000-28,000 per month combined, which exceeds most credible estimates. Exact casualty figures remain difficult to verify as both sides limit official disclosures for strategic reasons.
Sources:
- Meduza. (2025, November 4). How many soldiers have Russia and Ukraine lost? And how do their armies compare? Retrieved from https://meduza.io/en/feature/2025/11/04/how-many-soldiers-have-russia-and-ukraine-lost-and-how-do-their-armies-compare
- Mezha. (2025, November 24). Russian and Ukrainian military losses update November 2025. Retrieved from https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/russian-and-ukrainian-military-losses-update-november-2025-2/
- Casualties of the Russo-Ukrainian War. (2025, November 24). In Wikipedia. Retrieved from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
- Jones, S. G. (2025, August 11). Russia’s battlefield woes in Ukraine. Center for Strategic and International Studies. Retrieved from https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-battlefield-woes-ukraine
4. “Peace in the Middle East After 3,000 Years”
Claim: “We actually have now for the first time peace in the Middle East after 3000 years.”
Verdict: False
Analysis: This claim is demonstrably false. As of November 2025, multiple active conflicts continue in the Middle East, including the ongoing war in Gaza, continued tensions with Hezbollah in Lebanon, and unresolved conflicts in Syria and Yemen. Trump himself acknowledged in the same meeting that “Hezbollah has been a problem in Lebanon” and discussed ongoing efforts toward “disarmament of Hamas,” indicating active hostilities rather than peace.
Mamdani’s Claims
1. New York City Population: 8.5 Million
Claim: “The 8.5 million people who call our city, their home.”
Verdict: Accurate
Analysis: According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Vintage 2024 Population Estimates released in March 2025, New York City’s population stood at 8,478,000 as of July 2024. This represents growth of 87,000 people between July 2023 and July 2024, with all five boroughs gaining population. Mamdani’s figure of “8.5 million” is an appropriate rounding of this official estimate.
Sources:
- New York City Mayor’s Office. (2025, March 13). Mayor Adams celebrates two consecutive years of population growth in New York City. Retrieved from https://www.nyc.gov/mayors-office/news/2025/03/mayor-adams-celebrates-two-consecutive-years-population-growth-new-york-city
- New York City Department of City Planning. (2025, March). New York City’s population estimates and trends 2025 release. Retrieved from https://www.nyc.gov/assets/planning/downloads/pdf/our-work/reports/new-york-city-population-estimates-and-trends_may-2025.pdf
2. Most Expensive City in the United States
Claim: New York is “the most expensive city in the United States of America.”
Verdict: Accurate
Analysis: Multiple studies and cost-of-living analyses consistently rank New York City as the most expensive city in the United States. The 2025 Robin Hood poverty report notes that NYC is a “high-cost city” where the poverty threshold for a renting family of four reached $47,190 in 2023—significantly higher than most other U.S. cities. Real estate analyses show NYC consistently ranks first or second (alternating with San Francisco) for highest cost of living in the nation.
Sources:
- Robin Hood & Columbia University. (2025, February 26). The state of poverty and disadvantage in New York City, Volume 7. Retrieved from https://robinhood.org/reports/poverty-tracker-annual-report-vol-7/
3. One in Four Living in Poverty
Claim: “One in four living in poverty.”
Verdict: Accurate
Analysis: The 2025 Robin Hood/Columbia University Poverty Tracker report, based on 2023 data, found that exactly 25% of New York City residents—or one in four New Yorkers—were living in poverty. This represents approximately 2.02 million people, including 1.6 million adults and 420,000 children. The poverty rate increased from 23% in 2022 to 25% in 2023, driven by rising costs for food, housing, utilities, clothing, and internet access that outpaced income growth. NYC’s poverty rate is nearly double the national average of 13%.
Sources:
- Robin Hood. (2025, February 26). Poverty rate in NYC climbs to 25%. Retrieved from https://robinhood.org/news/robin-hood-annual-poverty-tracker-report-shows-25-overall-poverty-rate-in-new-york-city-climbing-beyond-record-highs-observed-in-2022/
- Buery, R. R., Jr., & Wimer, C. (2025). The state of poverty and disadvantage in New York City, Volume 7. Robin Hood & Columbia University Center on Poverty and Social Policy. Retrieved from https://robinhood.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/PT_Annual24_final_digital.pdf
4. One in Five Cannot Afford $2.90 MetroCard
Claim: “1-in-5 can’t even afford $2.90 for a MetroCard.”
Verdict: Plausible but Not Directly Verifiable
Analysis: While this specific statistic about MetroCard affordability could not be independently verified, it is consistent with broader poverty data. With 25% of New Yorkers living in poverty and 26% facing material hardship (including inability to pay bills), the claim that 20% cannot afford a $2.90 subway fare is mathematically plausible. The 2025 poverty report found that 43% of families eligible for the Child Poverty Reduction Advisory Council benefits could not cover a $400 emergency expense, indicating widespread financial precarity that would include difficulty affording basic transit costs.
Sources:
- Robin Hood & Columbia University. (2025, February 26). The state of poverty and disadvantage in New York City, Volume 7. Retrieved from https://robinhood.org/reports/poverty-tracker-annual-report-vol-7/
5. Nine Consecutive Years of More Than 100,000 Homeless School Children
Claim: “We’re in the ninth consecutive year of more than 100,000 school children being homeless in our city.”
Verdict: Accurate (Actually Ten Consecutive Years)
Analysis: Mamdani slightly understated the problem. According to data from Advocates for Children of New York, based on New York State Education Department records, the 2024-2025 school year marked the tenth consecutive year—not ninth—in which more than 100,000 NYC public school students experienced homelessness. The most recent count shows 154,000 students (nearly one in seven) experienced homelessness during the 2024-2025 school year, setting a new record high. This includes approximately 65,000 students in city shelters and 82,000 “doubled up” with other families.
Sources:
- Advocates for Children of New York. (2025, October 20). Student homelessness in New York City, 2024–25. Retrieved from https://advocatesforchildren.org/policy-resource/student-homelessness-data-2025/
- Elsen-Rooney, M. (2025, October 20). 154,000 NYC students were homeless last school year, setting another record high. Chalkbeat New York. Retrieved from https://www.chalkbeat.org/newyork/2025/10/20/homeless-students-reach-record-high-amid-housing-crisis-migrant-influx/
- THE CITY. (2025, October 20). 154,000 NYC students were homeless last school year, another record high. Retrieved from https://www.thecity.nyc/2025/10/20/154000-nyc-students-homeless-record-high/
Summary
Trump’s claims ranged from misleading to unverifiable, with the Walmart Thanksgiving statistic being particularly deceptive as it omitted critical context about reduced basket contents. The Saudi investment figures, while based on actual pledges, represent future commitments of uncertain feasibility rather than completed transactions. The Ukraine casualty figures could not be verified and likely exceed credible estimates. The Middle East peace claim is demonstrably false.
Mamdani’s claims were substantially accurate, supported by official government statistics and nonprofit research data. His figures on NYC population, poverty rates, and homeless children align with authoritative sources, though he slightly understated the homeless children timeframe (ten years rather than nine).