Tag: Economics

Employment fell in Kansas in March 2020 compared to the prior month, but it still higher than last March. It is unclear how the pandemic has affected this data.

Data released this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mixed picture for employment in Kansas for March 2020.

Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is difficult to assess the meaning of the March data. BLS gathers this data through two survey programs. For employment data derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, also known as the payroll survey or the establishment survey and which counts jobs, the estimate is for the pay period that includes the twelfth day of the month. For data from the Current Population Survey, which counts people, the estimate is for the “reference week,” which is usually the week that includes the twelfth day of the month. For Kansas, here are the dates of some major events that would be expected to affect employment:

• March 13: President Trump declares a national emergency that began on March 1.
• March 16: Social distancing guidelines announced for the nation.
• March 24: Kansas City metro area stay-at-home order takes effect.
• March 25: Sedgwick County stay-at-home order takes effect.
• March 30: Kansas stay-at-home order takes effect.

As noted, the BLS data is collected nearer the start of the month than the end. For Kansas, these events that should affect employment occurred mostly towards the end of the month. There were also these two major events that affected employment in recent months: Spirit Aerosytems announced layoffs (2,796) that started January 22 ¹, according to news reports, and Textron (875) the month before ².

BLS also offered this guidance, and more, for the March data:

We cannot precisely quantify the effects of the pandemic on the job market in March. However, it is clear that the decrease in employment and hours and the increase in unemployment can be ascribed to the effects of the illness and efforts to contain the virus. It is important to keep in mind that the March survey reference periods for both surveys predated many coronavirus-related business and school closures in the second half of the month. ³

The number of initial unemployment claims is a different set of data that provides insight. In Kansas, it was the week ending March 21 that saw the first big jump in initial claims, with 23,925 reported compared to 1,820 the prior week and 1,292 the same time last year. ⁴

(Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

Using seasonally adjusted data, from February 2020 to March 2020, nonfarm employment in Kansas fell by 5,900 (0.4 percent). Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for March 2020 rose by 9,700 (0.7 percent) over the same month last year. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is lower at 9,200 (0.7 percent).

Over the year (March 2019 to March 2020), the Kansas labor force is up by 16,537 (1.1 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with an increase of 1,878 (0.2 percent) over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows an increase of 19,832 (1.3 percent) in the labor force over the year.

The number of unemployed persons fell from February 2020 to March 2020 by 273 (0.6 percent). The unemployment rate was 3.1 percent in March, down 0.1 percentage points from one year ago, and unchanged from last month.

Comparing Kansas to the nation: Using seasonal data, Kansas nonfarm jobs increased by 0.68 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 1.00 percent. Non-seasonal data shows Kansas nonfarm jobs rising by 0.65 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 0.97 percent.

The release for March 2020 holds some seasonally adjusted data for manufacturing employment in Kansas as follows (in thousands of jobs):

Dec 2019: 167.0
Jan 2020: 168.8
Feb 2020: 168.4
March 2020: 168.7

Click charts and tables for larger versions.

In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, Kansas has outperformed the nation in some months. The March figures are notable for their magnitude.

In the following chart of showing job changes from the same month one year ago, Kansas is always below the national rate. The recent trend shows Kansas doing better until March.

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Notes

Employment and the labor force rose in Kansas in February 2020 compared to the prior month, although employment growth was smaller.

Data released this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows an improving picture for employment in Kansas for February 2020. (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

Using seasonally adjusted data, from January 2020 to February 2020, nonfarm employment in Kansas rose by 1,600 (0.1 percent). Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for February 2020 rose by 14,700 (1.0 percent) over last February. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is lower at 11,900 (0.8 percent).

Over the year (February 2019 to February 2020), the Kansas labor force is up by 14,697 (1.0 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with an increase of 2,573 (0.2 percent) over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows an increase of 20,491 (1.4 percent) in the labor force over the year.

The number of unemployed persons fell from January 2020 to February 2020 by 57 (0.1 percent). The unemployment rate was 3.1 percent in February, down 0.2 percentage points from one year ago, and unchanged from January.

Comparing Kansas to the nation: Using seasonal data, Kansas nonfarm jobs increased by 1.04 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 1.60 percent. Non-seasonal data shows Kansas nonfarm jobs rising by 0.84 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 1.56 percent.

A note regarding recent layoffs

This data is for February 2020. Spirit Aerosytems announced layoffs that started January 22, according to news reports. The effect of these layoffs should realized in these statistics. For employment data derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program, also known as the payroll survey or the establishment survey, the estimate is for the pay period that includes the twelfth day of the month. For data from the Current Population Survey, which counts people, the estimate is for the “reference week,” which is usually the week that includes the twelfth day of the month.

The release for February 2020 holds some seasonally adjusted data for manufacturing employment in Kansas as follows (in thousands of jobs):

Feb 2019: 166.6
Dec 2019: 167.0
Jan 2020: 168.8
Feb 2020: 168.4

Click charts and tables for larger versions.

In the following chart of showing job changes from the same month one year ago, Kansas is always below the national rate. The recent trend shows Kansas doing better, with the change growing.

In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, Kansas has outperformed the nation in some months and has exceeded the national rate in two of the past three months.

For 2019, the rate of personal income growth in Kansas was near the middle of the states.

This week the Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the United States Department of Commerce, released state annual personal income for 2019 and state quarterly personal income for the fourth quarter of 2019. The annual figures are preliminary.

For Kansas, personal income in 2019 was $155,724, up from $149,859 in 2018. (These are current dollars, not adjusted for inflation.) This increase of 3.9 percent put Kansas at the rank of 31 among the states. With a reported population of 2,913,000 (Census Bureau midyear population estimates available as of December 2019), per capita personal income was $53,453, which ranks at number 24 among the states.

For the nation, personal income rose by 4.4 percent from 2018 to 2019. For Plains states the increase was 4.1 percent. (For this data, Plains States are Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.)

Personal income in the fourth quarter of 2019 was $158,032 million, an increase of 2.9 percent from the third quarter. That ranked twenty-ninth among the states. For the nation, the increase was 3.0 percent. (These values, while considering one quarter, are expressed as an annual rate, and are adjusted for seasonality.) For Plains states, the increase was 2.8 percent. The fourth quarter of the calendar year consists of October, November, and December.

A nearby table shows the contributions of earnings to percent change in personal income by industry. In Kansas, the industries that contributed the most were Health care and social assistance, State and local government, Construction, Management of companies and enterprises, and Transportation and warehousing. Utilities and Nondurable goods manufacturing experienced small reductions.

According to BEA, “Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.”

Also from BEA: “Earnings by place of work is the sum of wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. BEA’s industry estimates are presented on an earnings by place of work basis.”