Voice For Liberty

Tag: Featured

  • Wichita population, according to Mayor Longwell

    Wichita population, according to Mayor Longwell

    It is unfortunate that Wichita city and metro populations are falling. It is unimaginable that our city’s top leader is not aware of the latest population trends.

    In May, Wichita Mayor Jeff Longwell told viewers of the KPTS Television program Call the Mayor that he was not aware of the latest United States Census Bureau estimates of population for Wichita. (A transcript of this portion of the program is below.)

    Mayor Longwell said he wasn’t aware of the estimate, telling the audience, “census estimates are different than the census.” Absolutely correct. The census, which is an attempt to count the population, happens only once every ten years, while census estimates for population are produced annually. With only decennial data, we wouldn’t know much about recent developments.

    Estimates are important. We use them in numerous circumstances when producing a count would be expensive. Mayor Longwell said he hasn’t seen estimates for population, but he knows the unemployment rate for Wichita. That is also an estimate produced by a different branch of the federal government. The city uses many estimates. The “City Overview” section of the budget document starts with: “Wichita, the largest city in Kansas with a population 389,965 …” The footnote gives the source of the data as “2015 Census population estimates.”

    On Call the Mayor, Longwell said, “our population in Wichita has grown from 2000 by nearly 40,000 people.” Interestingly, if the mayor doesn’t want to use estimates, he should have said the City of Wichita population grew by about 30,000, as that is the difference between the 2010 and 2000 census counts. Based on the estimate of city population for 2018, growth has been almost 37,000.

    Wichita and top 100 city population, annual change, through 2018. Click for larger.
    It’s too bad that the mayor doesn’t know the latest population estimates, because they don’t hold good news. The City of Wichita proper lost 1,052 in population from 2017 to 2018, a decline of 0.27 percent. 1 For the same period, the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area population fell by 740 persons, or 0.11 percent. Net domestic migration for the Wichita metro area showed a loss of 3,023 persons, or 0.47 percent of the population. This change, on a proportional basis, was 301st among the 383 largest metro areas. 2

    Wichita’s unemployment rate is low, and has been declining

    One of the reasons the Wichita unemployment rate is low is because of a declining labor force. As can be seen in the nearby chart, the unemployment rate (green line) has fallen — and by a lot — since the end of the last recession in 2009. (Click here for an interactive version of the chart.) But the unemployment rate depends on two things, one being the labor force as the denominator of a fraction, or ratio. If the denominator (labor force) falls at a greater rate than the numerator, the unemployment rate will fall. That is what has happened in Wichita.

    Wichita labor force and employment. Click for larger.

    For example, on January 1, 2010, the labor force in Wichita was 320,287 and the number of unemployed persons was 28,523, resulting in an unemployment rate of 8.9 percent. The number of employed persons was 291,764.

    Then, on April 1, 2019, the labor force in Wichita was 311,114 (falling by 9,173 or 2.9 percent) and the number of unemployed persons was 11,576 (falling by 16,947 or 59.4 percent), resulting in an unemployment rate of 3.7 percent. The number of employed persons was 299,538 (rising by 7,774 or 2.7 percent).

    If, for example, the current labor force was the same size as on January 1, 2010, and we have the same number of employed people as we do today, there would be 20,749 unemployed people, and the unemployment rate would be 6.5 percent instead of 3.7 percent. (We don’t know what would have happened had the labor force not fallen, but this is an example of how the arithmetic works.)

    This is unfortunate

    It is unfortunate that the city and metro populations are falling. It is unimaginable that our city’s top leader is not aware of the latest population trends. These numbers are easy to find. Until recently, they would be reported in local news media.

    But the city has an economic development staff that ought to be aware of these numbers. There is the Greater Wichita Partnership, responsible for shepherding economic development. There is a city manager, assistant city manager, six city council members, and a fleet of bureaucrats. Didn’t any of these people know the population has declined? If not, why not?

    And if any knew the population was declining and didn’t tell the mayor, well, that’s another problem.

    Transcript from Call the Mayor, May 30, 2019

    Host: We have a Facebook question from Bob. Could you please comment on the recent US Census Bureau population estimates for the city of Wichita and Wichita metro stat area for the year ending July 1, 2018. It’s very specific but the latest on the census for Wichita.

    Longwell: So the census estimates are different than the census and so I’m not I haven’t seen the census estimate data specifically. I know the region … Wichita is becoming a destination for health care and so you’re starting to see many people in rural Kansas migrate to big cities and we’re no different. I know that our population in Wichita has grown from 2000 by nearly 40,000 people and so we will continue to see that growth and right now we need more people. We need people to fill these jobs that are in Wichita. Our unemployment’s at historic low right now.

    To view the program on YouTube starting at the point of this question, click here.

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    Notes

    1. Weeks, Bob. Wichita population, 2018. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/economics/wichita-city-population-2018/. ↩
    2. Weeks, Bob. Wichita population falls; outmigration continues. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/wichita-government/wichita-population-falls-outmigration-continues/. ↩
  • Kansas personal income

    Kansas personal income

    For the first quarter of 2019, the rate of personal income growth in Kansas was less than the national rate, although better than the Plains states.

    Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the United States Department of Commerce, released state personal income data for the first quarter of 2019. The news release is here.

    For Kansas, personal income in 2019 Q1 was $148,991 million, an increase of 3.0 percent from the previous quarter. (These values, while considering one quarter, are expressed as an annual rate, and are adjusted for seasonality.) For the nation, the increase was 3.4 percent. For Plains states, the increase was 2.1 percent. (For this data, Plains States are Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.)

    The increase in Kansas was thirty-sixth best among the states.

    For the first quarter of 2019, earnings in Kansas grew by $602 million. Farm earnings fell by $104 million.

    According to BEA, “Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.”

    Also from BEA: “Earnings by place of work is the sum of wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. BEA’s industry estimates are presented on an earnings by place of work basis.”

    Click for larger image and the news release..
  • Wichita airport hotel ownership unclear

    Wichita airport hotel ownership unclear

    The Wichita City Council plans to use the consent agenda to vote on an item containing confusing language.

    For the Tuesday June 25, 2019 meeting of the Wichita City Council meeting, item No. II-17 concerns the city leasing land to a company wanting to build and operate a new hotel near the airport. 1 The agenda packet holds this language:

    “Upon execution of the lease, WEH will provide a $2 million good faith security deposit in escrow with the Airport to ensure timely construction of the hotel. Upon completion of the roof construction, the deposit will be available to WEH for additional construction costs. WEH will invest a minimum of $12 million of private funds to build and equip the property, which the structure will be owned by the WAA in accordance with existing policy. During the life of the lease, WEH is required to make periodic capital improvements and re-investment obligations in order to maintain its franchise agreement with a national flag hotel.” (emphasis added)

    (WEH is Wichita Eisenhower Hotel, LLC, a private company formed to construct and operate the hotel. WAA is the Wichita Airport Authority, which is the same as the Wichita City Council.)

    Reading this, can you tell me who will own the hotel building? I wondered, so I posed this question by email to the city’s public information officer: “The sentence fragment ‘which the structure will be owned by the WAA in accordance with existing policy’ sounds like the hotel building will be owned by the Wichita Airport Authority. Is this correct?”

    I received a generic response that illuminated nothing. 2 My follow-up question was not acknowledged by the end of the day.

    The council will, at least according to its schedule, consider this item tomorrow morning. Will city council members, acting as the Wichita Airport Authority, have a clear idea of the meaning of this agenda item and the supporting contract?

    I think I know what it means. WEH will own the hotel and lease the land from the city. There’s language like this: “The development group requesting a lease agreement has formed a Kansas corporation to own and operate a hotel on the Airport.” (emphasis added)

    Further, the lease is priced by the square foot of land (49.6 cents per square foot per year), although after four years that is replaced by a minimum agreed amount or a percent of the revenue of the hotel.

    All this points to WEH owning the hotel building, not the city through the Airport Authority, although the Wichita Business Journal has a different opinion. 3 But it’s a shame that we must guess what the city means.

    Will city council members also have to guess? Perhaps. This item is on the airport’s consent agenda. Unless a council member speaks up and asks for clarification, there will be no discussion on this item.

    —
    Notes

    1. Wichita city council final agenda packet for June 25, 2019. Available at https://wichita.gov/Council/Agendas/06-25-2019%20Final%20Council%20Packet.pdf. ↩
    2. “All buildings and land are owned by the Airport Authority, with just a few exceptions. The FAA owns the control tower and the Post Office and the County owns the buildings at Jabara’s WSU Tech campus. But even in those cases, the land is owned by the Authority. Tenants pay land and building rent but do not pay property taxes.” ↩
    3. The Wichita Airport Authority, which will also own the structure …” McCoy, Daniel. *New hotel planned for Wichita Eisenhower National Airport. Available at https://www.bizjournals.com/wichita/news/2019/06/21/new-hotel-planned-for-wichita-eisenhower-national.html. ↩
  • From Pachyderm: Todd Johnson, Wichita Crime Commission

    From Pachyderm: Todd Johnson, Wichita Crime Commission

    From the Wichita Pachyderm Club this week: Todd Johnson, president of the Wichita Metro Crime Commission. This audio presentation was recorded on June 21, 2019. The accompanying visual presentation is available below.

    Shownotes

    • Slides from Johnson’s presentation: click here.
    • Wichita Metro Crime Commission website.

    Todd Johnson of the Wichita Crime Commission speaking at the Wichita Pachyderm Club.
  • Kansas jobs, May 2019

    Kansas jobs, May 2019

    Employment in Kansas grew in May 2019, but continued a trend of slower growth than the nation. The labor force is smaller.

    Data released yesterday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows rising employment in Kansas for May 2019. (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

    Using seasonally adjusted data, from April 2019 to May 2019, nonfarm employment in Kansas rose by 600, which is 0.04 percent. Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for May 2019 rose by 12,900 or 0.9 percent over last May. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is higher at 16,500, or 1.2 percent.

    Over the year (May 2018 to May 2019), the Kansas labor force is up by 0.1 percent using seasonally adjusted data, with declines of 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent over the last two months. Non-seasonal data shows a decline of 1,574 (0.1 percent) in the labor force over the year.

    The number of unemployed persons fell from April 2019 to May 2019 by 222, or 0.4 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent in May, up from 3.3 percent from one year ago, and unchanged from April.

    Using seasonal data, Kansas jobs increased by 0.91 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 1.58 percent.

    Of the growth of 600 jobs from April to May, 100 were in the private sector, and 500 in government.

    Goods-producing jobs fell by 1,100, while service-providing jobs rose by 1,700.

    Construction jobs fell by 1,600, and 1,300 jobs were gained in trade, transportation, and utilities.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    In the following chart of showing job changes from the same month one year ago, Kansas is always below the national rate.

    In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, Kansas sometimes outperforms the nation.

  • Airport traffic statistics, 2018

    Airport traffic statistics, 2018

    Airport traffic data presented in an interactive visualization, updated through 2018.

    This visualization holds data from TranStats, a service of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS), which is the independent statistical agency within the United States Department of Transportation (DOT). While monthly data is available, this visualization holds annual totals.

    The nearby example shows data starting in 2010 for the nation (blue lines) and Wichita. The visualization holds data for all U.S. airports with scheduled flights.

    Example from the visualization, showing Wichita compared to all airports, through 2018. Click for larger

    A few observations regarding Wichita airport traffic as compared to the nation:

    • Since 2014, passenger traffic (departing passengers) at the Wichita airport is higher, but traffic for the nation as a whole is much higher.
    • The number of scheduled departures has been declining in Wichita, while increasing for the nation after a decline.
    • The number of available seats on departing flights from Wichita has been mostly level, while rising sharply for the nation.
    • Load factor for Wichita has been rising, while level and declining slightly for the nation.

    To view and use the interactive visualization, click here.

  • New metropolitan rankings regarding knowledge-based industries and entrepreneurship

    New metropolitan rankings regarding knowledge-based industries and entrepreneurship

    New research provides insight into the Wichita metropolitan area economy and dynamism.

    The Walton Family Foundation has released a study titled “The Most Dynamic Metropolitans,” saying it is new research ranking the economic performance of metropolitan areas in the Heartland and across the country. 1

    Of the study, the authors write “Our Most Dynamic Metropolitan Index, and the analysis contained in this report provides objective insight into the communities providing economic opportunity for their residents, separating high performers from the low. Most Dynamic Metropolitans provides fact-based metrics on near-term and medium-term performance and prospects for long-term growth. The index allows economic development officials the ability to monitor their metro’s vivacity relative to others on a national basis or within their region and state.”

    In the overall rankings, Wichita was number 319 of 379 metropolitan areas examined. Of note, this research recognizes the importance of young firms:

    While most of our metrics are commonly used indicators of economic development, the young firm employment ratio is a relatively new measure. We use factor analysis to test our hypothesis that the ratio is an indicator of longer-term economic growth. Factor analysis is a statistical tool that can derive categories, called factors, from several variables by finding the ways clusters of variables move together. A factor analysis on all of our metrics tells us that we generally have the two factors we claimed to have above: one closely relating to variables such as 2016-2017 growth in average annual pay and 2017-2018 job growth. The second most closely relating to per-capita personal income, 2013-2017 growth in real GDP, 2013-2017 average annual pay growth and the young firm employment ratio. Thus, our hypothesis regarding the young firm employment ratio seems valid.

    There have been some rankings showing Wichita doing well in jobs at young firms. 2 That’s good, as young firms — which are different from small business — are vitally important to economic growth. 3

    This study, however, shows Wichita lagging in young firm employment ratio. In these rankings, Wichita came in at position 247 of 379 metro areas. That is better than the overall ranking for Wichita, which is at number 319.

    The young firm employment ratio is calculated using data from 2016. Perhaps newer data will show something different.

    —
    Notes

    1. Walton Family Foundation. New Metropolitan Rankings Show Knowledge-Based Industries and Entrepreneurship Drive Success. June 10, 2019. Press release with links to documents available at https://www.waltonfamilyfoundation.org/about-us/newsroom/new-metropolitan-rankings-show-knowledge-based-industries-and-entrepreneurship-drive-success. ↩
    2. Weeks, Bob. Metro Monitor evaluates the Wichita economy. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/economics/metro-monitor-evaluates-wichita-economy-2018/. ↩
    3. Jason Wiens and Chris Jackson. The Importance of Young Firms for Economic Growth. Available at https://www.kauffman.org/what-we-do/resources/entrepreneurship-policy-digest/the-importance-of-young-firms-for-economic-growth. ↩
  • Updated: Metropolitan populations

    Updated: Metropolitan populations

    A visualization of the population of metropolitan statistical areas, now with annual data from 1969 through 2018.

    For most types of economic and demographic analysis, metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) are preferred to cities proper. The Census Bureau notes: “The general concept of a metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area is that of a core area containing a substantial population nucleus, together with adjacent communities having a high degree of economic and social integration with that core.” 1

    Wichita officials usually recognize this and have started to emphasize the importance of the region (the MSA), not just the city. Many of our civic agencies have named or renamed themselves like these examples: Greater Wichita Partnership, Wichita Regional Chamber of Commerce, Blueprint for Regional Economic Growth, Metropolitan Area Planning Commission, Wichita Area Planning Organization, Regional Economic Area Partnership of South Central Kansas, South Central Kansas Economic Development District.

    Further, there is more economic data available at the MSA level (compared to the city level) from agencies like Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis. This data includes important measures like employment, labor force, unemployment rate, gross domestic product, and personal income.

    This visualization has several different views of population data, from tables to charts showing relative growth. A new feature is a map. You can select a range of years, and as you point to a metropolitan area you’ll see the population change over that time.

    to access the visualization.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger.

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    Notes

  • Wichita airport traffic

    Wichita airport traffic

    Traffic is rising at the Wichita airport. How does it compare to others?

    Click for larger.
    Passenger traffic at Wichita Dwight D. Eisenhower National Airport has been rising. We know that from news reports and social media. While rising activity is good, it’s important to place Wichita in context with other airports.

    (The Wichita airport has reported data through April 2019, while comprehensive national data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics is available through February, so these comparisons are through February.)

    Media reporting on the Wichita airport often uses “passengers” as the measure. The industry, however, uses “enplanements” as the most important measure of airport traffic. When Bureau of Transportation Statistics uses the term passengers, the precise meaning of the data is enplanements. 1

    Looking at passengers (that is, enplanements) for the Wichita airport, we see that monthly Wichita passenger counts are rising, generally. 2 But not for all months. Over the past year, there were three months when traffic fell, compared to the same month of the previous year.

    Compared to the nation, there were seven months in the past year when the increase in passengers in Wichita was greater than the change for all airports, as shown in the bars for each month in the nearby chart. Because of several slow months in Wichita coupled with some the of good months in Wichita being only slightly better than the nation, the overall picture is not as good for Wichita. This can be seen by the lines in the same chart, where the change in passengers over the last year is always higher for the nation.

    Besides the number of passengers, we should also consider the number of flights departing an airport. This is particularly important to business travelers, as for them, the availability of a flight today or tomorrow may be more important than a bargain-price fare. In this chart, there are some months where the number of flights fell from the year before. The 12-month trend for Wichita is falling while rising for the nation.

    Is the reported rising passenger count at the Wichita airport good news? Of course it is. But a useful assessment requires placing the Wichita data in context. In that context, the Wichita airport is underperforming.

    Click charts for larger versions.

    In the following chart of passengers, Wichita counts are generally rising, but not as fast as the nation. This data is indexed with January 2011 representing 100. The thicker lines are the average of the prior 12 months in order the smooth the seasonality of the monthly data.

    In the following chart of the number of flights, Wichita is on a downward trend generally, although in the last two years the value has increased slightly.

    —
    Notes

    1. The government requires carriers to report enplanements, so it is a consistent measure across all airports. Further, airports generate revenue primarily from enplaned passengers rather than arriving passengers. The number of enplanements is almost exactly half the number of passengers. Over the last 15 years, enplanements in Wichita have accounted for 49.88 percent of passengers, with deplanements being 50.12 percent. ↩
    2. Passenger traffic data is highly seasonal. It is not uncommon for passenger counts in the summer months to be 25 or 30 percent higher than winter counts. Therefore, comparisons are to the same month in the previous year. ↩