Voice For Liberty

Tag: Featured

  • Wichita jobs and employment, March 2019

    Wichita jobs and employment, March 2019

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in March 2019, jobs are up, the labor force is up, and the unemployment rate is unchanged when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows a small decline in jobs from February.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows an improving, but also mixed, employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment rose from 296,000 last March to 300,700 this March. That’s an increase of 4,700 jobs, or 1.6 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, jobs in the nation grew by 1.7 percent.

    The unemployment rate in March 2019 was 3.9 percent, the same as one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by persons (0.0 percent) in March 2019 from February 2019, the number of unemployed persons rose by 149 (1.3 percent), and the unemployment rate rose from 3.7 percent to 3.8 percent. The number of employed persons not working on farms fell to 299,597 in March from 299,738 the prior month, a decline of 141 persons, or 0.0 percent.

    The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows a general decline over the past year, with some recent months of losses for both measures.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows recent declines in the rate of growth.

    Looking at the charts of changes in employment year-over-year, we see some months in the past year where Wichita outperformed the nation. That last happened in 2012.

  • State of the City, Wichita: The bright future

    State of the City, Wichita: The bright future

    Wichita Mayor Jeff Longwell’s State of the City video doesn’t seem to be based on reality.

    Recently Wichita Mayor Jeff Longwell delivered the State of the City video. It was posted to YouTube on March 28, 2019, and may be viewed here.

    Not long into the address, the mayor says, “… we must embrace the challenges we face and forge ahead into the bright future that is just around the corner.”

    Wichita MSA population, percent change from prior year. Click for larger.
    On that bright future: Since the mayor spoke, learned that the Wichita metropolitan area lost population during the year ending July 1, 2018. 1 So at the time of the address, Longwell didn’t know the area had lost population, but he should have known that the trend of population growth has been slowing, as can be seen in the nearby chart.

    What about the population of Wichita city proper, as that is the jurisdiction the mayor was elected to represent? (It’s better to look at the MSA, for a number of reasons. 2 For one, several major “Wichita” employers are not located within the Wichita city limits. Major portions of Spirit Aerosystems, for example, lie outside the city, and the city certainly takes credit for job creation there.)

    Wichita and top 100 city population, annual change. Click for larger.
    City populations are available through July 1, 2017. 3 From 2011 to 2017, the top 100 cities averaged annual growth of 1.03 percent. For the City of Wichita, the average was 0.29 percent, barely more than one-fourth the rate. (Wichita was the 50th largest city in 2017.) The trendline of growth for Wichita is down, as it is for the top 100 cities in general.

    We have to ask: With a population growing much slower than the nation — and declining in the most recent year — what is the future of Wichita?

    More importantly: Is Mayor Longwell aware of these statistics, and if so, why does he not recognize them? I hope this isn’t what he means by “embrace the challenges.”

    —
    Notes

    1. Weeks, Bob. Wichita population falls; outmigration continues. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/wichita-government/wichita-population-falls-outmigration-continues/. ↩
    2. Weeks, Bob. Wichita metropolitan area population in context. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/wichita-government/wichita-metropolitan-area-population-in-context/. ↩
    3. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for Incorporated Places of 50,000 or More, Ranked by July 1, 2017 Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2017 U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division. Release Date: May 2018 ↩
  • Updated: Employment in the States

    Updated: Employment in the States

    An interactive visualization of the civilian labor force, employment, and unemployment, for each state. Updated through March 2019.

    As seen in the nearby example, Kansas continues its undistinguished record in job growth as compared to nearby states. In the visualization, you can easily choose states to compare, select a timeframe, and look at labor force, employment, and unemployment.

    Click here to learn more about the data and access the interactive visualization.

    Click for larger.
  • Kansas jobs, March 2019

    Kansas jobs, March 2019

    Employment in Kansas continues to mostly grow in March 2019, but continues a trend of slower growth than the nation.

    Data released last week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a decline in jobs in Kansas for February 2019.

    Click for larger.

    Using seasonally adjusted data, from February 2019 to March 2019, nonfarm employment in Kansas fell by 2,500, which is 0.2 percent. Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for March 2019 rose by 5,900 or 0.4 percent over last March. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is nearly the same at 5,300.

    Over the year (March 2018 to March 2019), the Kansas labor force is up by 0.5 percent using seasonally adjusted data, with only small changes over the past three months. Non-seasonal data shows a slight decline in the labor force over the year.

    The number of unemployed persons rose from February 2019 to March 2019, rising by 792 persons, or 1.5 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent in March, up from 3.4 percent from one year ago, and also up from 3.4 percent in February.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    The following chart shows the change in nonfarm jobs over the same month one year ago. For the past several years the line for Kansas has been below the line for the nation, meaning jobs were growing slower in Kansas. Recently, however, the gap between the lines is smaller.

  • Wichita aerospace manufacturing concentration

    Wichita aerospace manufacturing concentration

    Wichita leaders want to diversify the area economy. Has there been progress?

    One way to measure the concentration of an industry in a location is by the proportion of employment in that industry. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides employment by industry for metropolitan areas. I’ve gathered the data for the Wichita MSA for two industries: Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing (NAICS code 3364) and all manufacturing. I’ve gathered this data for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area and compare it to total private sector employment. This data is not adjusted for seasonality, as some is available only in that manner.

    As the charts illustrate, there was a large shift in the two industry’s share of employment around the time of the Great Recession. Since then, the ratios have been more stable, with a slow decline until a small reversal of that trend over the last year.

    The chart of employment ratio changes from the same month one year ago confirms: Manufacturing and aerospace employment has grown faster than total private employment in the recent year or so.

    Another way to measure the concentration of an industry is through location quotients. The Bureau of Labor Statistics provides these, most notably for counties as part of the Quarterly of Census and Wages. 1 As described by BLS, “Location quotients are useful for studying the composition of jobs in an area relative to the average, or for finding areas that have high concentrations of jobs in certain occupations. As measured here, a location quotient shows the occupation’s share of an area’s employment relative to the national average.” 2

    Further: “For example, a location quotient of 2.0 indicates that an occupation accounts for twice the share of employment in the area than it does nationally, and a location quotient of 0.5 indicates the area’s share of employment in the occupation is half the national share.”

    This data is available by industry. I’ve gathered data for Aerospace Product and Parts Manufacturing (NAICS code 3364) for Sedgwick County and present it in a nearby chart.

    First, note that the location quotient is large, 30 or more. This means the concentration of workers in this industry in Sedgwick county is over 30 times the concentration nationwide.

    Second, the location quotient fell from 2007 through 2014. Since then, it has been steady.

    Has the Wichita area diversified its economy? Based on these two measures, the answer is yes. That increased in diversity happened at the same time as a large decline in aviation-related employment, that decline being larger than the decline in all Wichita-area private-sector employment. That was not planned or desired. It was a result of worldwide trends. But since then, concentration in aviation-related employment has changed little and shows signs of increasing concentration.

    From General Aviation Manufacturers Association.

    —
    Notes

    1. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Available at https://www.bls.gov/cew/datatoc.htm. ↩
    2. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Using Location Quotients to Analyze Occupational Data. Available at https://www.bls.gov/oes/highlight_location_quotients.htm. ↩
  • From Pachyderm: Majority Leader Dan Hawkins

    From Pachyderm: Majority Leader Dan Hawkins

    From the Wichita Pachyderm Club: Kansas House of Representatives Majority Leader Dan Hawkins. Representative Leo Delperdang provided the introduction. This was recorded on April 21, 2019.

  • Wichita population falls; outmigration continues

    Wichita population falls; outmigration continues

    The population of the Wichita MSA fell from 2017 to 2018, and net domestic migration continues at a high level.

    New data from the United States Census Bureau shows the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area losing population from July 1, 2017, to July 1, 2018.

    The population estimate for 2017 was 645,628, and for 2018, 644,888. This is a decline of 740 persons, or -0.11 percent. Population changes in the seven years before 2018 averaged 0.30 percent each year.

    The Wichita MSA ranked 89th largest among 383 metro areas, falling from rank 82 as recently as 2011.

    Net domestic migration for the Wichita metro area showed a loss of 3,023 persons, or 0.47 percent of the population. This change, on a proportional basis, was 301st among the 383 metro areas. It is less than the loss of 3,235 persons the year before.

    Click charts for larger versions.

    Wichita MSA population and change from prior year.
    Wichita MSA population, percent change from prior year.
    Rank of Wichita MSA population.
    Rank of Wichita MSA population one-year change.
    Wichita MSA net domestic migration.
  • Wichita jobs and employment, February 2019

    Wichita jobs and employment, February 2019

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in February 2019, jobs are up, the labor force is up, and the unemployment rate is down when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows a return to job growth.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows an improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

    Total nonfarm employment rose from 295,400 last February to 300,700 this February. That’s an increase of 5,300 jobs, or 1.8 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, jobs in the nation grew by 1.7 percent.

    The unemployment rate in February 2019 was 3.9 percent, down from 4.2 percent from one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 1,115 persons (0.4 percent) in February 2019 from January 2019, the number of unemployed persons fell by 64 (-0.5 percent), and the unemployment rate fell from 3.9 percent to 3.8 percent. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 300,080 in February from 298,01 the prior month, an increase of 1,179 persons, or 0.4 percent.

    Looking at the charts of changes in employment year-over-year, we see some months in the past year where Wichita outperformed the nation. That last happened in 2012.

    Click charts for larger versions.

  • Kansas personal income

    Kansas personal income

    For 2018, the rate of personal income growth in Kansas was near the bottom of the states, although the fourth quarter was much better.

    Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the United States Department of Commerce, released state personal income data for the fourth quarter of 2018, as well as preliminary state personal income for 2018.

    For Kansas, personal income in 2018 was $146,028 million, an increase of 3.2 percent from 2017. For the nation, the increase was 4.5 percent. For Plains states, the increase was 3.9 percent. (For this data, Plains States are Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.)

    The increase in Kansas was forty-sixth best among the states.

    Per capita personal income in Kansas was $50,155 in 2018, compared to $50,905 for Plains states and $53,712 for the nation.

    Earnings in Kansas grew by $3,159 million in 2018, although farm earnings fell by $659 million.

    For the fourth quarter of 2018, Kansas personal income grew at the annual rate of 5.7 percent, which was sixteenth-best among the states.

    According to BEA, “Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.”

    Also from BEA: “Earnings by place of work is the sum of wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. BEA’s industry estimates are presented on an earnings by place of work basis.”

    State personal income change, 2017 to 2018. Click for larger.