Voice For Liberty

Tag: Greater Wichita Partnership

  • Wichita jobs and employment, October 2019

    Wichita jobs and employment, October 2019

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in October 2019, the labor force is up, the number of unemployed persons is down, the unemployment rate is down, and the number of people working is up when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows small increases in labor force and jobs from September.

    Data released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a slowly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment rose from 301,800 last October to 304,600 this October. That’s an increase of 2,800 jobs, or 0.9 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation grew by 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate in September 2019 was 3.1 percent, down from 3.3 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 447 persons (0.1 percent) in October 2019 from September 2019, the number of unemployed persons fell by 92 (0.9 percent), and the unemployment rate was 3.4 percent, down from 3.5 percent in September. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 300,758 in October from 300,219 the prior month, an increase of 539 persons, or 0.2 percent.

    The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows the rise in employment and labor force over the last two months.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago a decline in the rate of growth of both employment and labor force. The values are (almost all) growing, but at a slower pace each month until this month and last.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows some months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 1.40 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 0.93 percent.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer time periods. The change is calculated from the same month one year ago. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

  • Sedgwick County talent attraction

    Sedgwick County talent attraction

    In an index ranking counties in talent attraction, Sedgwick County has not performed well.

    Emsi, a labor market advisor, has released its fourth annual talent attraction scorecard. Data considered by the index includes net migration, overall job growth, skilled job growth, educational attainment, regional competitiveness, and annual openings per capita. These are weighted equally.

    Among the 600 largest counties, Sedgwick County ranked 540, 543, and 537 from 2017 to 2019.

    The interactive map and more information may be found at The Fourth Annual Talent Attraction Scorecard.

    On this map, high-ranking counties are blue, with low-ranking counties red.
  • Wichita personal income grows

    Wichita personal income grows

    Wichita personal income grew at a faster rate in 2018.

    Statistics released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the United States Department of Commerce, show personal income in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area growing at an increasing rate.

    The figures released today are through calendar year 2018. For that year, personal income in the Wichita MSA was $33,060.9 million, up 6.2 percent from $31,128.2 million the previous year. These are current dollars.

    The figure for 2017 was adjusted from $30,801.3 million to $31,128.2 million.

    In the nation’s metropolitan areas, personal income grew by 5.7 percent.

    Per capita personal income in the Wichita MSA for 2018 was $51,854 in current dollars, up 6.2 percent from $48,818 in 2017. This growth rate ranked at position 26 among 384 metropolitan areas. For the nation, growth was 4.9 percent.

    BEA offers these definitions:

    Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

    Personal income is measured before the deduction of personal income taxes and other personal taxes and is reported in current dollars (no adjustment is made for price changes). Comparisons for different regions and time periods reflect changes in both the price and quantity components of regional personal income.

    The estimate of personal income for the United States is the sum of the state estimates and the estimate for the District of Columbia; it differs slightly from the estimate of personal income in the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) because of differences in coverage, in the methodologies used to prepare the estimates, and in the timing of the availability of source data.

    Per capita personal income is calculated as the total personal income of the residents of a given area divided by the population of the area. In computing per capita personal income, BEA uses Census Bureau mid-year population estimates.

  • Wichita jobs and employment, September 2019

    Wichita jobs and employment, September 2019

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in September 2019, the labor force is up, the number of unemployed persons is down, the unemployment rate is down, and the number of people working is up when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows small increases in labor force and jobs from August.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a slowly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment rose from 300,500 last September to 303,100 this September. That’s an increase of 2,600 jobs, or 0.9 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation grew by 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate in September 2019 was 3.1 percent, down from 3.4 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 398 persons (0.1 percent) in September 2019 from August 2019, the number of unemployed persons fell by 204 (1.9 percent), and the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, unchanged from August. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 300,233 in September from 299,531 the prior month, an increase of 602 persons, or 0.2 percent.

    The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows the rise in employment and labor force.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago a decline in the rate of growth of both employment and labor force. The values are (almost all) growing, but at a slower pace each month until this month.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows some months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 1.64 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 1.46 percent.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer time periods. The change is calculated from the same month one year ago. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

  • The cause of the low unemployment rate in Wichita

    The cause of the low unemployment rate in Wichita

    The unemployment rate for Wichita and the nation is nearly equal over the last eight years. Job growth for Wichita, however, has been much slower than the nation, and the labor force for Wichita is actually smaller than in January 2011. This is what has led to a low unemployment rate in Wichita: Slow job growth paired with a declining labor force.

    How does the Wichita metropolitan area compare with others regarding employment, labor force, and unemployment rate? A nearby example shows data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor. It compares the average of all United States metropolitan areas to the Wichita metropolitan area. The chart starts with January 2011, about one and one-half years after the end of the Great Recession, and ends with August 2019, which is the most recent data for this series.

    We observe that the unemployment rate for Wichita and the nation is nearly equal over the time period. Job growth for Wichita, however, has been much slower than the nation, and the labor force for Wichita is actually smaller than in January 2011. This is what has led to a low unemployment rate in Wichita: Slow job growth paired with a declining labor force.

    This illustration came from an interactive visualization I created from BLS data. Click here to learn more and use the visualization.

    Click for larger.
  • Wichita jobs and momentum

    Wichita jobs and momentum

    Given recent data and the CEDBR forecasts, Wichita’s momentum is a slowly growing economy, with the rate of growth declining.

    The Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University provides forecasts for the Wichita economy. In October, CEDBR wrote, “Total nonfarm employment in the Wichita metropolitan area grew 1.2 percent in 2018, with 3,500 new jobs created to bring the area’s employment to 298,600 workers. This was a turnaround after Wichita’s total employment declined by 2,200 jobs in 2017.” 1

    The October update didn’t forecast employment growth for the remainder of the current year, but in May, the report forecast, “Wichita’s employment expansion is forecast to continue in 2019 with 0.9 percent employment growth, adding more than 2,700 new jobs to the metropolitan area.” 2

    For the first nine months of 2019, Wichita jobs have grown from 301,600 in January to 302,600 in September, using seasonally adjusted data. That’s an increase of 1,000 jobs, or 0.3 percent. If that rate stays unchanged through the end of the year, Wichita jobs will have grown by about 0.4 percent. Given this data, it seems unlikely that the CEDBR forecast of 0.9 percent will be met.

    For 2020, CEDBR wrote in its October forecast, “For 2020, growth is expected to be more modest, as the Wichita economy is projected to add approximately 1,600 new jobs and grow 0.5 percent.”

    Click for larger.
    The reports mention declining unemployment rates. By itself, the unemployment rate tells us little, as it is the ratio of two numbers, the number of unemployed people divided by the labor force. Wichita’s low rate is mostly due to a declining, then slowly growing, labor force.

    To summarize, job growth in 2018 was 1.2 percent, forecast to be 0.9 percent in 2019 (but unlikely to meet that), and forecast to be 0.5 percent in 2020. (Recall that Wichita lost jobs in 2017.)

    Some candidates for local office in Wichita are campaigning on their record while in office, saying Wichita needs to build on its momentum. Given recent data and the CEDBR forecasts, Wichita’s momentum is a slowly growing economy, with the rate of growth declining.

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    Notes

    1. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. Wichita Employment Forecast. October 3, 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/eoc/2020-wichita-forecast.pdf. ↩
    2. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. 2019 Wichita Employment Forecast. May 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/2019-ict-forecast-may-revision.pdf. ↩
  • Looking at jobs in Wichita

    Looking at jobs in Wichita

    Examining job creation in Wichita as compared to the state and the nation.

    These charts show job changes in Wichita (Wichita MSA, the metropolitan statistical area, as that is the data that is provided monthly), Kansas, and the nation. Each chart shows the percentage, or relative, changes in nonfarm jobs on a common scale, using seasonally adjusted data. The source of data is Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor. These charts are taken from an interactive visualization of this data, which is available here.

    For the chart starting in May 2015, we can see the loss of jobs in Wichita during 2017. The situation improves after that year. Note also that the Wichita and Kansas lines, broadly speaking, show a similar trend, although the Wichita line has more variation. Also, while Wichita lost jobs in 2017, the national economy was strong and was creating jobs. (Click charts for larger versions.)

    In the chart starting in January 2018, we see Wichita mostly keeping up with the pace set by the nation, and for most of the time, doing better than the state.

    In the chart starting in January 2019, Wichita begins by closely tracking the nation, but stumbles behind in the summer. Kansas does better than the nation.

    For the first nine months of 2019, Wichita jobs have grown from 301,600 in January to 302,600 in September. That’s an increase of 1,000 jobs, or 0.3 percent. If that rate stays unchanged through the end of the year, Wichita jobs will have grown by about 0.4 percent.

    Not shown in these charts is that using not seasonally adjusted data, Wichita jobs have grown by 1.9 percent since January 2019. Using not seasonally adjusted data over a period of less than one year is problematic. For the past 12 months, using not seasonally adjusted data, jobs grew by 0.9 percent from September 2018 to September 2019.

    For reference, the Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University forecast Wichita MSA job growth at 0.9 percent for 2019, 1 slowing to 0.5 percent in 2020. 2

    Perhaps the most important chart is the following, which shows job changes starting in 1990. It’s easy to spot the recessions, and also to see that the Wichita economy has higher variability than the state or national economy. Since 1990, the Wichita and national economies were “equal” in terms of job creation as recently as 2009. Before then, if the Wichita economy fell behind, it was able to catch up with the nation. But that hasn’t been the case since the end of the Great Recession in 2009.

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    Notes

    1. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. 2019 Wichita Employment Forecast. May 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/2019-ict-forecast-may-revision.pdf. ↩
    2. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. Wichita Employment Forecast. October 3, 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/eoc/2020-wichita-forecast.pdf. ↩
  • Wichita jobs and employment, August 2019

    Wichita jobs and employment, August 2019

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in August 2019, the labor force is up, the number of unemployed persons is down, the unemployment rate is down, and the number of people working is up, all by small amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows small increases in labor force and jobs from July.

    Data released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a slowly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment rose from 298,400 last August to 300,500 this August. That’s an increase of 2,100 jobs, or 0.7 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation grew by 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate in August 2019 was 3.7 percent, down from 3.78 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 65 persons (0.0 percent) in August 2019 from August 2019, the number of unemployed persons fell by 109 (1.0 percent), and the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, down from 3.6 percent from July. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 299,705 in August from 299,531 the prior month, an increase of 174 persons, or 0.1 percent.

    The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows the rise in employment and labor force after several months of decline for both measures.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows nine consecutive months of decline in the rate of growth of both employment and labor force. The values are growing, but at a slower pace each month since November.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows some months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 1.67 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 1.57 percent.

  • Metro Monitor for Wichita, 2019 edition

    Metro Monitor for Wichita, 2019 edition

    In a report looking at the economics of the 100 largest metropolitan areas, Wichita often ranks near the bottom.

    Each year Brookings Institution creates an index of major metropolitan areas called Metro Monitor. The report, says Brookings, “explores the local realities of America’s economic progress, illuminating how metropolitan economies are performing today and over the past decade.” The report for 2019 is available here.

    The report examines the 100 largest metropolitan areas. For 2018, the Wichita MSA ranked as the 89th largest, falling from rank 82 as recently as 2011. 1

    Growth

    To examine growth of a metro, Brookings considered percentage change in jobs, percentage change in gross metropolitan product, and percentage change in jobs at young firms. The nearby charts shows the results. (Some data is not available for all metro areas.)

    Click charts for larger versions.

    Prosperity

    Prosperity looks at percentage changes in productivity, standard of living, and average wage.

    Inclusion

    Inclusion looks at percentage changes in median earnings, relative poverty, and employment rate.

    Racial inclusion

    Racial inclusion looks at change in white/people of color median earnings gap, relative poverty gap, and employment rate gap.

    Looking forward

    As the Brookings analysis ends with 2017, what might we find if the analysis was based on 2018 and 2019 data? Some of the data Brookings uses is not available until after a lengthy delay, such GDP for metropolitan areas. That data, which is an important indicator of a region’s economic health, is not yet available for 2018 for metropolitan areas.

    Employment data is available quickly, however. The nearby chart, displaying data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows changes in the number of jobs for Wichita and the nation, displaying the percentage change from the same month of the prior year. 2 It’s easy to see the slump in Wichita in 2017. Since then Wichita has improved, with some months showing greater job growth than the nation. From January 2018 to August 2019, national jobs grew by 2.6 percent, and in the Wichita MSA, by 2.2 percent. 3

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    Notes

    1. Weeks, Bob. Wichita population falls; outmigration continues. Available at https://wichitaliberty.org/wichita-government/wichita-population-falls-outmigration-continues/. ↩
    2. An interactive version of the chart is available at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=p11T. ↩
    3. FRED, from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is a resource for examining economic data and creating charts and tables. Most of the available data is data gathered from other sources, in this case the Bureau of Labor Statistics. FRED provides a consistent interactive interface to the data, and provides several ways to share the data. Start at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/. ↩