Tag: United States government

  • Trump’s Executive Power Deconstruction

    Federal Emergency Powers Claims: Comprehensive Fact-Check

    (The text that prompted this check is at the end.)

    (Research assisted by AI)

    Most claims about executive orders creating a federal “control grid” are false or grossly exaggerated. Of nine executive orders examined, three were completely mischaracterized, two significantly exaggerated, and two distorted beyond recognition. The legal framework includes substantial constitutional and statutory limitations that contradict claims about unlimited presidential power.

    The assertion that decades of bipartisan executive orders created an authoritarian control mechanism fundamentally misrepresents how U.S. emergency powers actually work. While these authorities are substantial and raise legitimate constitutional concerns, they operate within legal boundaries established by Congress and subject to judicial review – not as tools for overriding other branches of government.

    Verification of specific executive orders reveals widespread misinformation

    Three executive orders were completely falsified in their claimed authorities:

    Executive Order 11921 (Ford, 1976) was claimed to authorize “federal control over workforce/production” but actually just reorganized emergency preparedness functions between federal agencies following governmental restructuring. The order transferred Office of Emergency Preparedness functions to the Federal Preparedness Agency within GSA – a routine administrative change, not a power grab.

    Executive Order 12171 (Carter, 1979) was claimed to “seize foreign assets and establish emergency authority” but actually excluded specific intelligence agencies like CIA and NSA from federal labor-management relations rules due to national security concerns. It dealt only with federal employee union rights for sensitive agencies.

    Executive Order 13618 (Obama, 2012) was claimed to enable “federal takeover of communications during crisis” but actually reorganized existing federal government internal communications coordination without any private sector takeover authority. It dissolved the National Communications System and created an Executive Committee for better coordination.

    Two orders had their authorities significantly exaggerated:

    Executive Order 12919 (Clinton, 1994) did delegate Defense Production Act authorities over resources and production priorities during national emergencies, but these were limited to existing statutory powers with significant legal constraints and judicial oversight – not unlimited control over “food, water, energy, labor, transportation, communications.”

    Executive Order 13603 (Obama, 2012) updated existing Defense Production Act authorities rather than creating “full-spectrum control over national resources and labor.” It maintained all existing legal limitations and statutory constraints from previous orders, providing no martial law or civilian takeover powers.

    The most serious distortion involved NSPD-51/HSPD-20 (Bush Jr., 2007), which was claimed to allow the “Executive Branch to override other branches in catastrophic emergency.” The actual text explicitly requires “proper respect for the constitutional separation of powers among the branches” and establishes coordination procedures, not subordination of other branches.

    Only one order – Executive Order 13694 (Obama, 2015) on cyber sanctions – was accurately characterized as authorizing asset seizures and sanctions during cyber emergencies, though it targets foreign actors engaged in cyber attacks against U.S. infrastructure.

    Constitutional framework prohibits overriding other branches of government

    The claim that presidents can “override other branches of government” during emergencies is legally false. The U.S. Constitution provides no mechanism for suspending separation of powers during emergencies, and the Supreme Court has consistently rejected such assertions.

    The National Emergencies Act of 1976 created the current framework after Senate investigations found 470 emergency powers had accumulated since the 1930s. Rather than creating unlimited authority, the Act limits presidential power by requiring specification of which statutory authorities are being activated and mandating annual renewal. It makes available 137 statutory emergency powers that Congress has pre-authorized – not new powers created by presidential declaration.

    Supreme Court precedent in Youngstown Sheet & Tube Co. v. Sawyer (1952) established that presidents cannot seize private property without explicit Congressional authorization, even during wartime emergencies. The Court’s framework requires presidential emergency actions to have legal foundation from either Congressional authorization or explicit constitutional authority.

    Multiple structural limitations constrain emergency powers:
    Congressional oversight through reporting requirements, appropriations control, and joint resolution termination authority
    Judicial review of all emergency actions for constitutional compliance and statutory authority
    Procedural requirements under the Administrative Procedure Act and National Emergencies Act
    Constitutional rights that remain in effect during emergencies where civilian government functions

    Historical analysis reveals normal emergency preparedness evolution, not coordinated control plan

    Academic research contradicts the “decades-long bipartisan plan” characterization. Leading emergency powers scholars find that current authorities represent crisis-driven expansion during major events (World War I, World War II, Cold War, 9/11) rather than coordinated long-term planning between parties.

    The statistical reality undermines “control grid” claims. Of 37 active national emergencies as of 2021, most involve foreign policy sanctions (Iran, North Korea, Russia) rather than domestic control mechanisms. The Defense Production Act’s priority rating system is used for approximately 300,000 routine orders annually by the Pentagon – standard defense contracting, not civilian takeover.

    International comparisons using the Democratic Emergency Powers dataset show the U.S. system includes more constraints than many democracies. Countries with stronger emergency powers include France, Turkey, South Korea, and Costa Rica. The U.S. framework falls in the middle range of democratic emergency power systems.

    Reform efforts have been consistently bipartisan, with both parties proposing limitations when out of power and using authorities when governing. Multiple attempts to reform the National Emergencies Act suggest systemic concern rather than coordinated expansion of presidential power.

    Fact-checking specific claims about presidential authority

    Presidents cannot “repeal all previous executive orders with one stroke of the pen.” Even in 2025, when Trump rescinded nearly 100 executive orders from the Biden administration, each required individual listing and justification. Constitutional and legal limitations prevent wholesale revocation:
    – Some executive orders implement congressionally mandated programs
    – Certain orders are required by statute
    – Due process and legal continuity concerns limit wholesale revocations
    – Administrative Procedure Act requirements apply to many changes

    Claims about “taking everything from you with a signature” grossly misstate legal reality. Emergency powers are constrained by existing statutory authorities, constitutional limitations, and judicial oversight. The Stafford Act limits federal disaster assistance to situations where state resources are inadequate. The Defense Production Act requires presidential determinations and is subject to Congressional appropriations. International Emergency Economic Powers Act sanctions must involve “unusual and extraordinary threat” originating substantially from abroad.

    The characterization of emergency orders as a “control grid” or “machine” lacks academic support. Constitutional law scholars studying emergency powers don’t characterize the current system as an authoritarian control mechanism. While expressing concerns about expansion since 9/11, experts distinguish between authoritarian practices (politicizing institutions, permanent emergency rule) and the current U.S. system with time-limited declarations and judicial review.

    Current status shows unprecedented expansion but within legal framework

    Trump has declared 8 national emergencies in his first six months of 2025 – more than any president this century in equivalent time. These include a Southern Border Emergency, National Energy Emergency, Economic Emergency for tariffs, and Cartel Emergency designating cartels as foreign terrorist organizations.

    However, courts have pushed back on emergency power overreach. Federal trade courts initially ruled against Trump’s tariff emergency powers, and the Court of International Trade found Trump exceeded authority in using emergency powers for tariffs. California sued over misuse of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. While appeals are ongoing, judicial review remains functional.

    Constitutional experts warn of concerning precedent-setting. Princeton’s Kim Lane Scheppele called it “pedal to the metal on executive power,” warning it resembles “the fall of democracies in other places through expansion of unlimited executive power.” The Brennan Center’s Elizabeth Goitein noted that most declarations “appear designed to get around Congress on policy questions,” which is “inappropriate use of emergency powers.”

    Conclusion

    The comprehensive fact-check reveals that claims about executive orders creating a federal control mechanism are largely false or grossly exaggerated. Most alleged authorities were either completely mischaracterized or significantly overstated. The legal framework includes substantial constitutional and statutory constraints that prevent presidents from overriding other branches of government, contrary to the central claim examined.

    While legitimate concerns exist about emergency power expansion – particularly under the current administration’s unprecedented usage – characterizing this as a coordinated “control grid” or authoritarian takeover mechanism lacks support from legal analysis, historical evidence, and academic research. The system represents emergency preparedness authorities that have evolved through crisis responses within democratic governance structures, albeit with concerning recent expansion that merits continued oversight and potential reform.

    __

    The text that prompted this check:

    The Machine Was Built to Control You
    and Now Trump Can Tear It Down
    I’ve been tracking this for years.
    Not headlines.
    Not talking points.
    The executive orders. The mechanisms. The control grid.
    Here’s what I found—and why 2025 changes everything:
    ?
    1. It started in 2018.
    I sat down and read the actual executive orders.
    What I found wasn’t speculation.
    It was a documented federal takeover plan built quietly across decades, under both parties.
    2. Republican vs Democrat was a distraction.
    While we were divided, they were building a machine to control:
    Our food
    Our water
    Our labor
    Our movement
    Our energy
    Our communications
    Our private property.
    3. Every president from Gerald Ford to Barack Obama added a layer.
    None reversed course.
    None gave up power.
    They just changed the packaging.
    Let’s break it down:
    4. Gerald Ford – 1976
    ?? EO 11921
    Authorized federal control over the workforce and domestic production during an emergency.
    5. Jimmy Carter – 1979
    ?? EO 12171
    Seized foreign assets and established emergency authority over military and property during international crises.
    6. Ronald Reagan – 1988
    ?? EO 12656
    Assigned emergency preparedness roles to every federal agency.
    This became the backbone of government continuity planning.
    7. George H.W. Bush – 1990
    ?? EO 12734
    Gave the military power to seize control of U.S. transportation systems.
    Control the roads. Control the people
    8. Bill Clinton – 1994
    ?? EO 12919
    Let federal agencies take over:
    Food
    Water
    Energy
    Labor
    Transportation
    Communications
    Even the authority to direct civilian labor
    9. George W. Bush – 2007
    ?? NSPD-51 / HSPD-20
    Secret directive that allowed the Executive Branch to override all other branches in a “catastrophic emergency”.
    Paired with federal control of energy, telecom, and finance.
    10. Barack Obama – ’12–’15
    ?? EO 13603 – Full-spectrum control over national resources and labor
    ?? EO 13618 – Federal takeover of communications during crisis
    ?? EO 13694 – Asset seizures & cyber emergency sanctions
    By 2015, they could take everything from you—with a signature.
    11. This wasn’t incompetence.
    It was design.
    Each order built on the last.
    Each president expanded federal power.
    None of this was debated publicly.
    You weren’t supposed to notice.
    But some of us did.
    12. Then came Trump.
    He wasn’t groomed.
    He wasn’t owned.
    He didn’t owe the machine a damn thing.
    So they:
    Spied on him
    Smeared him
    Impeached him
    Sabotaged his presidency
    Because he wasn’t there to protect it.
    13. Now it’s 2025.
    Trump is back.
    And here’s what most people don’t realize:
    Every one of those orders can be repealed with one stroke of the pen.
    He doesn’t need Congress.
    Just courage.
    14. What Trump Can Repeal Right Now:
    ? EO 13603 (Obama)
    ? EO 13618 (Obama)
    ? EO 13694 (Obama)
    ? EO 12919 (Clinton)
    ? NSPD-51 (Bush Jr.)
    ? EO 12734 (Bush Sr.)
    And all the rest mentioned…
    Each one is a control lever.
    Each one can be destroyed
    15. That’s why they’re terrified.
    Trump doesn’t need new laws.
    He needs a pen and a spine.
    If he repeals those orders, the entire machine collapses.
    16. This is the moment.
    Trump is back. The structure is exposed.
    And the only thing between us and another generation of federal tyranny is action.
    This doesn’t end with a war.
    It ends with a signature.
    18. No filter. No spin. Just truth, fire, and receipts.
    This isn’t just about Trump.
    It’s about what they built—and who has the guts to tear it down.

  • Deficit shrank in August, but …

    Deficit shrank in August, but …

    The top takeaway of the Congressional Budget Office Monthly Budget Review for August 2020 is that the deficit for the month is smaller than last August. But there are details.

    Sometimes it pays to read the fine print. Otherwise, you may receive a false impression. Here is the monthly budget review for August 2020, which is the eleventh month of fiscal year 2020:

    The federal budget deficit in August 2020 was $198 billion, CBO estimates, $3 billion less than the deficit in August of last year. However, that comparison is distorted by shifts in the timing of certain payments in both years that had opposite effects on the August deficit in their respective years.

    Because September 1, 2019, fell on a weekend, federal payments totaling about $52 billion were made in August rather than in September of that year (increasing the deficit in August). A similar shift, of $57 billion, occurred this year, but from August into July, reducing the August 2020 deficit. Without those timing shifts, the deficit this August would have been $106 billion (or 72 percent) larger than in the same month last year. Outlays for unemployment compensation contributed significantly to the deficit this August, accounting for about half of the increase in government spending (excluding the timing shifts). (emphasis added)

    The full report is at Monthly Budget Review for August 2020.

    As can be seen in the nearby chart, the deficit for fiscal year 2020 was tracking closely the deficit for the prior year. Then came spending on the pandemic. (The full report has an interactive version of the chart.)

    But duplicating the budgetary performance, deficit-wise, of fiscal 2019 is not a positive accomplishment. As CBO reported earlier: “In fiscal year 2019, which ended on September 30, the federal budget deficit totaled $984 billion — $205 billion more than the shortfall recorded in 2018. The deficit increased to 4.6 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019, up from 3.8 percent in 2018 and 3.5 percent in 2017. As a result, federal debt held by the public rose to 79.2 percent of GDP, up from 77.4 percent at the end of fiscal year 2018.” (emphasis added)

    Click for larger.
  • Border wall procedures criticized

    Border wall procedures criticized

    A government watchdog says the procedures for acquiring the southern border wall are inadequate, and the ability to maintain complete operational control is diminished.

    A report by the Office of Inspector General of the Department of Homeland Security finds that U.S. Customs and Border Protection found the procedures for procuring the southern border wall inadequate for the task.

    Specifically, the IG found that CBP did not attempt to identify “the most effective, appropriate, and affordable solutions to obtain operational control of the southern border as directed.” Instead, the IG described the methods as “outdated.”

    The report found other deficiencies and concluded: “the likelihood that CBP will be able to obtain and maintain complete operational control of the southern border with mission-effective, appropriate, and affordable solutions is diminished.”

    The report is dated July 14, 2020 with the title “CBP Has Not Demonstrated Acquisition Capabilities Needed to Secure the Southern Border.” It is report number OIG-20-52 and is available here.

    The executive summary is this:

    U.S. Customs and Border Protection has not demonstrated the acquisition capabilities needed to effectively execute the Analyze/Select Phase of the Wall Acquisition Program. Specifically, CBP did not conduct an Analysis of Alternatives to assess and select the most effective, appropriate, and affordable solutions to obtain operational control of the southern border as directed, but instead relied on prior, outdated border solutions to identify materiel alternatives for meeting its mission requirement. CBP did not use a sound, well-documented methodology to identify and prioritize investments in areas along the border that would best benefit from physical barriers. Additionally, the Department did not complete the required plan to execute the strategy to obtain and maintain control of the southern border, as required by its Comprehensive Southern Border Security Study and Strategy. Without an Analysis of Alternatives, a documented and reliable prioritization process, or a plan, the likelihood that CBP will be able to obtain and maintain complete operational control of the southern border with mission-effective, appropriate, and affordable solutions is diminished. We made three recommendations to improve CBP’s ongoing investments for obtaining operational control of the southern border. DHS concurred with recommendation 2 but did not concur with recommendations 1 and 3.

  • Federal revenue and outlays

    Federal revenue and outlays

    An interactive visualization of federal government revenue and spending from 1962 to the present.

    This data comes from the Congressional Budget Office Budget and Economic Data page. While CBO often makes projections of the future and those projections may be controversial, the data in this visualization is historical.

    CBO presents this data in current dollars and as a percent of gross domestic product, or GDP. When current dollars are adjusted to account for inflation, the result is “real dollars.” In this visualization, I have used the CPI to convert current dollars to the value of dollars in 2019.

    CBO also presents data as a percentage of gross domestic product. This is a measure of the portion of our national income that is spent as outlays or taxed as revenue.

    Click here to learn more about the data and access this visualization.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger.
  • Relations with North Korea

    Relations with North Korea

    The Congressional Research Service has produced a summary and timeline of recent events pertaining to the United States and North Korea relationship.

    In May the Congressional Research Service published a timeline of events relating to the relationship between the United States and North Korea. The document is available here: North Korea: A Chronology of Events from 2016 to 2020.

    Here is a portion of the report’s introduction, with footnote references removed:

    Since Kim and President Trump’s first summit in Singapore in June 2018, however, little progress has been made on denuclearization, despite two more Kim-Trump meetings (a February 2019 summit in Hanoi and a one-hour June 2019 meeting in Panmunjom). Since the June 2019 meeting, only one round of talks has been held and it did not produce a breakthrough. U.S. officials say their North Korean counterparts have refused to engage in additional negotiations.

    The deadlock largely is due to disagreements over the timing and sequencing of concessions that each side should provide.4 In particular, North Korea is seeking significant sanctions relief in return for the steps it claims it already has taken, but U.S. officials have said sanctions will not be eased until denuclearization is complete.

    Meanwhile, North Korea appears to be enhancing its military capabilities. In addition to continuing to produce nuclear material, between May 2019 and late March 2020, North Korea conducted multiple short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) tests; such tests violate United Nations Security Council prohibitions. Its motivation was possibly to advance the reliability of its solid fuel and guidance systems and develop capabilities to thwart short-range missile defense systems.

    In February 2020 written testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, the Commander of U.S. Northern Command said “recent engine testing suggests North Korea may be prepared to flight test an even more capable ICBM design that could enhance Kim’s ability to threaten our homeland during a crisis or conflict.” President Trump has dismissed the significance of these tests. Since the Hanoi summit, North Korea also has largely refused to interact with South Korea, spurning Moon’s efforts.

    In a possible signal that the active diplomatic phase of current U.S.-DPRK relations may be coming to an end, Kim in December 2019 announced that, due to the United States’ policies “to completely strangle and stifle the DPRK … there is no ground” for North Korea to continue to maintain its nuclear and missile testing moratorium. Kim criticized the United States’ continuation of sanctions, joint military exercises with South Korea, and shipments of advanced military equipment to South Korea. Kim warned, “the world will witness a new strategic weapon to be possessed by the DPRK in the near future.” The statement noted that this could be adjusted depending on the “U.S. future attitude.”

  • Electoral College math

    Electoral College math

    In the Electoral College, residents of different states have widely varying influence.

    When thinking about the desirability of the Electoral College for electing a president, the arithmetic should be considered.

    I have performed a few calculations, gathering state populations and the number of Electoral College votes. Here are the two extremes: In Wyoming, there are 192,579 people for each Electoral College vote (577,737 / 3). In Texas, the number is 755,312. That’s a difference of 3.92, which is a lot, I would say. For Kansas, the number is 485,251. The average value for a state (weighting all states equally) is 513,088, although the population of the country divided by 538 is 608,118. (I include the District of Columbia, as it has EC votes.)

    Sample of the table in the visualization.

    I present these calculations in an interactive visualization that you may access here.

    Plot of state population versus Electoral College Power Index. Click for larger.

    The visualization also holds a plot of state populations and Electoral College Power Index. By that, I mean the relative “power” of a state resident over their Electoral College votes. The state with the highest number of residents per Electoral College vote is Texas, which is assigned the value of one. Wyoming’s value is 3.92.

    Note that a California resident, by living in the most populated state, votes in a state with 719,219 persons per Electoral College vote, which is the third-lowest state in power index (1.05). When Vermonters vote, they vote in a state with 208,766 residents per Electoral College vote, which is a power index of 3.62.

  • Federal budget summary for 2019

    Federal budget summary for 2019

    Federal revenues for 2019 were up, but spending increased by a larger amount, resulting in a higher deficit.

    The Congressional Budget Office has released its summary for fiscal year 2019, which ended on September 30, 2019. The headline numbers are these:

    In fiscal year 2019, which ended on September 30, the federal budget deficit totaled $984 billion — $205 billion more than the shortfall recorded in 2018. The deficit increased to 4.6 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019, up from 3.8 percent in 2018 and 3.5 percent in 2017. As a result, federal debt held by the public rose to 79.2 percent of GDP, up from 77.4 percent at the end of fiscal year 2018.

    CBO reports that total receipts were up by 4.0 percent over the previous year, but outlays rose by 8.2 percent. A timing factor, however, inflates the outlay figure, as CBO notes: “That increase would have been about $44 billion smaller — resulting in an increase of 7.1 percent — if not for the shift of certain payments from October 2017 to September 2017 because October 1 fell on a weekend.”


    The chart of outlays and receipts provided by CBO expresses these values as a percent of gross domestic product. Federal outlays are now above the long-term average.

    The release page for the report is Monthly Budget Review: Summary for Fiscal Year 2019. It holds a link to the complete report.

  • From Pachyderm: United States Representative Ron Estes

    From Pachyderm: United States Representative Ron Estes

    From the Wichita Pachyderm Club this week: United States Representative Ron Estes. This audio presentation or podcast was recorded on August 23, 2019.

    Shownotes

    • Representative Ron Estes Congressional Office: estes.house.gov
    • Map of Kansas district 4 from U.S. Census Bureau

  • WichitaLiberty.TV: United States Representative Ron Estes

    WichitaLiberty.TV: United States Representative Ron Estes

    In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: Republican candidate for Congress Representative Ron Estes explains why he should continue to be our representative in the United States House of Representatives. View below, or click here to view at YouTube. Episode 214, broadcast October 21, 2018.

    Shownotes