In the 2014 edition of Rich States, Poor States, Utah continues its streak at the top of Economic Outlook Ranking, meaning that the state is poised for growth and prosperity. Kansas continues with middle-of-the-pack performance rankings, and fell in the forward-looking forecast.
Rich States, Poor States is produced by American Legislative Exchange Council. The authors are economist Dr. Arthur B. Laffer, former Wall Street Journal senior economics writer (now Heritage Foundation Chief Economist) Stephen Moore, and Jonathan Williams, director of the ALEC Center for State Fiscal Reform.
Rich States, Poor States computes two measures for each state. The first is the Economic Performance Ranking, described as “a backward-looking measure based on a state’s performance on three important variables: State Gross Domestic Product, Absolute Domestic Migration, and Non-Farm Payroll Employment — all of which are highly influenced by state policy.” The process looks at the past ten years.
Looking forward, there is the Economic Outlook Ranking, “a forecast based on a state’s current standing in 15 state policy variables. Each of these factors is influenced directly by state lawmakers through the legislative process. Generally speaking, states that spend less — especially on income transfer programs, and states that tax less — particularly on productive activities such as working or investing — experience higher growth rates than states that tax and spend more.”
For economic performance this year, Kansas is thirty-second. That’s up three spots from last year.
In this year’s compilation for economic outlook, Kansas ranks fifteenth. That’s down four spots from last year.
Kansas compared to other states
A nearby chart shows the Economic Outlook Ranking for Kansas and some nearby states, shown as a trend over time. The jump of Kansas in 2013 is evident, as is the fall of Missouri.
Why Kansas fell
Kansas fell four spots in the Economic Outlook Ranking from 2013 t0 2014. To investigate why, I gathered data for Kansas from 2013 and present it along with the 2014 values. There are three areas that may account for the difference, One value, “Top Marginal Corporate Income Tax Rate,” did not change from 2013 to 2014, remaining at 7.00%. But the ranking for Kansas fell from 24 to 26, meaning that other states improved in this measure.
For “Personal Income Tax Progressivity (change in tax liability per $1,000 of Income)” Kansas fell two positions in rank.
In “Sales Tax Burden” Kansas also fell two spots in rank. The burden is calculated proportional to personal income. The most recent data for these measures is for 2011, so this does not include the sales tax rate change that took place on July 1, 2013.
Kansas improved three rank positions for “Debt Service as a Share of Tax Revenue.” This data is from 2011.
According to the authors of the report, there are three main conclusions to be drawn from this research:
States with lower taxes and fiscally responsible policies experience far more economic growth, job creation, and domestic in-migration than their high-tax, big government counterparts.
States are looking to become more competitive and embrace the policies that have been proven to lead to economic prosperity. Last year, 17 states substantially cut taxes, with Indiana, North Carolina, and Michigan leading the charge to vastly improve their overall economic outlooks.
California, Illinois, and New York — once economic powerhouses — continue their long slides into deeper economic malaise. While levels of economic output for these states remain high, rates of economic growth are falling behind states like Texas, North Carolina, and Utah.
How valuable is the ranking?
After the 2012 rankings were computed. ALEC looked retrospectively at rankings compared to actual performance. The nearby chart shows the correlation of ALEC-Laffer state policy ranks and state economic performance. In its discussion, ALEC concluded:
There is a distinctly positive relationship between the Rich States, Poor States’ economic outlook rankings and current and subsequent state economic health.
The formal correlation is not perfect (i.e., it is not equal to 100 percent) because there are other factors that affect a state’s economic prospects. All economists would concede this obvious point. However, the ALEC-Laffer rankings alone have a 25 to 40 percent correlation with state performance rankings. This is a very high percentage for a single variable considering the multiplicity of idiosyncratic factors that affect growth in each state — resource endowments, access to transportation, ports and other marketplaces, etc.
I question the value of this index unless it is predicting five years or more into the future. According to this, Texas should be lagging. Having just returned yesterday from a week in Texas, I can assure you, they are BOOMING.
Again, unless this is meant to look at the medium-term future, Kansas is nowhere near Texas inspire of our higher rankings for the last two years.
Wish to modify my previous comment. The colors for Texas and Nebraska are nearly identical and my eyes seemed to reverse them on first viewing.
That said, our ranking is virtually identical’s to Texas and was actually ahead last year. So, I must ask: What are we missing? Does the index actually have a positive record as a forecasting tool?
Bob.. thanks for all your good work!