President Trump delivered a wide-ranging address to House Republicans on January 6, 2026, celebrating the successful Venezuela military operation that captured Nicolás Maduro, defending his tariff policies that generated $650 billion in unexpected revenue, and proposing a bold healthcare reform to bypass insurance companies. He memorialized Rep. Doug LaMalfa, endorsed Speaker Mike Johnson, and warned Republicans they must overcome historical patterns showing the president’s party loses midterms. For a summary of the event, seeTrump GOP Retreat Speech 2026: Venezuela Operation, Tariffs, Healthcare Reform & Midterm Strategy. Assistance from Claude AI.
Summary of Fact-Check Findings
Accurate Claims:
– Venezuela military operation occurred largely as described
– Stock markets at or near record highs
– Prescription drug prices are higher in U.S. than other countries (though multiples exaggerated)
Exaggerated Claims:
– Tariff revenue: $195-288 billion vs. claimed $650 billion
– Insurance stocks: Up ~1,000% over 14 years (not recent, not 1,700%)
– DC crime: Improvement real but “seven months no murders” and “two per week” both inaccurate
False/Unverifiable Claims:
– $18 trillion investment figure
– “Favored Nations” negotiations with foreign countries raising their drug prices
Venezuela Military Operation
CLAIM: Trump stated that the U.S. conducted a military operation in Venezuela on January 3, 2026, involving “152 airplanes,” resulting in the capture of Nicolás Maduro, with “nobody killed” on the American side, and that electricity was cut off across Caracas.
VERDICT: MOSTLY ACCURATE – Some Details Require Clarification
What Actually Happened:
Operation Confirmed: On January 3, 2026, the United States did conduct a major military operation codenamed “Operation Absolute Resolve” that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, from their residence in Caracas. This is confirmed by multiple major news organizations including CNN, CBS News, NBC News, The Washington Post, and international outlets.
Verification of Specific Claims:
1. “152 airplanes”
– ACCURATE: Multiple sources confirm “more than 150 military aircraft” were involved
– Trump stated: “It was a very complex operation. There were 152 airplanes involved”
– NBC News reported: “more than 150 military aircraft and helicopters were involved”
– New York Times (cited in multiple sources) confirmed “more than 150 military aircraft and helicopters”
2. “Nobody was killed” (American side)
– PARTIALLY ACCURATE: The Pentagon confirmed 7 U.S. service members were injured during the operation, with 2 still recovering as of January 7, 2026. No American deaths have been reported.
– Pentagon official stated: “The fact that this extremely complex and grueling mission was successfully executed with so few injuries is a testament to the expertise of our joint warriors”
3. Deaths on the “other side”
– CONFIRMED BUT DISPUTED NUMBERS: Trump’s claim that “many, many killed” among Cuban and Venezuelan forces is confirmed, though exact numbers are disputed:
– Venezuela initially reported “at least 40 people” killed (updated to 80 on January 4, 2026)
– Cuba confirmed 32 Cuban citizens killed who were part of Maduro’s security detail
– Venezuelan defense minister Vladimir Padrino López reported US helicopters “fired rockets and missiles in urban areas”
4. Electricity cut off in Caracas
– CONFIRMED: Multiple sources verify widespread power outages in Caracas during the operation
– Trump stated: “The electricity for almost the entire country was, boom, turned off… There was no electricity, Caracas”
– The New York Times (cited by multiple outlets) reported the U.S. conducted a cyberattack on Venezuela’s power grid to “cut electricity across large parts of Caracas to conceal the approach of aircraft”
– Independent internet monitoring organization Netblocks confirmed “a sudden loss of internet connectivity in parts of Caracas… which corresponded to power cuts during the US military operation”
– Multiple eyewitness accounts from Caracas residents describe blackouts during the operation
Additional Confirmed Details:
- The operation began around 2:00 a.m. local time on January 3, 2026
- Approximately 200 American personnel directly participated in the raid on Maduro’s residence
- Delta Force and other special operations units breached Maduro’s compound at Fort Tiuna military complex
- Maduro and Flores were flown to New York City and arraigned in Manhattan federal court on January 5, 2026
- Both pleaded not guilty to narcoterrorism charges
- The operation involved months of CIA intelligence gathering inside Venezuela
International Response:
The operation has generated significant international controversy:
– UN Security Council members condemned the action
– China called for Maduro’s “immediate release”
– North Korea denounced it as “serious encroachment of sovereignty”
– Several U.S. allies expressed concerns about the precedent
– Democratic Senator Mark Warner questioned: “Does this mean any large country can indict the ruler of a smaller adjacent country and take that person out?”
CONCLUSION: Trump’s description of the Venezuela military operation is substantially accurate. The operation did occur as he described, involved approximately 150+ aircraft, resulted in no American combat deaths (though 7 were injured), caused significant casualties among Venezuelan and Cuban forces, and included disruption of electricity in Caracas. The main discrepancy is his characterization of “nobody killed” on the American side when he should have specified “no American deaths” while acknowledging injuries.
Sources:
CNN. (2026, January 3-6). January 3, 2026 — Maduro in US custody [Live updates]. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/venezuela-explosions-caracas-intl-hnk-01-03-26
CNBC. (2026, January 7). Seven U.S. troops injured in Venezuela raid that captured Maduro, Pentagon says. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/us-venezuela-military-operation-maduro-injuries-casualties.html
CBS News. (2026, January 5). New details on Maduro capture revealed as Hegseth shares how U.S. carried out the overnight raid. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-officials-reveal-new-details-on-the-covert-operation-to-capture-maduro/
NBC News. (2026, January 3-4). How the U.S. captured Maduro in Venezuela: A CIA team, steel doors and a fateful phone call. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/us-venezuela-strike-nicolas-maduro-captured-how-timeline-trump-rcna252041
The Washington Post. (2026, January 3). U.S. raid to capture Maduro relied on months of preparation, surprise strike. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/01/03/venezuela-maduro-capture-inside-raid/
Brookings Institution. (2026, January). Making sense of the US military operation in Venezuela. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/making-sense-of-the-us-military-operation-in-venezuela/
Cybernews. (2026, January 5). US hints at cyber role in Venezuela power outage during Caracas operation. https://cybernews.com/cyber-war/us-cyber-attack-venezuela-power-outage/
Wikipedia. (2026). 2026 United States strikes in Venezuela. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_strikes_in_Venezuela
Tariff Revenue Claims
CLAIM: Trump claimed the U.S. has collected or will collect “over $650 billion” in tariff revenue, and that officials discovered an unexpected “$39 billion” that came from tariffs.VERDICT: HIGHLY EXAGGERATED / MISLEADING
Trump’s claim of “over $650 billion” in tariff revenue is a significant exaggeration of actual collections:
Actual Tariff Revenue:
– Fiscal Year 2025 (ended September 2025): $195 billion total tariff revenue collected
– Calendar Year 2025: Estimates range from $200-288 billion
– U.S. Customs and Border Protection: Over $200 billion (Jan 20 – Dec 15, 2025)
– Bipartisan Policy Center: $288 billion
– Politico: $261 billion
– Through early 2026: Only an additional ~$62 billion collected (as of November FY2026)
The $650 Billion Claim:
To reach $650 billion would require cumulative collections over approximately 2.5-3 years at current rates, not the single year Trump implies. The figure may represent:
– A projection of future collections through 2026-2027
– A conflation with projected 10-year revenue ($2.3 trillion from FY 2026-2035 per Tax Policy Center)
– A misstatement
The “$39 Billion Discovery” Claim:
No verification found in Treasury Department statements or budget documents for this specific “accounting error” story. Such a large discrepancy would be major news and appear in official reports.
Context:
– For comparison, total federal revenue in FY 2025 was approximately $5.2 trillion
– Tariff revenue of $195 billion represented only 3.7% of total federal revenue
– The FY 2025 deficit was still $1.8 trillion despite increased tariff revenue
Sources:
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. (2025, November 4). Tariff revenue soars in FY 2025 amid legal uncertainty. https://www.crfb.org/blogs/tariff-revenue-soars-fy-2025-amid-legal-uncertainty
Tax Foundation. (2025, December). Trump tariffs: The economic impact of the Trump trade war. https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/
Tax Policy Center. (2025). Tracking the Trump tariffs. https://taxpolicycenter.org/features/tracking-trump-tariffs
U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (2025, December). CBP announces record-breaking $200 billion in tariff revenue. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/national-media-release/thanks-president-trump-cbp-announces-record-breaking-200-billion
Fortune. (2026, January 6). Trump’s trade tariff revenue is already in decline. https://fortune.com/2026/01/06/trump-trade-tariffs-revenue-inflation-stocks/
USAFacts. (2025). How much revenue does the federal government collect from tariffs? https://usafacts.org/answers/how-much-revenue-does-the-federal-government-collect-from-tariffs/
Prescription Drug Pricing Claims
CLAIM: Trump stated prescription drug prices in the U.S. are “10 to 13 or 14 times” higher than other countries, and specifically that Ozempic costs “$80 in London and $1,300 in New York.”Now let me search specifically for Ozempic pricing:VERDICT: PARTIALLY TRUE – Numbers Exaggerated
Trump’s claims about prescription drug price disparities are directionally accurate but significantly exaggerated for most medications.
General Price Disparities:
– ACCURATE BUT OVERSTATED: U.S. prescription drug prices are higher than other countries, but not typically by the 10-14x multiples Trump claims
– Actual data:
– RAND Corporation (2022 data): U.S. prices are 2.78 times higher than 33 OECD countries on average
– Brand-name drugs: U.S. prices are 3.22 times higher
– Range varies: From 1.7x (Mexico) to 7.79x (Turkey)
Ozempic Pricing Specifically:
– CLAIM ACCURACY: MIXED
– Trump claimed: “Ozempic is $80 in London and $1,300 in New York”
Actual Ozempic prices:
– United States: $936 per month (list price) – Trump’s $1,300 figure is overstated
– United Kingdom: $93 per month (list price) – Trump’s $80 figure is approximately correct
– Actual disparity: About 10x higher in U.S. vs UK (not the 16x Trump’s numbers suggest)
Other countries’ Ozempic prices:
– France: $83/month
– Australia: $87/month
– Japan: $169/month
– Germany: approximately $140/month
Important context Trump omitted:
1. Recent price reductions: As of late 2025, Novo Nordisk reduced U.S. prices significantly:
– Medicare/Medicaid negotiated price: $245/month
– Cash-pay patients: $349/month (down from $499)
– New patients: $199 for first two months
- Net vs. list prices: Novo Nordisk retains only about 60% of list price after rebates to middlemen in U.S.
-
Generic drugs: U.S. generic drug prices are actually lower than most countries (67% of comparison countries’ average)
“Favored Nations” Policy Claims:
Trump’s claims about foreign countries agreeing to raise their drug prices in negotiations cannot be verified. There is no independent evidence that:
– France or other countries agreed to “quadruple” their drug prices
– Emmanuel Macron had the conversation Trump described
– Any formal international agreements on drug pricing have been reached
The Trump administration did issue an Executive Order on “Most-Favored Nation” pricing in May 2025, but implementation details and international cooperation remain unconfirmed.
Sources:
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation. (2024). Comparing prescription drugs in the U.S. and other countries: Prices and availability. https://aspe.hhs.gov/reports/comparing-prescription-drugs
RAND Corporation. (2024, February 1). Prescription drug prices in the U.S. are 2.78 times those in other countries. https://www.rand.org/news/press/2024/02/01.html
Mulcahy, A. W., Schwam, D., & Lovejoy, S. L. (2024). International prescription drug price comparisons: Estimates using 2022 data. RAND Corporation. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA788-3.html
Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker. (2023, August 17). How do prices of drugs for weight loss in the U.S. compare to peer nations’ prices? https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/brief/prices-of-drugs-for-weight-loss-in-the-us-and-peer-nations/
Drug Discovery & Development. (2025, November 17). Novo cuts GLP-1 prices 70%, but semaglutide revenue could grow in 2026. https://www.drugdiscoverytrends.com/
Yahoo Finance. (2024, June 17). Ozempic is 1,300% more expensive in the U.S. vs the U.K.. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ozempic-1-300-more-expensive-110407376.html
Insurance Company Profits and Stock Performance
CLAIM: Trump stated insurance company stocks were “up 1,700 percent” due to Obamacare revenues.VERDICT: PARTIALLY TRUE – Exaggerated Timeframe
Trump’s claim about insurance company stock performance contains accurate data but misleads about the timeframe and current situation.
What Trump Claimed:
“Insurance company stocks were up 1,700 percent”
Actual Data:
From ACA Enactment (2010) to 2024:
– Weighted average of health insurer stocks: Up 1,032% (not 1,700%)
– Individual companies since 2010-2013:
– UnitedHealth Group: Up ~1,200%
– Molina Healthcare: Up ~1,000%+
– Cigna: Up ~800%
– Centene: Up ~425%
– Humana: Up ~500%
Key Context Trump Omitted:
- Timeframe: These gains occurred over 14-15 years (2010-2024/2025), not recently
- Recent Performance: Health insurance stocks have performed poorly in 2025:
– Down an average of 19% year-to-date in 2025
– Industry struggling with profitability in government programs
– Operating margins dropped from 3% to 0.5% (Q3 2024 vs Q3 2025)
- Current Struggles:
– UnitedHealth’s operating income down more than half year-over-year
– Medicare Advantage causing significant losses
– ACA marketplace premiums rising 18-20% in 2026
– Medical care ratios (costs vs. premiums) increasing dramatically
Trump’s Accuracy:
– Senator Roger Marshall cited similar figures in November 2025, showing UnitedHealth up “almost 1200%” since Obamacare
– Paragon Health Institute data confirms 1,032% weighted average increase from 2010
– These are cumulative gains over 14+ years, not annual or recent returns
Sources:
Paragon Health Institute. (2024, March 20). Insurer stock prices soaring after giant ACA subsidies. https://paragoninstitute.org/paragon-pic/insurer-stock-prices-soaring-after-giant-aca-subsidies/
Marshall, R. (2025, November 8). The big winner of Obamacare has always been large insurance companies [Press release]. U.S. Senate. https://www.marshall.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/
Healthcare Dive. (2025, November 12). Health insurers in government programs can’t seem to turn a profit. https://www.healthcaredive.com/news/health-insurer-profits-fall-q3-2025/
Stansberry Research. (2025, October 2). 5 healthcare stocks to watch amid rising medical premiums. https://stansberryresearch.com/
Washington DC Crime Statistics
CLAIM: Trump stated Washington DC went from “two murders a week” to “haven’t had one in seven months” and removed “over 2,000 people.”VERDICT: FALSE – Multiple Inaccuracies
Trump’s claims about Washington DC crime contain several significant inaccuracies.
CLAIM 1: “Two murders a week” previously
– VERDICT: EXAGGERATED
– 2023 (peak year): 274 homicides = average of 5.3 per week
– 2024: 187 homicides = average of 3.6 per week
– Historical comparison: 1990-1991 had over 470 murders annually (9+ per week)
CLAIM 2: “Haven’t had one in seven months”
– VERDICT: FALSE
– Axios (January 2026): “City data shows five homicides in December alone, including a deadly double shooting on New Year’s Eve”
– CNN (August 2025): Multiple murder-free weeks occurred earlier in 2025 (Feb 25-Mar 12, April 11-17, May 4-11), but not a seven-month period
– Through 2025: 89-99 homicides total (reports vary due to delayed data entry)
CLAIM 3: “Over 2,000 people” removed
– CANNOT FULLY VERIFY – Trump did not specify timeframe or whether this refers to deportations vs. arrests
– ICE arrest data from federal takeover period (Aug 2025+): Average of 150+ arrests per week
– Context: Before August, ICE averaged only 12 arrests per week in DC
Actual Crime Trends:
– 2023: Spike to 274 homicides (39.4 per 100,000)
– 2024: Dropped 32% to 187 homicides (27.3 per 100,000)
– 2025: Continued decline – fewer than 150 homicides for first time since 2017
– Violent crime overall in 2024: Down 35% from 2023, “lowest in over 30 years”
Federal Takeover Impact:
Trump ordered federal takeover of DC police in August 2025. Crime data shows:
– Property crimes dropped ~19% first week
– Violent crime dipped ~17% first week
– However: Crime was already declining before the takeover
– The decline began in 2024, continuing trend from earlier in 2025
Important Context:
– DOJ investigating whether MPD manipulated crime data
– Crime decline consistent with national trends
– Trump’s claims about “miracle” week with no murders were inaccurate – several such weeks occurred before federal takeover
Sources:
CNN. (2025, August 23). Trump’s DC takeover produces moderate drop in crime — and huge spike in immigration arrests. https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/23/politics/dc-crime-immigration-arrests-trump
The Washington Post. (2026, January 4). For the second year, D.C.’s annual homicide toll declined in 2025. https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2026/01/04/dc-homicide-decline-trump/
Axios. (2026, January 5). Violent crime in DC drops in 2025 for second straight year despite Trump claims. https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2026/01/05/violent-crime-dc-decrease-2025-donald-trump-federal-takeover
PBS NewsHour. (2025, August 12). Fact-checking Trump’s claims about homicides in DC. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/fact-checking-trumps-claims-about-homicides-in-d-c
FactCheck.org. (2025, August 22). Trump distorts violent crime statistics in ordering takeover and troops to D.C. https://www.factcheck.org/2025/08/trump-distorts-violent-crime-statistics-in-ordering-takeover-and-troops-to-d-c/
Stock Market Record Claims
CLAIM: Trump stated the stock market hit records “47 days out of 11 months” and achieved “the highest stock market in the history of our country by far.”VERDICT: PARTIALLY TRUE – Accurate on Records, Exaggerated on Frequency
Trump’s stock market claims are partially accurate but contain some exaggeration.
CLAIM 1: “47 days out of 11 months” hit new records
– CANNOT FULLY VERIFY – Specific day count not independently confirmed in searches
– Context: Stock market did hit numerous records throughout 2025, particularly:
– Gold futures: 54 record closes in 2025
– Silver futures: 17 record closes in 2025
– S&P 500: Multiple records throughout year
CLAIM 2: “Highest stock market in the history of our country by far”
– TRUE – Stock markets are at or near all-time highs as of early January 2026
– As of January 7, 2026:
– S&P 500: Closed at record 6,944.82 (January 7)
– Dow Jones: Closed at record 49,462.08 (January 7)
– Nasdaq: Near all-time highs at 23,547.17
2025 Performance Summary:
– S&P 500: Up 16.39% for year
– Nasdaq Composite: Up 20.36% for year
– Dow Jones: Up 12.97% for year
Important Context:
- Volatile Journey:
– S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% in April 2025 (near bear market territory) after Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement
– Market wiped out over $5 trillion in value in two days (largest two-day loss in history)
– Strong recovery followed, with S&P surging nearly 35% from April lows
- Comparison to First Term:
– First Trump term (2017-2020): S&P 500 up ~67%, Dow up ~55%, Nasdaq up ~100%
– Second term start: S&P up 14% through December 2, 2025 vs. 18% same period in 2017
- Sixth Consecutive Strong Year:
– 2025 marked the third straight year of double-digit gains for S&P 500
– Also the sixth year of 15%+ gains in the past seven years
Sources:
CNBC. (2026, January 7). S&P 500 notches fresh record, Dow adds nearly 500 points for first close above 49,000. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/05/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
CNBC. (2025, December 31). S&P 500 closes lower Wednesday, but wraps 2025 with a 16% gain. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/30/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
Yahoo Finance. (2025, December 31). Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq post double-digit gains in 2025. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-post-double-digit-gains-in-2025
U.S. Bank. (2025). Stock market under the Trump administration. https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/stock-market-under-trump.html
NBC News. (2025, June 27). S&P 500 hits an all-time high — rebounding to its level when Trump’s second term began. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/sp-500-hits-new-all-time-high-what-to-know-rcna215221
$18 Trillion Investment Claim
CLAIM: Trump stated “$18 trillion being invested in the United States” and “We’ve got $18 trillion pouring into our country” because of tariffs.
VERDICT: HIGHLY EXAGGERATED / UNCLEAR DEFINITION
This claim lacks clear sourcing and appears to conflate multiple economic metrics.
Possible Interpretations:
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Annual FDI into the U.S. is typically $300-400 billion, not $18 trillion
- Cumulative Announcement: May refer to announced investments over multiple years, not actual capital deployed
- Total U.S. Investment: Total domestic investment in the U.S. economy is much larger but not “foreign investment pouring in”
- Market Capitalization: Could be confusing stock market gains with investment flows
No Verification Found: Extensive searches found no credible source for an $18 trillion foreign investment figure into the United States in 2025-2026.
What We Know:
– U.S. attracted significant manufacturing investments in 2025
– Multiple companies announced factory construction
– However, no aggregate figure approaching $18 trillion has been documented
Previous Record: Trump mentioned the previous investment record was “$3 trillion many years ago, by China” – this also cannot be verified and appears inaccurate.
Summary of Fact-Check Findings
Accurate Claims:
– Venezuela military operation occurred largely as described
– Stock markets at or near record highs
– Prescription drug prices are higher in U.S. than other countries (though multiples exaggerated)
Exaggerated Claims:
– Tariff revenue: $195-288 billion vs. claimed $650 billion
– Insurance stocks: Up ~1,000% over 14 years (not recent, not 1,700%)
– DC crime: Improvement real but “seven months no murders” and “two per week” both inaccurate
False/Unverifiable Claims:
– $18 trillion investment figure
– “Favored Nations” negotiations with foreign countries raising their drug prices