The poll shows Republican Mike Pompeo leading Democrat Raj Goyle by 50 percent to 40 percent. These numbers changed just slightly from the previous survey, which had Pompeo leading 49 percent to 42 percent. Neither of the changes are statistically significant.
Four percent of the voters are undecided.
SurveyUSA’s commentary is as follows: “Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, Pompeo is up an insignificant 1 point; Goyle is down an insignificant 2. Pompeo has gained ground among the oldest, traditionally the most reliable voters, where he had trailed by 16, now leads by 4. Goyle offsets this by cutting into Pompeo’s lead among middle-aged voters, where Pompeo had led by 34 points, now leads by 20. 18% of Republicans today cross over to vote for Goyle, down from 22% last month; 12% of Democrats cross over to vote for Pompeo, up from 6% last month. Independents today lean slightly toward Goyle, favoring the Democrat by 7 points, up from a nominal 2-point lead 1 month ago.”
Goyle’s campaign has released the results of its own poll from last week, which shows Pompeo leading Goyle by 46 percent to 44 percent, a closer lead than the KWCH/SurveyUSA poll. No details of its methodology were released.
During the primary election, Jean Schodorf’s campaign released surveys that showed her to be leading. In the end, the KWCH/SurveyUSA poll correctly predicted Pompeo as the winner, although it understated the vote he actually received.
During the period between the two KWCH/SurveyUSA polls, Goyle has been actively advertising on television. The Pompeo campaign started advertising on September 9th, just before this poll was conducted.