Voice For Liberty

Tag: Economic development

  • Wichita economy grows, and a revision

    Wichita economy grows, and a revision

    The Wichita economy grew in 2018, and revised statistics show growth in 2017.

    Statistics released this month by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the United States Department of Commerce, report real gross domestic product (GDP) figures for metropolitan areas. Also included are revised statistics for previous years.

    For 2018, the Wichita metropolitan area GDP, in real dollars, grew by 3.3 percent. Revisions to 2017 data show that Wichita GDP grew by 1.7 percent in 2017. Last year BEA reported growth for that year of -1.4 percent.

    In the statistics released this month, GDP in 2018 was $32,832,296 thousand, measured in chained 2012 dollars. In 2017 it was $31,780,917 thousand, a change of $1,051,379 thousand or 3.3 percent. For the nation, real GDP grew by 2.9 percent.

    The revision to the 2017 GDP may come as a surprise. The nearby chart shows that while GDP rose in that year, employment declined.

  • Downtown Wichita population is up

    Downtown Wichita population is up

    New Census Bureau data shows the population growing in downtown Wichita.

    Data released today by the United States Census Bureau shows the estimated population for zip code 67202 in 2018 was 1,671, an increase of 73 from the prior year.

    Zip code 67202 is greater downtown Wichita, from the Arkansas River east to Washington, and Kellogg north to Central, roughly.

    The source of this data is U.S. Census Bureau, 2014-2018 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates. This means the data is not the Bureau’s estimate of the population in 2018. For areas of population less than 65,000, the Bureau does not provide one-year estimates. Instead, the five-year estimates use data gathered over a longer time period in order to provide greater accuracy. The 90 percent confidence interval for the 2018 estimate is plus or minus 214 persons.

    The Bureau cautions that the five-year estimates should not be used as the population of the year in the midpoint of the five-year period: “Therefore, ACS estimates based on data collected from 2011–2015 should not be labeled ‘2013,’ even though that is the midpoint of the 5-year period.” (See below for more about these data.)

    Further, the Bureau issues this advice: “However, in areas experiencing major changes over a given time period, the multiyear estimates may be quite different from the single-year estimates for any of the individual years.” Downtown Wichita, I believe, qualifies as an area “experiencing major changes.” The five-year estimates must be considered in light of this advice.

    Still, as shown in the nearby table and charts, the ACS numbers are far below the population reported by the downtown Wichita development agency Downtown Wichita. See my article Downtown Wichita population for more about this topic.

    Following, excerpts from the Census Bureau publication Understanding and Using American Community Survey Data: What All Data Users Need to Know.

    Understanding Period Estimates
    Single-year and multiyear estimates from the ACS are all “period” estimates derived from a sample collected over a period of time, as opposed to “point-in-time” estimates such as those from past decennial censuses. For example, the 2000 Census “long form” sampled the resident U.S. population as of April 1, 2000.

    While an ACS 1-year estimate includes information collected over a 12-month period, an ACS 5-year estimateincludes data collected over a 60-month period.

    In the case of ACS 1-year estimates, the period is the calendar year (e.g., the 2015 ACS covers the period from January 2015 through December 2015). In the case of ACS multiyear estimates, the period is 5 calendar years (e.g., the 2011–2015 ACS estimates cover the period from January 2011 through December 2015). Therefore, ACS estimates based on data collected from 2011–2015 should not be labeled “2013,” even though that is the midpoint of the 5-year period.

    Multiyear estimates should be labeled to indicate clearly the full period of time (e.g., “The child poverty rate in 2011–2015 was X percent.”). They do not describe any specific day, month, or year within that time period.

    Multiyear estimates require some considerations that single-year estimates do not. For example, multiyear estimates released in consecutive years consist mostly of overlapping years and shared data.

    The primary advantage of using multiyear estimates is the increased statistical reliability of the data compared with that of single-year estimates, particularly for small geographic areas and small population subgroups. Figure 3.2 shows the improved precision of an ACS 5-year estimate, compared with a 1-year estimate, for child poverty statistics in Rice County, Minnesota—a county with about 65,000 residents in 2015. The lines above and below the point estimates represent the confidence intervals, or ranges of uncertainty, around each estimate. The confidence interval for the 1-year child poverty estimate ranges from 1.4 percent to 9.4 percent (8 percentage points) while the interval for the 5-year estimate is narrower, ranging from 12.8 percent to 19.2 percent (6 percentage points). (Refer to the section on “Understanding Error and Determining Statistical Significance” for a detailed explanation of uncertainty in ACS data.)

    Deciding Which ACS Estimate to Use
    For data users interested in obtaining detailed ACS data for small geographic areas (areas with fewer than 65,000 residents), ACS 5-year estimates are the only option.

    The 5-year estimates for an area have larger samples and smaller margins of error than the 1-year estimates. However, they are less current because the larger samples include data that were collected in earlier years. The main advantage of using multiyear estimates is the increased statistical reliability for smaller geographic areas and small population groups.

    However, in areas experiencing major changes over a given time period, the multiyear estimates may be quite different from the single-year estimates for any of the individual years. The single year and multiyear estimates will not be the same because they are based on data from two different time periods.

  • Downtown Wichita jobs rise

    Downtown Wichita jobs rise

    The number of jobs in downtown Wichita rose sharply in 2017.

    New data from United States Census Bureau shows the number of workers in downtown Wichita rose sharply in 2017, while the number of business firms fell slightly.

    Zip code tabulation area 67202. Click for larger.

    From 2016 to 2017, the number of workers in zip code 67202 rose from 13,618 to 14,588, an increase of 970 jobs, or 7.1 percent. (Zip code 67202 is greater downtown Wichita, from the Arkansas River east to Washington, and Kellogg north to Central, roughly.)

    The number of business firms fell from 810 to 802.

    The annual payroll fell from $666,804,000 to $664,564,000, which is 0.3 percent.

    Since 2007, the number of jobs has declined by 9.3 percent, the number of business firms has declined by 9.5 percent, and annual payroll has declined by 4.2 percent.

    The significant increase in jobs in 2017 without a corresponding rise in the count of business firms is likely due in large part to the rapid expansion of two companies, King of Freight and SNT Media. The latter ceased operations in 2018.

    An interactive visualization of this data for all zip codes is available at Visualization: Zip code business patterns.


  • Wichita jobs and employment, October 2019

    Wichita jobs and employment, October 2019

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in October 2019, the labor force is up, the number of unemployed persons is down, the unemployment rate is down, and the number of people working is up when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows small increases in labor force and jobs from September.

    Data released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a slowly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment rose from 301,800 last October to 304,600 this October. That’s an increase of 2,800 jobs, or 0.9 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation grew by 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate in September 2019 was 3.1 percent, down from 3.3 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 447 persons (0.1 percent) in October 2019 from September 2019, the number of unemployed persons fell by 92 (0.9 percent), and the unemployment rate was 3.4 percent, down from 3.5 percent in September. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 300,758 in October from 300,219 the prior month, an increase of 539 persons, or 0.2 percent.

    The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows the rise in employment and labor force over the last two months.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago a decline in the rate of growth of both employment and labor force. The values are (almost all) growing, but at a slower pace each month until this month and last.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows some months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 1.40 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 0.93 percent.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer time periods. The change is calculated from the same month one year ago. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

  • The Wichita baseball team’s name

    The Wichita baseball team’s name

    Is the name of the new Wichita baseball team important? Yes, as it provides insight.

    Whatever you may think of the name of the new Wichita baseball team, it’s important. Important because the city is spending many millions on the stadium, much of it borrowed through bonds that must be repaid if the team doesn’t generate as much success (and tax revenue) as planned.

    Additionally, the city is depending on the team owners to successfully develop the four acres of surrounding land that the city gave to them. (Well, almost gave to them. They paid about four dollars.) Without successful development, the city and its residents are in trouble.

    But given that the reaction to the name is near-universal scorn, I don’t have a lot of confidence in the team owners and their judgment.

    Still, there are knowledgeable Wichitans who are praising the team’s ownership and management. I would suggest asking the people of New Orleans what they think of the promises made to them by Lou Schwechheimer, the majority owner of the team. See Coverage of Wichita baseball owner Lou Schwechheimer and Wichita vets its baseball partner(s).

    Can a city’s political and bureaucratic leaders want something so badly that they make bad decisions regarding who to choose as partners and how to structure the partnership? Yes, I’m afraid so.

  • Sedgwick County talent attraction

    Sedgwick County talent attraction

    In an index ranking counties in talent attraction, Sedgwick County has not performed well.

    Emsi, a labor market advisor, has released its fourth annual talent attraction scorecard. Data considered by the index includes net migration, overall job growth, skilled job growth, educational attainment, regional competitiveness, and annual openings per capita. These are weighted equally.

    Among the 600 largest counties, Sedgwick County ranked 540, 543, and 537 from 2017 to 2019.

    The interactive map and more information may be found at The Fourth Annual Talent Attraction Scorecard.

    On this map, high-ranking counties are blue, with low-ranking counties red.
  • Wichita personal income grows

    Wichita personal income grows

    Wichita personal income grew at a faster rate in 2018.

    Statistics released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the United States Department of Commerce, show personal income in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area growing at an increasing rate.

    The figures released today are through calendar year 2018. For that year, personal income in the Wichita MSA was $33,060.9 million, up 6.2 percent from $31,128.2 million the previous year. These are current dollars.

    The figure for 2017 was adjusted from $30,801.3 million to $31,128.2 million.

    In the nation’s metropolitan areas, personal income grew by 5.7 percent.

    Per capita personal income in the Wichita MSA for 2018 was $51,854 in current dollars, up 6.2 percent from $48,818 in 2017. This growth rate ranked at position 26 among 384 metropolitan areas. For the nation, growth was 4.9 percent.

    BEA offers these definitions:

    Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

    Personal income is measured before the deduction of personal income taxes and other personal taxes and is reported in current dollars (no adjustment is made for price changes). Comparisons for different regions and time periods reflect changes in both the price and quantity components of regional personal income.

    The estimate of personal income for the United States is the sum of the state estimates and the estimate for the District of Columbia; it differs slightly from the estimate of personal income in the national income and product accounts (NIPAs) because of differences in coverage, in the methodologies used to prepare the estimates, and in the timing of the availability of source data.

    Per capita personal income is calculated as the total personal income of the residents of a given area divided by the population of the area. In computing per capita personal income, BEA uses Census Bureau mid-year population estimates.

  • Wichita jobs and employment, September 2019

    Wichita jobs and employment, September 2019

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in September 2019, the labor force is up, the number of unemployed persons is down, the unemployment rate is down, and the number of people working is up when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows small increases in labor force and jobs from August.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a slowly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment rose from 300,500 last September to 303,100 this September. That’s an increase of 2,600 jobs, or 0.9 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation grew by 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate in September 2019 was 3.1 percent, down from 3.4 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 398 persons (0.1 percent) in September 2019 from August 2019, the number of unemployed persons fell by 204 (1.9 percent), and the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, unchanged from August. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 300,233 in September from 299,531 the prior month, an increase of 602 persons, or 0.2 percent.

    The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows the rise in employment and labor force.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago a decline in the rate of growth of both employment and labor force. The values are (almost all) growing, but at a slower pace each month until this month.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows some months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 1.64 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 1.46 percent.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer time periods. The change is calculated from the same month one year ago. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

  • Wichita jobs and momentum

    Wichita jobs and momentum

    Given recent data and the CEDBR forecasts, Wichita’s momentum is a slowly growing economy, with the rate of growth declining.

    The Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University provides forecasts for the Wichita economy. In October, CEDBR wrote, “Total nonfarm employment in the Wichita metropolitan area grew 1.2 percent in 2018, with 3,500 new jobs created to bring the area’s employment to 298,600 workers. This was a turnaround after Wichita’s total employment declined by 2,200 jobs in 2017.” 1

    The October update didn’t forecast employment growth for the remainder of the current year, but in May, the report forecast, “Wichita’s employment expansion is forecast to continue in 2019 with 0.9 percent employment growth, adding more than 2,700 new jobs to the metropolitan area.” 2

    For the first nine months of 2019, Wichita jobs have grown from 301,600 in January to 302,600 in September, using seasonally adjusted data. That’s an increase of 1,000 jobs, or 0.3 percent. If that rate stays unchanged through the end of the year, Wichita jobs will have grown by about 0.4 percent. Given this data, it seems unlikely that the CEDBR forecast of 0.9 percent will be met.

    For 2020, CEDBR wrote in its October forecast, “For 2020, growth is expected to be more modest, as the Wichita economy is projected to add approximately 1,600 new jobs and grow 0.5 percent.”

    Click for larger.
    The reports mention declining unemployment rates. By itself, the unemployment rate tells us little, as it is the ratio of two numbers, the number of unemployed people divided by the labor force. Wichita’s low rate is mostly due to a declining, then slowly growing, labor force.

    To summarize, job growth in 2018 was 1.2 percent, forecast to be 0.9 percent in 2019 (but unlikely to meet that), and forecast to be 0.5 percent in 2020. (Recall that Wichita lost jobs in 2017.)

    Some candidates for local office in Wichita are campaigning on their record while in office, saying Wichita needs to build on its momentum. Given recent data and the CEDBR forecasts, Wichita’s momentum is a slowly growing economy, with the rate of growth declining.

    —
    Notes

    1. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. Wichita Employment Forecast. October 3, 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/eoc/2020-wichita-forecast.pdf. ↩
    2. Center for Economic Development and Business Research at Wichita State University. 2019 Wichita Employment Forecast. May 2019. Available at https://www.cedbr.org/content/2019/2019-ict-forecast-may-revision.pdf. ↩