During the first two years of the Trump administration, United States manufacturing jobs grew at a monthly rate of 15,833 in 2017 and 22,000 in 2018. For 2019, through September, the monthly rate is 4,556.
Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Manufacturing [MANEMP], CES3000000001, seasonally adjusted.
For the Wichita metropolitan area in August 2019, the labor force is up, the number of unemployed persons is down, the unemployment rate is down, and the number of people working is up, all by small amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows small increases in labor force and jobs from July.
Data released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a slowly improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.
Click charts and tables for larger versions.
Total nonfarm employment rose from 298,400 last August to 300,500 this August. That’s an increase of 2,100 jobs, or 0.7 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation grew by 1.4 percent. The unemployment rate in August 2019 was 3.7 percent, down from 3.78 percent one year ago.
Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 65 persons (0.0 percent) in August 2019 from August 2019, the number of unemployed persons fell by 109 (1.0 percent), and the unemployment rate was 3.5 percent, down from 3.6 percent from July. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 299,705 in August from 299,531 the prior month, an increase of 174 persons, or 0.1 percent.
The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows the rise in employment and labor force after several months of decline for both measures.
The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows nine consecutive months of decline in the rate of growth of both employment and labor force. The values are growing, but at a slower pace each month since November.
The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows some months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. Over the past 12 months, the average monthly job growth for the nation was 1.67 percent, and for the Wichita MSA, 1.57 percent.
In a report looking at the economics of the 100 largest metropolitan areas, Wichita often ranks near the bottom.
Each year Brookings Institution creates an index of major metropolitan areas called Metro Monitor. The report, says Brookings, “explores the local realities of America’s economic progress, illuminating how metropolitan economies are performing today and over the past decade.” The report for 2019 is available here.
The report examines the 100 largest metropolitan areas. For 2018, the Wichita MSA ranked as the 89th largest, falling from rank 82 as recently as 2011. 1
To examine growth of a metro, Brookings considered percentage change in jobs, percentage change in gross metropolitan product, and percentage change in jobs at young firms. The nearby charts shows the results. (Some data is not available for all metro areas.)
Click charts for larger versions.
Prosperity looks at percentage changes in productivity, standard of living, and average wage.
Inclusion looks at percentage changes in median earnings, relative poverty, and employment rate.
Racial inclusion looks at change in white/people of color median earnings gap, relative poverty gap, and employment rate gap.
As the Brookings analysis ends with 2017, what might we find if the analysis was based on 2018 and 2019 data? Some of the data Brookings uses is not available until after a lengthy delay, such GDP for metropolitan areas. That data, which is an important indicator of a region’s economic health, is not yet available for 2018 for metropolitan areas.
Employment data is available quickly, however. The nearby chart, displaying data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows changes in the number of jobs for Wichita and the nation, displaying the percentage change from the same month of the prior year. 2 It’s easy to see the slump in Wichita in 2017. Since then Wichita has improved, with some months showing greater job growth than the nation. From January 2018 to August 2019, national jobs grew by 2.6 percent, and in the Wichita MSA, by 2.2 percent. 3
—
Notes
For the second quarter of 2019, the rate of personal income growth in Kansas was near the bottom of the states, although the rate was higher than the first quarter.
Today the Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the United States Department of Commerce, released state personal income data for the second quarter of 2019.
For Kansas, personal income in the second quarter of 2019 was $154,820 million, an increase of 3.9 percent from the first quarter. For the nation, the increase was 5.4 percent. (These values, while considering one quarter, are expressed as an annual rate, and are adjusted for seasonality.) For Plains states, the increase was 3.9 percent. (For this data, Plains States are Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The second quarter of the calendar year consists of the months of April, May, and June.)
The increase in Kansas was forty-third best among the states.
Earnings in Kansas grew by $717 million in 2019 Q2 from Q1, although farm earnings fell by $276 million.
According to BEA, “Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.”
Also from BEA: “Earnings by place of work is the sum of wages and salaries, supplements to wages and salaries, and proprietors’ income. BEA’s industry estimates are presented on an earnings by place of work basis.”
Employment and the labor force rose in Kansas in August 2019 compared to the two previous months. Kansas employment continued a trend of lower growth than the nation over the year, but has been stronger in recent months.
Data released yesterday from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows an improving picture for employment in Kansas for August 2019. (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)
Using seasonally adjusted data, from July 2019 to August 2019, nonfarm employment in Kansas rose by 7,900, which is 0.6 percent. Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for August 2019 rose by 15,500 or 1.1 percent over last August. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is higher at 20,300, or 1.4 percent.
Over the year (August 2018 to August 2019), the Kansas labor force is down by 2,731 (0.2 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with an increase of 0.1 percent over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows an increase of 6,941 (0.5 percent) in the labor force over the year.
The number of unemployed persons fell from July 2019 to August 2019 by 1,005, or 2.1 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.3 percent in August, down 0.1 percentage points from one year ago, and down the same amount from July.
Using seasonal data, Kansas nonfarm jobs increased by 1.09 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 1.39 percent. Non seasonal data shows Kansas nonfarm jobs rising by 1.44 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 1.38 percent.
Click charts and tables for larger versions.
In the following chart of showing job changes from the same month one year ago, Kansas is always below the national rate.
In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, Kansas has outperformed the nation four of the past five months.
An interactive visualization of Wichita-area employment by industry.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, makes monthly employment statistics available. I’ve gathered them for the Wichita metropolitan statistical area and present them in an interactive visualization.
This visualization is updated with data through July 2019.
To learn more about the data and access the visualization, click here.
For the Wichita metropolitan area in July 2019, the labor force is up, the number of unemployed persons is down, the unemployment rate is down, and the number of people working is up when compared to the same month one year ago. Seasonal data shows small increases in labor force and jobs from June.
Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows an improving employment situation for the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area.
Click charts and tables for larger versions.
Total nonfarm employment rose from 295,700 last July to 301,500 this July. That’s an increase of 5,800 jobs, or 2.0 percent. (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation grew by 1.5 percent. The unemployment rate in July 2019 was 4.0 percent, down from 4.2 percent one year ago.
Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 227 persons (0.1 percent) in July 2019 from June 2019, the number of unemployed persons fell by 141 (1.3 percent), and the unemployment rate was 3.6 percent, unchanged from June. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 299,680 in July from 299,312 the prior month, an increase of 368 persons, or 0.1 percent.
The following chart of the monthly change in labor force and employment shows the rise in employment and labor force after several months of decline for both measures.
The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows s consecutive months of decline in the rate of growth of both employment and labor force. The values are growing, but at a slower pace each month since January.
Employment rose and the labor force in Kansas fell slightly in July 2019 compared to the two previous months, and employment continued a trend of lower growth than the nation over the year.
Data released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mixed picture for employment in Kansas for July 2019. (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)
Using seasonally adjusted data, from June 2019 to July 2019, nonfarm employment in Kansas rose by 2,500, which is 0.2 percent. Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for July 2019 rose by 14,200 or 1.0 percent over last July. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is higher at 18,300, or 1.3 percent.
Over the year (July 2018 to July 2019), the Kansas labor force is down by 2,870 (0.2 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with declines of 0.2 percent and 0.0 percent over the last two months. Non-seasonal data shows a decline of 1,589 (0.1 percent) in the labor force over the year.
The number of unemployed persons fell from June 2019 to July 2019 by 915, or 1.8 percent. The unemployment rate was 3.3 percent in July, unchanged from one year ago, and down from 3.4 percent in June.
Using seasonal data, Kansas nonfarm jobs increased by 1.00 percent over the past 12 months, while national jobs grew by 1.51 percent.
The gain of 2,500 jobs from June to July consisted 3,700 of gains in the private sector and 1,200 lost in government.
Goods-producing jobs rose by 600, and service-providing jobs grew by 1,900.
Construction jobs grew by 200, manufacturing grew by 400, and 800 jobs were gained in trade, transportation, and utilities.
Click charts and tables for larger versions.
In the following chart of showing job changes from the same month one year ago, Kansas is always below the national rate.
In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, Kansas sometimes outperforms the nation.
Kansas spending is rising, and will probably rise at a faster pace.
Figures from Kansas financial reports show that state spending has risen, and based on approved budget, will rise at a faster pace.
The following tables and charts show actual data through fiscal year 2018. Data for fiscal years 2019 and 2020 are based on figures approved by the legislature and governor, plus estimates regarding the future economy.
In the following table, spending increases from the general fund average 7.3 percent per year for 2010 through 2020. There is a budget surplus, primarily due to changes in tax law that produced a 15.0 percent increase in receipts to the general fund in 2018.
Based on currently-approved figures, the general fund will swing from surplus to deficit in 2020.
Click charts for larger versions.
Following charts show increases in spending for the general fund and all funds spending (see below for an explanation of the funds). These charts are adjusted for inflation where appropriate, and show spending per resident, along with spending as a portion of private sector production and personal income.
The Governor’s Budget Report for 2020 explains:
The State General Fund receives the most attention in the budget because it is the largest source of the uncommitted revenue available to the state. It is also the fund to which most general tax receipts are credited. The Legislature may spend State General Fund dollars for any governmental purpose.
Special revenue funds, by contrast, are dedicated to a specific purpose. For instance, the Legislature may not spend monies from the State Highway Fund to build new prisons.
Other examples of special revenue funds are the three state building funds, which are used predominantly for capital improvements; federal funds made available for specific purposes; and agency fee funds, which can generally be used only to support specific functions related to the agency collecting the fee. The Economic Development Initiatives Fund, the Children’s Initiatives Fund, the Kansas Endowment for Youth Fund, the Expanded Lottery Act Revenues Fund, and the State Water Plan Fund are appropriated funds that function the same as the State General Fund.
The principal that “may not spend monies from the State Highway Fund to build new prisons” is often violated in practice, and example being the well-known transfers from the highway fund to the general fund.