In a social media post, President Donald J. Trump stated:
“INFLATION UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP
Dropped to 2.7%
the first overall price decline since 2020”
The statement reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the distinction between inflation and the price level.
Inflation is the rate of change in prices over time, not the level of prices themselves. A positive inflation rate (such as 2.7 percent) means that prices are still rising. An “overall price decline” would require negative inflation (deflation), meaning the inflation rate is below zero. A 2.7 percent inflation rate is incompatible with an “overall price decline.” Prices cannot be falling overall if inflation is positive.
The statement makes two claims that cannot simultaneously be true:
• Inflation was 2.7 percent
• There was an “overall price decline”
If inflation is 2.7 percent, the aggregate price level is increasing, not decreasing. At most, one could say that the rate of price increases slowed compared to earlier periods of higher inflation. That is disinflation, not deflation.
Thus, the statement conflates:
• Disinflation (inflation slowing)
with
• Deflation (prices falling)
The phrasing strongly suggests that Trump is treating inflation as synonymous with “high prices,” rather than as the rate at which prices change. This is a common rhetorical error in political discourse but a serious conceptual mistake in economic terms. Specifically, it implies:
• Confusion between inflation rates and price levels
• Failure to distinguish between slowing inflation and falling prices
• A tendency to claim credit for price declines that the stated data do not support
This mirrors a pattern seen in prior statements where reductions in inflation are described as price cuts, even though accumulated price increases remain embedded in the economy.
A technically correct version of the claim — if inflation were indeed 2.7 percent — would be something like:
“Inflation slowed to 2.7 percent, meaning prices continued to rise but at a slower pace.”
The statement by Trump is economically incorrect. It demonstrates a misunderstanding of inflation as a level rather than a rate, and it incorrectly equates disinflation with falling prices. A positive inflation rate, including 2.7 percent, cannot logically coexist with an overall decline in prices.