Could the science behind all the models that predict global warming be wrong? Dr. Roy Spencer believes it is.
His article A Layman’s Explanation of Why Global Warming Predictions by Climate Models are Wrong takes a while to read, but it’s worth the time and effort. It all comes down to this:
Thus, the most important debate is global warming research today is the same as it was 20 years ago: How will clouds (and to a lesser extent other elements in the climate system) respond to warming, thereby enhancing or reducing the warming? These indirect changes that further influence temperature are called feedbacks, and they determine whether manmade global warming will be catastrophic, or just lost in the noise of natural climate variability.
It turns out that “all 23 climate models tracked by the IPCC now exhibit positive cloud and water vapor feedback.” Spencer believes that there is a “mix-up between cause and effect” that results in a positive bias in temperature change. According to his research, publication forthcoming, the feedback is actually negative. In his words, “The negative feedback was so strong that it more than canceled out the positive water vapor feedback we also found.”
While there are a number of other potentially serious problems with climate model predictions, the mix-up between cause and effect when studying cloud behavior, by itself, has the potential to mostly deflate all predictions of substantial global warming. It is only a matter of time before others in the climate research community realize this, too.
Currently we’re being asked to accept huge increases in taxes and energy costs all in the name of saving the planet from global warming. It’s already started, as our local electric utility in Wichita has had to ask for several rate increases to support its efforts in renewable energy — costs it would not have incurred if not pressured by threats from politicians.
Now it turns out that the science behind these decisions is likely wrong.
The problem of global warming, to the extent it truly exists and is caused by man, is a problem with a very long time horizon for its solution. We need to slow down and make sure we truly understand the problem and its causes before we make drastic policy changes that will harm our economy and our prosperity.