President Trump’s January 19, 2025 press gaggle contained a mix of accurate statements, misleading claims, disputed assertions, and false characterizations. While some claims about stock market performance and the timing relative to his inauguration anniversary were accurate, many of his most sweeping assertions about economic investment, inflation, war-ending, and NATO cannot be fully verified or are contradicted by official sources and data. Assistance from Claude AI.
For a summary of the event, see Trump Pre-Davos Press Gaggle: Greenland Claims, Economic Boasts, and Board of Peace Updates – January 19, 2025.
Verified Claims
Inauguration Anniversary Timing
ACCURATE: Trump’s statement that “tomorrow is the first year” was correct. He was inaugurated on January 20, 2025, making January 19, 2025 indeed one day before his first anniversary in office.
Source: Multiple sources confirm Trump’s second inauguration occurred on January 20, 2025.
Stock Market Performance
ACCURATE: Trump’s claim that “the stock market’s at an all time high” was accurate at the time of the press gaggle. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all set new records in late 2025 and early January 2026. The S&P 500 finished 2025 up approximately sixteen percent, the Dow up thirteen percent, and the Nasdaq up twenty percent, marking the third consecutive year of double-digit gains.
Source: Multiple financial reports confirm record-breaking market performance in this period, with the Dow crossing 49,000 for the first time in early January 2026.
Nobel Prize Letter
VERIFIED: Trump’s references to the Nobel Prize and Greenland align with a letter he wrote to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre that was released the day after this press gaggle. The letter explicitly connected Trump’s Greenland push to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.
Source: Multiple news organizations confirmed the letter’s contents, which stated Trump felt less “obligation to think purely of Peace” after not receiving the award.
Misleading or Exaggerated Claims
Manufacturing Investment Claims
PARTIALLY SUPPORTED: While there is substantial evidence of increased manufacturing investment announcements in 2025, Trump’s claim that this represents “more money being invested in our country than any country in history” is an overstatement that cannot be verified.
Context: Multiple reports document billions in new factory projects throughout 2025, including major announcements from Apple (five hundred billion dollars over four years), Hyundai (twenty-one billion dollars from 2025-2028), and hundreds of other facilities. However, Deloitte’s 2026 Manufacturing Industry Outlook notes manufacturing faced challenging conditions in 2025 with construction spending declining and the PMI index remaining below fifty for much of the year, indicating contraction rather than expansion in the sector overall.
Assessment: Significant manufacturing announcements occurred, but the “more than any country in history” claim lacks verification and overlooks the broader context of sector contraction.
Inflation Claims
MISLEADING: Trump’s claim that “we have very little inflation” misrepresents the data. As of December 2025, annual inflation stood at 2.7 percent, and January 2025 had shown inflation at three percent with core inflation at 3.3 percent.
Context: While inflation has decreased substantially from the peak of over nine percent in June 2022, describing 2.7-3 percent as “very little inflation” overstates progress, as the Federal Reserve’s target is two percent, meaning inflation remains above target.
FALSE CLAIM: Trump’s assertion about inheriting “the highest inflation in history” is factually incorrect. While peak inflation during the Biden administration reached 9.1 percent in June 2022, this was not the highest in U.S. history—inflation in the 1970s-early 1980s reached higher rates, with inflation approaching fifteen percent in 1980.
NATO Spending Claims
MISLEADING AND PARTIALLY INACCURATE: Trump’s claim that he “got them to go 5% and pay as opposed to 2% and not pay” fundamentally mischaracterizes the timeline and current status.
Reality: NATO allies agreed at the June 2025 Hague Summit to increase defense spending to five percent of GDP by 2035—a future commitment, not a current achievement. As of 2024-2025, NATO allies had just recently achieved the two percent target set in 2014, with twenty-three out of then-thirty-one members meeting that goal by 2024.
Context: Trump’s framing suggests allies are currently paying five percent when in fact this is a commitment for 2035. The two percent target itself has only recently been achieved across most of the alliance after years of incremental progress.
Disputed or Unverifiable Claims
India-Pakistan War Claims
DISPUTED: Trump’s claim about stopping a war between India and Pakistan is actively disputed by one of the key parties involved.
Pakistan’s Position: Pakistan credited Trump with a role and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif allegedly thanking Trump for saving millions of lives.
India’s Position: India has consistently and explicitly denied that the United States played a mediating role in the May 2025 ceasefire. Indian officials stated the ceasefire was reached through direct military-to-military channels between India and Pakistan, with no third-party involvement.
Expert Assessment: FactCheck.org noted that while experts confirmed U.S. involvement in some conflicts Trump mentioned, Indian leaders specifically refute the India-Pakistan claim.
Frequency: Trump has repeated this claim more than eighty times despite India’s denials.
Claim of Stopping “Eight Wars”
MIXED VERIFICATION: Trump’s broader claim about stopping eight wars receives mixed assessments from conflict resolution experts.
Analysis: Research from peace institutes indicates Trump’s list of “ended wars” includes a mixture of actual armed conflicts, diplomatic tensions, and situations that never escalated to full warfare. Experts confirmed U.S. involvement helped end or de-escalate some conflicts (Israel-Iran, Thailand-Cambodia, Armenia-Azerbaijan), but others on Trump’s list either were not traditional wars or had outcomes disputed by the nations involved.
Key Issue: Trump’s definition of “war” appears expansive and includes situations that conflict researchers would not classify as active warfare.
Additional Context Issues
Economic Conditions Inheritance
Trump’s characterization of inheriting “a failure with open borders, no business, everything going badly, terrific inflation” requires context. While inflation was elevated when Trump took office in January 2025 (running around three percent), this represented a significant decrease from the 9.1 percent peak in June 2022. The economy showed mixed signals rather than pure failure—unemployment remained relatively low and economic growth continued, though inflation remained above the Federal Reserve’s target.
Nobel Prize Control Claims
Trump’s assertion that Norway “controls” the Nobel Peace Prize despite having “a board” is technically incorrect. The Norwegian Nobel Committee is an independent body whose five members are appointed by the Norwegian Parliament, but the Norwegian government itself does not control prize decisions, as Norwegian Prime Minister Støre clarified.
Fact-Check Methodology Note
This fact-check utilized authoritative primary sources including:
- Bureau of Labor Statistics (inflation data)
- Financial market tracking services (stock performance)
- NATO official statements and data
- Official government statements from India, Pakistan, Norway, and Denmark
- Academic research from conflict resolution institutes
- Manufacturing industry reports from reputable trade publications
Where claims could not be verified or were disputed by involved parties, this analysis noted the dispute rather than making a definitive ruling.
Overall Assessment
The press gaggle demonstrates a pattern where Trump’s most verifiable claims (stock market records, inauguration timing) prove accurate, while his most sweeping assertions (historical investment levels, inflation characterizations, war-ending claims, NATO spending achievements) range from misleading to disputed to factually incorrect. The economic claims in particular show a tendency to overstate achievements while the India-Pakistan claims reveal a willingness to maintain assertions despite explicit denials from one of the involved nations.
I’ll conduct a comprehensive fact-check of the major claims in this transcript using authoritative sources. Let me systematically verify the key assertions Trump made during this press gaggle.
VERIFIED – TIMING CLAIM: Trump was inaugurated on January 20, 2025. The press gaggle occurred on January 19, 2025, which was indeed the day before his first anniversary in office. Trump’s claim that “tomorrow is the first year” is accurate.
Now let me verify the economic claims:
PARTIALLY SUPPORTED – MANUFACTURING CLAIMS: There is substantial evidence of increased manufacturing investment announcements in 2025, with multiple reports documenting billions in new factory projects throughout the year. However, Trump’s claim that this represents “more money being invested in our country than any country in history” requires more scrutiny. While 2025 did see significant manufacturing announcements, including major projects from companies like Apple ($500 billion over four years announced in February), Hyundai ($21 billion from 2025-2028), and hundreds of other facilities, the context shows this followed a period of manufacturing contraction. Deloitte’s 2026 Manufacturing Industry Outlook notes that manufacturing faced challenging conditions in 2025 with construction spending declining and the PMI index remaining below 50 for much of the year, indicating contraction rather than expansion in the sector overall.
Now let me check inflation and stock market claims:
MIXED – INFLATION CLAIMS: Trump’s claim that “we have very little inflation” is misleading. As of December 2025, annual inflation stood at 2.7%, and January 2025 had shown inflation at 3% with core inflation at 3.3%. While inflation has decreased from the peak of over 9% in 2022, describing 2.7-3% as “very little inflation” overstates the progress. The Federal Reserve’s target is 2%, meaning inflation remains above target. Trump’s claim about inheriting “the highest inflation in history” is also incorrect—peak inflation in June 2022 reached 9.1%, which occurred during Biden’s presidency, but this was not the highest in U.S. history (the 1970s-early 1980s saw higher rates, with inflation reaching nearly 15% in 1980).
Now let me check stock market claims:
VERIFIED – STOCK MARKET CLAIMS: Trump’s claim that “the stock market’s at an all time high” was accurate around the time of this press gaggle (January 19, 2025). Multiple reports confirm that the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all set new records in late 2025 and early 2026. The S&P 500 finished 2025 up approximately 16%, the Dow up 13%, and the Nasdaq up 20%. Early January 2026 saw the Dow cross 49,000 for the first time and the S&P 500 continue setting records. This marked the third consecutive year of double-digit gains for major indexes.
Now let me verify the Greenland and NATO claims:
VERIFIED – NOBEL PRIZE LETTER: Trump’s comments in the press gaggle about the Nobel Prize and Greenland align with a letter he wrote to Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre that was released to media the day after this press gaggle (January 19, 2025). The letter explicitly connected Trump’s Greenland push to not receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, stating he felt less “obligation to think purely of Peace.” Trump’s claim in the gaggle that he doesn’t care about the Nobel Prize contradicts the substance of his letter, which uses the Nobel decision as justification for his Greenland position.
Now let me check claims about stopping wars and NATO:
DISPUTED – INDIA-PAKISTAN CLAIMS: Trump’s claim about stopping a war between India and Pakistan is disputed. While the Trump administration was involved in diplomatic efforts after an India-Pakistan conflict in May 2025, and Pakistan credited Trump with a role, India has consistently and explicitly denied that the United States played a mediating role. Indian officials stated that the ceasefire was reached through direct military-to-military channels between the two countries. FactCheck.org noted that experts confirmed U.S. involvement in some conflicts Trump mentioned, but Indian leaders specifically refute the claim regarding India-Pakistan. Trump has repeated this claim more than 80 times despite India’s denials.
Now let me check the NATO spending claims:
MISLEADING – NATO SPENDING CLAIMS: Trump’s claim that he “got them to go 5% and pay as opposed to 2% and not pay” is misleading and partially inaccurate. While NATO allies did agree at the June 2025 Hague Summit to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, this was not yet achieved at the time of the January 19, 2026 press gaggle. As of 2024-2025, NATO allies had just recently achieved the 2% target that was set in 2014, with 23 out of then-31 members meeting that goal by 2024, and all members expected to meet it by 2025. The 5% target agreed upon in June 2025 is a commitment for 2035, not something already achieved. Trump’s framing makes it sound like allies are currently paying 5% when they are not.