Assistance from Claude AI.
Summary
Of the seven major factual claims examined from President Trump’s November 16, 2025 press gaggle, none were accurate as stated. Two claims were demonstrably false (grocery prices declining, Venezuela’s prison population), two were significantly exaggerated (immigration numbers, insurance stock performance), two were misleading due to important omitted context (Thanksgiving meal prices, highest inflation claim), and one was false regarding specific polling numbers (Massie’s approval rating). These findings align with fact-checking analyses conducted by multiple nonpartisan organizations including FactCheck.org, PolitiFact, CNN, and Snopes, all of which found similar patterns of inaccuracy in Trump’s economic and immigration-related assertions.
For a complete summary of the press gaggle, see Donald Trump Speaks to Reporters Before Air Force One Departure on November 16, 2025.
Claim 1: Grocery Prices Are “Coming Down Very Substantially”
Verdict: False
President Trump stated that grocery prices “are coming down very substantially on groceries and things” and that they’re “at a much lower level than they were with the last administration.”
The Facts: Government data demonstrates the opposite trend. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, food-at-home prices (grocery store purchases) increased 0.4% from July to August 2025 and were 2.7% higher than in August 2024 (U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, 2025). Food prices in September 2025 were approximately 2.7% higher than a year prior and about 1.4% higher than in January 2025 when Trump returned to office (Dale, 2025). CNN’s fact-checking analysis confirmed that “average grocery prices rose 0.3% from August to September” and that grocery price increases “have been broad, spanning the vast majority of product categories tracked by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics” (Dale, 2025, para. 4).
The claim contradicts publicly available Consumer Price Index data showing continued grocery price inflation throughout 2025, with overall food inflation running at approximately 3% annually as of mid-2025 (U.S. Inflation Calculator, 2025).
Claim 2: Thanksgiving Meals Are “25% Lower” Than Under Biden
Verdict: Misleading
Trump claimed that Thanksgiving meals from Walmart and other retailers are “25% lower than it was under the Biden administration.”
The Facts: While Walmart’s 2025 Thanksgiving meal basket costs approximately 25% less than its 2024 basket, this comparison is misleading because the baskets contain different items and quantities. The 2025 meal includes only 15 different products compared to 22 in 2024, with 22 total individual items versus 29 the previous year (Fichera, 2025). Key differences include the 2024 basket containing a pre-made pecan pie, sweet potatoes, and additional cans of soup that were eliminated from the 2025 offering (Walmart, 2025).
FactCheck.org conducted an analysis recreating the 2024 shopping cart using current prices and found that when comparing identical items, the actual price decrease was only about 6.5%, not 25% (Fichera, 2025). The organization noted, “Trump has ignored why the cost of the store’s holiday dinner went down so much this year” by omitting mention of the reduced item count and product substitutions (Fichera, 2025, para. 4).
Independent analysis by Wells Fargo found that overall Thanksgiving meal costs declined only 2-3% year-over-year, attributing this to specific commodity price changes rather than general deflation (Picchi, 2025).
Claim 3: Insurance Company Stocks Are “Up Over a Thousand Percent, Over a Short Period of Time”
Verdict: False
Trump claimed that insurance companies “are making a fortune. Their stock is up over a thousand percent, over a short period of time.”
The Facts: Major health insurance stocks have not experienced gains of over 1,000% in any recent short time period. UnitedHealth Group (UNH), the largest health insurer, has actually declined significantly in recent periods. According to FinanceCharts data, UNH stock showed a 15-year total return of 1,122.42%, but this represents growth over a decade and a half, not “a short period of time” (FinanceCharts, 2025). More critically, UNH’s performance in 2025 has been poor, with the stock down 46.63% over the trailing twelve months and down 38.04% year-to-date as of November 2025 (FinanceCharts, 2025).
Healthcare sector analysis reveals that health insurance stocks have faced substantial challenges in 2025, with elevated medical cost ratios putting pressure on profitability. UnitedHealth’s medical care ratio reached 89.4% in Q2 2025, representing increased costs and reduced profit margins (Stansberry Research, 2025). The broader healthcare sector actually retreated 4.1% through May 2025, making it one of four S&P 500 sectors in negative territory (U.S. Bank, 2025).
Claim 4: Venezuela Released “Their Almost Entire Prison Population” Into the United States
Verdict: False
Trump stated, “Their almost entire prison population was released into the United States. You know what that mean? Their prison population was released into the United States.”
The Facts: Multiple fact-checking organizations and Venezuela experts have found no evidence supporting this claim. FactCheck.org investigated the allegation and found that “experts in and out of Venezuela told us there is no evidence to back up Trump’s claim” (Robertson & Kiely, 2024, para. 2). The FBI has made no such admission, and searches of news archives and FBI press releases revealed no such announcement (Ahmed, 2024).
Venezuelan prison population data contradicts Trump’s assertion. According to the Observatorio Venezolano de Prisiones, Venezuela’s prison population declined from 37,543 in 2020 to 32,200 in 2022, but experts attribute this to factors including prison relocations, mass migration reducing overall population, and the government’s efforts to address overcrowding (Robertson & Kiely, 2024). Gustavo Sánchez, author of a book on Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang, stated, “There is no element, no evidence, nothing that indicates that in Venezuela prisoners are being released to leave or to be sent to the United States to commit crimes” (Robertson & Kiely, 2024, para. 12).
PolitiFact’s investigation concluded that Venezuela’s crime decline “stems from its poor economy, mass migration and the government’s extrajudicial killings, not the government emptying prisons” (Ramirez Uribe, 2024, para. 3).
Claim 5: Biden Administration Allowed “20 or 25 Million” People to Enter the Country
Verdict: Significantly Exaggerated
Trump claimed that “the single worst thing they did is allow 20 or 25 million people to pour into our country.”
The Facts: This figure substantially overstates documented border encounters. According to the House Committee on Homeland Security, total nationwide encounters under the Biden administration exceeded 10.3 million through August 2024, with approximately 2 million additional “known gotaways” (individuals observed but not apprehended) (House Committee on Homeland Security, 2024). However, this 10+ million figure represents encounters, not unique individuals who successfully entered and remained in the country.
Critical context that Trump’s figure ignores: First, encounters include the same individuals apprehended multiple times. Under the Title 42 pandemic policy, migrants could attempt entry repeatedly without penalty, driving the rate of repeat encounters to 27% in 2021, up from 7% in 2019 (Ebbs, 2024). Second, of those encountered, approximately 2.8 million were removed or returned directly from Customs and Border Protection custody through October 2024, with total Department of Homeland Security repatriations reaching 3.7 million including ICE removals (Kiely & Robertson, 2024).
Migration Policy Institute analysis estimated that through July 2024, more than 5.8 million migrants had been paroled in or otherwise allowed entry to pursue asylum applications, a figure substantially lower than Trump’s claim (Kerwin et al., 2025). Even accounting for encounters, releases, and estimated gotaways, fact-checking analyses calculate the actual number at approximately 4-4.5 million people who were either released into the U.S. or evaded capture, far below Trump’s “20 or 25 million” assertion (Factually, 2025).
Claim 6: Biden Had “The Highest Inflation in the History of Our Country”
Verdict: False
Trump stated, “They had the highest inflation in the history of our country.”
The Facts: While inflation during the Biden administration reached a 40-year high, it was not the highest in U.S. history. Inflation peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, but historical data shows significantly higher inflation rates in previous decades (Snopes, 2024). According to World Bank data charted by the St. Louis Federal Reserve, consumer price inflation was substantially higher in 1980 (13.5%), 1981 (10.3%), 1979 (11.3%), 1975 (9.1%), and 1974 (11.1%) (Snopes, 2024).
The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that while 2022’s inflation rate was at its highest level in more than 40 years, multiple periods in the 1970s and early 1980s saw double-digit inflation rates exceeding what occurred during Biden’s presidency (Snopes, 2024). Total cumulative inflation under Biden from January 2021 through January 2025 was 21.5%, with food prices rising 21.2% during that period (Newman, 2025; Snopes, 2024). While this represented significant price increases that impacted household budgets, characterizing it as the highest in U.S. history is demonstrably incorrect.
Claim 7: Representative Thomas Massie Has “6% Approval Rating”
Verdict: False
Trump claimed that Representative Thomas Massie’s “poll numbers are showing he is at 6% approval rating right now.”
The Facts: Available polling data does not support a 6% approval rating for Massie. A Kaplan Strategies poll from June 2025 of likely Republican primary voters in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District found that Massie’s favorability rating was 23%, with 62% viewing him unfavorably (Ault, 2025). The same poll showed his “reelect score” at 19% when asked if voters planned to vote for him regardless of challengers, dropping to 14% if Trump endorsed a primary opponent (Kaplan Strategies, 2025).
An August 2025 McLaughlin and Associates poll showed Massie’s job approval at 39%, down from 52% in June, with his overall favorability at 43% (Sweeny-Platt, 2025). None of the publicly available polling data approaches the 6% figure Trump cited. The confusion may stem from a Kaplan Strategies finding that only 6% of voters supported U.S. non-involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict, a foreign policy position rather than Massie’s approval rating (Kaplan Strategies, 2025).
References
Ahmed, S. (2024, April 4). No, the FBI did not say Venezuela sent its prison population to the U.S. PolitiFact. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2024/apr/04/instagram-posts/no-the-fbi-did-not-say-venezuela-sent-its-prison-p/
Ault, A. (2025, July 1). Thomas Massie gets brutal news from poll. Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/thomas-massie-poll-kentucky-trump-2092884
Dale, D. (2025, October 24). Fact check: Grocery prices are up, not ‘way down’ as Trump claimed. CNN Politics. https://www.cnn.com/2025/10/24/politics/fact-check-grocery-prices-trump
Ebbs, S. (2024, April 16). Border crossings and immigration: How Biden and Trump compare. The Christian Science Monitor. https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2024/0416/biden-trump-immigration-border-crossings
Factually. (2025, November 12). Fact check: How many illegal aliens enter the US during the Biden administration. https://factually.co/fact-checks/politics/illegal-aliens-entering-us-biden-administration-numbers-ba0536
Fichera, A. (2025, November 13). Trump serves a misleading Thanksgiving meal statistic. FactCheck.org. https://www.factcheck.org/2025/11/trump-serves-a-misleading-thanksgiving-meal-statistic/
FinanceCharts. (2025). UnitedHealth Group (UNH) total return YTD, TTM, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, 20Y. https://www.financecharts.com/stocks/UNH/performance/total-return
House Committee on Homeland Security. (2024, September 23). Startling stats factsheet: Biden and Harris’ border crisis still wreaking havoc. https://homeland.house.gov/2024/09/23/startling-stats-factsheet-biden-and-harris-border-crisis-still-wreaking-havoc-at-the-borders-and-in-the-interior/
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Kerwin, D., Warren, R., & Nicholson, M. (2025, February 11). Biden’s mixed immigration legacy: Border challenges overshadowed modernization advances. Migration Policy Institute. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/biden-immigration-legacy
Kiely, E., & Robertson, L. (2024, February 20). Breaking down the immigration figures. FactCheck.org. https://www.factcheck.org/2024/02/breaking-down-the-immigration-figures/
Newman, R. (2025, January 16). The final accounting on ‘Bidenflation.’ Yahoo Finance. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-final-accounting-on-bidenflation-212613508.html
Picchi, A. (2025, November 11). Food prices are up, but your Thanksgiving feast will cost less this year. CBS News. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/2025-thanksgiving-meal-prices-walmart/
Ramirez Uribe, M. (2024, April 10). Trump exaggerates Venezuelan crime drop and misleads on root causes. PolitiFact. https://www.wlrn.org/immigration/2024-04-10/donald-trump-venezuelan-crime-drop
Robertson, L., & Kiely, E. (2024, June 21). Crime drop in Venezuela does not prove Trump’s claim the country is sending criminals to U.S. FactCheck.org. https://www.factcheck.org/2024/06/crime-drop-in-venezuela-does-not-prove-trumps-claim-the-country-is-sending-criminals-to-u-s/
Snopes. (2024, September 11). U.S. inflation hit highest level in history under Biden? https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/biden-worst-inflation-in-us-history/
Stansberry Research. (2025, October 2). 5 healthcare stocks to watch amid rising medical premiums. https://stansberryresearch.com/stock-market-trends/rising-medical-premiums-what-it-means-for-health-care-stocks-in-2025
Sweeny-Platt, M. (2025, August 16). Thomas Massie’s polling numbers “turned upside down” by MAGA campaign. Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/thomas-massie-donald-trump-poll-2113897
U.S. Bank. (2025, November 10). Healthcare stocks in 2025. https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/healthcare-stocks.html
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Walmart. (2025, October 21). Walmart’s annual Thanksgiving meal returns — Serving 10 people for less than $4.00 per person. https://corporate.walmart.com/news/2025/10/21/walmarts-annual-thanksgiving-meal-returns-serving-10-people-for-less-than-4-00-per-person