For February 2022, Kansas tax revenue was 5.3 percent less than February 2021 and down 46.8 percent from January 2022.
Tax reports from the State of Kansas for February 2022 show tax revenues declining from the previous month and smaller than the same month the prior year.
When reporting on Kansas tax collections, the comparison is usually to the estimated tax collections. Those estimates are revised based on economic conditions affected by the response to the pandemic. To get a feel for the effects of the response to the pandemic, we should compare to the same month the prior year. (The estimated revenue figures are still important because the state bases the budget on them. If the actual revenue is much below the estimated revenue, there may not be enough income to pay expenses.)
For February 2022, individual income tax collections were $183.3 million, down by 5.3 percent from last February. Retail sales tax collections rose by 8.9 percent to $195.2 million from last February. Total tax collections were $502.5 million, up 10.2 percent from last February. A nearby table summarizes. (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)
For fiscal year 2022, which started on July 1, 2021, total tax collections are higher by 5.6 percent over the same period of the previous fiscal year.
Kansas tax revenues continue to outperform estimates. When the line is above zero in the nearby chart, actual revenue was greater than the estimate, and the line is nearly always positive. Estimates are essential because the legislature uses them to make spending decisions. Beyond that, the variance between actual revenue and the estimate doesn’t have much meaning. The governor uses a positive variance as a sign of economic success, but this is incorrect. It just as easily means the estimates are wrong, possibly for reasons other than the inherent difficulties of making estimates.
The pandemic, or rather the response to the pandemic, produced a drop in tax revenue in 2020. This chart shows that revenue has recovered. Since August, revenue has been rising consistently and is above the trendline of the past five years. That difference is widening. (These figures are not adjusted for inflation.)
I have updated my interactive visualization of Kansas tax revenue with this data. Click here to use it.
As of this writing, the governor has not issued a press release for this news. The report from Kansas Legislative Research Department is available on this page.