Tag: Economics

  • Wichita jobs and employment, January 2021

    Wichita jobs and employment, January 2021

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in January 2021, the number of unemployed persons is down, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down when compared to the same month one year ago. The recent trend is positive.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effects of the response to the pandemic in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for January 2021.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment fell from 306,200 in January 2020 to 283,100 in January 2021, a loss of 23,100 jobs (7.5 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation fell by 6.1 percent. The unemployment rate in January 2021 was 6.8 percent, up from 3.6 percent the same month one year prior.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 6,404 persons (2.0 percent) in January 2021 from December 2020, the number of unemployed persons rose by 6,056 (40.7 percent), and the unemployment rate was 6.5 percent, up from 4.7 percent in December. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 301,230 in January from 300,882 the prior month, an increase of 348 persons (0.1 percent).

    The following chart of the monthly change in the labor force and employment in Wichita shows the magnitude of the drop in employment in April 202 overwhelming other months, and thenbotha positive and negative changes in employment for the following months. The rate of job growth is generally small except for October. The number of people in the labor force has both grown and shrank.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a similar trend — fewer jobs, although the difference is becoming smaller as more people return to work.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation before the pandemic. In months affected by the pandemic, we see the loss in employment Wichita has not been as severe as the nation, although that is not the case in recent months.

    The following chart shows the monthly change in nonfarm jobs for Wichita and the nation. For January, the number of jobs in Wichita rose slightly, while for the nation, the number also rose by a smaller amount.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

    (For data on all metropolitan areas in the nation, see my interactive visualization Metro area employment and unemployment. It is updated through January 2021.)

    The link to the archived version of the BLS news release for this month may be found here.

  • Kansas jobs, January 2021

    Kansas jobs, January 2021

    In Kansas for January 2021, the labor force shrank while the number of people working rose, resulting in a drop in the unemployment rate.

    Data released this week from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows a mixed employment picture in Kansas for January 2021.

    (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

    Using seasonally adjusted data, from December 2020 to January 2021, nonfarm employment in Kansas rose by 10,000 jobs (0.7 percent). Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for January 2021 was lower by 66,400 (4.6 percent) over the same month last year. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is 68,000 fewer jobs (4.8 percent).

    Over the year (January 2020 to January 2021), the Kansas labor force rose by 2,256 people (0.2 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with a fall of 15,983 (1.1 percent) over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows a rise of 23,222 (1.6 percent) in the labor force over the year.

    The Kansas economy had been adding jobs each month since May, but there was a decline in September. Since then, the monthly jobs count has both risen and fallen by small amounts, but the increase of 10,000 in January is significantly larger. There are now 93,900 more jobs in Kansas than in April 2020, the low point since the pandemic. There are 64,100 fewer jobs than in February 2020, just before the pandemic.

    The number of unemployed persons fell from December 2020 to January 2021 by 19,635 (27.4 percent). The unemployment rate was 3.5 percent in January, up 0.4 percentage points from one year ago, and down 1.2 percentage points from last month.

    Comparing Kansas to the nation: Using seasonal data, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs is 4.64 percent lower than 12 months ago, while nationally, the same statistic is 6.28 percent lower. Non-seasonal data shows the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs is 4.81 percent lower than 12 months ago, while nationally, the same statistic is 6.07 percent lower.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, the magnitude of the changes in April through August overwhelms the other months. Since then, changes have been smaller, and both rising and falling, although January saw a large positing upswing.

    In the following chart of job levels from the same month one year ago, the recent monthly figures show the recovery slowing for both Kansas and the nation.

    In the following chart of unemployment rates, we see that the rate in Kansas is lower than the national rate, both before and after the pandemic.

    In the following chart of changes in the labor force for Kansas and the nation, the labor force has both grown and shrank since the pandemic.

    For industry groups, the following charts show the number of employees in various industries in January 2020 and January 2021.

    This chart uses the same data, but shows the percent change from January 2020. The Leisure and hospitality category is still the lowest, proportionally, followed by Mining and logging and Information. The only industry group to gain employees is Trade, Transportation, and Utilities.

    The report for this month from the Kansas Department of Labor is here. The report from BLS may be found here.

  • National employment, February 2021

    National employment, February 2021

    The unemployment changed little in February 2021, but job growth was stronger than any month since October.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, reported the closely-followed jobs number rose in February 2021 by 379,000 jobs from the prior month. The unemployment rate was “little changed at 6.2 percent.” Compared to the economy before the onset of the pandemic, BLS wrote: “Both the unemployment rate, at 6.2 percent, and the number of unemployed persons, at 10.0 million, changed little in February. Although both measures are much lower than their April 2020 highs, they remain well above their pre-pandemic levels in February 2020 (3.5 percent and 5.7 million, respectively).”

    The summary report from BLS may be found here.

    Of note: BLS revised recent figures, which it does as more data becomes available. After revision, the job loss in December is 79,000, but the January figure was revised up by 117,000.

    In its reporting, the Wall Street Journal wrote, “The U.S. economy is set up for a stronger recovery this spring after a February surge in hiring at restaurants and other hospitality businesses created the best monthly job growth since last fall. … In February, most of the job gains occurred in the leisure and hospitality sector, which includes restaurants, adding 355,000 jobs. There were smaller increases in temporary help services, manufacturing and healthcare. The gains reflect reduced business restrictions, more people receiving vaccines, a lower level of Covid-19 infections and a recent round of government aid to households and businesses, which boosted consumer spending early this year.” See February Hiring Sets Up Stronger Spring Recovery .

    Axios reported: “Good news for your Friday: the economy added a whopping 379,000 jobs in February — far outpacing expectations. Why it matters: Virus cases eased in recent weeks and states lifted restrictions, helping fuel a hiring surge. It’s proof of how much control the pandemic has over the job market. The clearest signal: The bounce-back was largely driven by hiring in the leisure and hospitality sectors, which came even in the dead of winter.” See Vaccine dreams juice jobs report .

    In an opinion piece in the Washington Post, Catherine Rampell wrote: “Yay for a strong jobs report, finally! And yet: No way, no how, should this news let Congress off the hook for more stimulus, whatever Republicans might say today.

    Employers added 379,000 jobs in February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. That was the fastest pace of hirings since October, and more gains than had been expected. Most of the hiring came in the struggling leisure and hospitality sector (primarily at restaurants and bars). The unemployment rate also ticked down, to 6.2 percent from 6.3 percent in January. This decline happened for the “right” reasons: that is, because more people got jobs, not because more people gave up looking for work and stopped being counted as unemployed. ” See Opinion: February’s jobs report doesn’t let Congress off the hook for more stimulus .

    My interactive visualization is updated with this data and is available here.

  • Kansas tax revenue, February 2021

    Kansas tax revenue, February 2021

    For February 2021, Kansas tax revenue was 1.7 percent greater than February 2020. Over the eight months of the current fiscal year, revenue is 14.2 percent higher than at the same point of the previous year.

    Tax reports from the State of Kansas for February 2021 show tax revenues falling from the previous month, but higher than the same month the prior year, despite the effects of the response to the pandemic. The fall from January is characteristic of the seasonal pattern.

    When reporting on Kansas tax collections, the comparison is usually made to the estimated collections. Those estimates were revised in April 2020 based on economic conditions affected by the response to the pandemic. To get a feel for the effects of the response to the pandemic, it is best to compare to the same month the prior year.

    (The estimated revenue figures are still important because the state budget is based on them. If the actual revenue is much below the estimated revenue, there may not be enough income to pay expenses.)

    For February 2021, individual income tax collections were $193.7 million, up by 13.0 percent from the prior February. Retail sales tax collections rose by 0.8 percent to $179.3 million. Total tax collections were $455.9 million, up 1.7 percent from the same month the prior year. A nearby table summarizes.

    For fiscal year 2021, which started on July 1, 2020, total tax collections are up by 14.2 percent over the same period of the previous fiscal year. A large reason for this is the change in tax deadlines from April to July, shifting much revenue from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2021. That hasn’t always been explained, as I show in In Kansas, explanations for tax collections may vary.

    As can be seen in a nearby table, tax revenue for fiscal year 2021 is $673.9 million greater than at the same time in the previous fiscal year. Of this, $527.0 million, or 78.2 percent, is due to the increase in individual income tax revenue.

    My report on tax revenue for April details some changes made by the estimating group.

    My interactive visualization of Kansas tax revenue has been updated with October data. Click here to use it.

    An example from the visualization illustrates the composition of Kansas tax revenue for the last year ending in November 2020. Individual income tax accounted for 50.5 percent of revenue, and retail sales tax 31.5 percent. Together, this is 82.0 percent. Add compensating use tax of 7.0 percent and corporate income tax of 5.6 percent, and that is nearly all — 94.6 percent — of Kansas tax revenue.

    The governor’s press release for this data is at February Total Tax Collections Outperform Estimate by $19.8 million.

  • GDP by metropolitan area and component

    GDP by metropolitan area and component

    An interactive visualization of gross domestic product by metropolitan area and industry.

    The Bureau of Economic Analysis, an agency of the United States Department of Commerce, gathers data about economic output, known as gross domestic product. The visualization I have created presents this data in tabular and graphic form. (more…)

  • National employment, January 2021

    National employment, January 2021

    The unemployment rate fell in January 2021, but job growth was weak, and the December value was revised.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, reported the closely-followed jobs number rose in January 2021 by 49,000 jobs from the prior month. The unemployment rate fell from 6.7 percent to 6.4 percent. BLS notes that the total nonfarm employment level is “below its February 2020 level by 9.9 million, or 6.5 percent.”

    The summary report from BLS may be found here.

    Of note: BLS revised recent figures, which it does as more data becomes available. After the revision, the job loss in December is 227,000 instead of the previously reported 140,000

    In its reporting, the Wall Street Journal wrote, “The unemployment rate decline in January was driven by two factors. More people dropped out of the labor force—meaning they weren’t actively looking for a job and may have grown frustrated with their employment prospects. Also, the number of people reporting themselves as employed increased, consistent with a generally upward trend in hiring since last spring.”

    It added: The broader economic recovery stalled significantly this winter. Unemployment claims, a proxy for layoffs, have remained above pre-pandemic levels. Consumers cut back on spending, as some were wary of leaving their homes as virus cases surged. Others wanted to shop and dine out, but had limited options. … Economists see the winter lull as temporary. They expect growth to pick up later this year as more people get vaccinated and business restrictions further ease. Many economists also say the economy could benefit from further government stimulus.” See U.S. Employers Added 49,000 Jobs in January, Growth returned to the labor market after one-month dip; unemployment rate fell to 6.3%.

    Axios reported: “Driving the news: The economy ended the Trump years with an unemployment rate of 6.3%. That’s a lot lower than the pandemic-induced high point of 14.8% in April, but still well above the 4.7% unemployment that Barack Obama left behind. Why it matters: Former President Trump inherited a flourishing labor market. He’s handing President Biden one that has a ways to go before recovering from an unprecedented shock. … By the numbers: When Trump took office, the economy had 145.6 million jobs. The legacy he leaves Biden, as measured during the week of Jan. 11: 3 million fewer jobs, and a labor force of 160 million people that’s 4.5 million people smaller than it was four years ago.” See The Trump-COVID jobs legacy.

    In an opinion piece in the Washington Post, Catherine Rampell wrote: “Well, at least we didn’t lose jobs last month, as was the case in December. But job growth in January — at an anemic 49,000 net payroll jobs — was still much slower than it was pre-pandemic. Which doesn’t do much to help us recover the 22 million jobs lost in early spring. (more…)

  • Kansas unemployment claims trending lower

    Kansas unemployment claims trending lower

    A visualization of unemployment insurance claims by state, adjusted for population, shows Kansas as having a high number of claims, but trending lower. (more…)

  • Wichita jobs and employment, December 2020

    Wichita jobs and employment, December 2020

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in December 2020, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down when compared to the same month one year ago. The recent trend, however, is mixed. (more…)

  • Kansas tax revenue, January 2021

    Kansas tax revenue, January 2021

    For January 2021, total Kansas tax revenue was 9.7 percent greater than January 2020. Over the seven months of the current fiscal year, tax revenue is 15.5 percent higher than at the same point of the previous fiscal year. (more…)