In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: Are Kansas school leaders being honest with schoolchildren and parents regarding Kansas school test scores? Then: Walter Williams on greed. Finally: Do we have too many laws? A look at the problem of overcriminalization. Episode 24, broadcast December 29, 2013. View below, or click here to view at YouTube.
Critics of Kansas Governor Sam Brownback and his economic growth plans say Kansas hasn’t been creating jobs. A look at the statistics tells us that Kansas has produced substandard performance in job growth for a long time.
The nearby chart (click for a larger version) shows the compound annual rate of growth of jobs in the states, with Kansas highlighted in blue.
From 1992 to 2012, Kansas created jobs at the rate of 1.022 percent per year, compounded. Arkansas managed 1.096 percent over the same period. That seems like a small difference, just 0.074 percentage points. But over time, compounding adds up, so to speak. If both states started with one million jobs and continued growing at these rates, in ten years Arkansas would have 8,136 more jobs than Kansas. In 20 years, the difference would be 18,080 jobs. That’s about as many people as work in each of Finney and Ford Counties, home to Dodge City and Garden City, respectively.
Or, consider Texas, the state Kansas progressives love to hate. It’s has created jobs at the rate of 2.001 percent. If both states started with one million jobs and grew at these rates, in ten years Texas would have 112,083 more jobs than Kansas would have. In 20 years the difference would be 260,722 jobs. That’s almost as many people as work in the Wichita metropolitan area.
Earlier this week we saw that candidates for Kansas governor have released statements on recent job figures in Kansas. The news releases from Sam Brownback and Paul Davis appear to contain conflicting views of Kansas employment.
But we saw that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has two monthly surveys that measure employment levels and trends. There’s the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the household survey, and there is also the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, also known as the payroll or establishment survey. BLS explains: “These estimates differ because the surveys have distinct definitions of employment and distinct survey and estimation methods.”
Both the Davis and Brownback campaign appear to cite the data correctly. So which is the better measure to use? Which gives the best indication of the performance of the Kansas economy in creating jobs?
Here’s something to consider. On the national level, a widely-watched number each month is the count of new jobs created. This number, which is universally considered to be important, comes from the CES survey. That’s the number that shows quite a bit of job growth in Kansas. But in order to belittle the Brownback effort, the Davis campaign cites the other data series.
So let’s be fair. The next time Davis and Democrats praise good job creation figures at the national level as evidence of the goodness of Barack Obama, let’s ask them to give the same credit to Sam Brownback.
Candidates for Kansas governor last week released statements on recent job figures in Kansas. The releases from Sam Brownback and Paul Davis appear to contain conflicting views of Kansas employment.
Brownback released a statement containing this, in part: “In the past year, we have seen more than 20,000 new jobs in Kansas and a total of 45,600 new jobs created from January 2011 through October 2013.” (Click here for the full statement.)
Davis released a statement containing this, in part: “From January 2011 – Oct 2013: Period during which Brownback cites 46,500 new jobs … Employed: +3,634 (not 46,500, which is what was claimed by Brownback)” (Click here for the full statement.)
So which campaign is correct? The answer is not easy to provide. That’s because there are two series of employment data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The two series don’t measure exactly the same thing, and each campaign has chosen to use the series that benefits their campaign. Nearby is an example of just how different the two series can appear.
A document from BLS titled Employment from the BLS household and payroll surveys: summary of recent trends explains in brief: “The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has two monthly surveys that measure employment levels and trends: the Current Population Survey (CPS), also known as the household survey, and the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, also known as the payroll or establishment survey. … These estimates differ because the surveys have distinct definitions of employment and distinct survey and estimation methods.”
Another BLS document explains in detail the differences between the CPS and CES data. For example: CES: “Designed to measure employment, hours, and earnings with significant industrial and geographic detail” CPS: “Designed to measure employment and unemployment with significant demographic detail.”
I’ve prepared a table showing the claims made primarily by the Davis campaign (since it provided the most detail) and gathered data from both the CES and CPS series. I’ve also showed the seasonally adjusted data compared to the raw data when available. Sometimes the numbers match exactly with the claims made by the campaigns, and sometimes the numbers are a little different. Click here for the full table.
I’ve also created an interactive visualization of the CPS and CES data for Kansas. Click here to open it in a new window.
Each campaign uses the data that best makes its case. Generally speaking, the CES data shows larger employment gains.
For about 50 years we’ve been fighting a war on poverty. Initially, the poverty rate declined. But over the last four decades, the poverty rate has gone up and down, but is largely unchanged over this period. Spending on welfare programs, however, has continually risen, and rapidly in the past few years. The accompanying chart shows the poverty rate and welfare spending. The spending is per person in the U.S., adjusted for inflation, and doesn’t include spending on health care.
Here’s an insight from the book Milton Friedman wrote with his wife Rose: Free to Choose: A Personal Statement. It explains why government spending is wasteful, how it leads to corruption, how it often does not benefit the people it was intended, and how the pressure for more spending is always present. For more on this, see Friedman: The fallacy of the welfare state.
In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: Wichita city leaders are preparing to ask Wichita voters to approve a sales tax increase. What would this money be used for? Are there alternatives, such as private sector integration, that the city could consider? Then: What is the role of the Wichita Metro Chamber of Commerce? Is it promoting capitalism, or something else? Finally, David Hart, who is Director of the Online Library of Liberty Project at the Liberty Fund, explains some of the lessons of Frederic Bastiat, including the broken window fallacy. Episode 23, broadcast December 8, 2013. View below, or click here to view at YouTube.
Thursday’s lecture in Wichita by economist Walter Williams featured a section covering how greed, or what some call enlightened self-interest, is the best way to produce good acts.
When government is used in an attempt to do good, it requires either elimination or attenuation of private property and market forces, Williams told the audience. But it is private property and the desire by people for more that motivates people to do the difficult and laborious things that benefit their fellow man. It all happens without government. In fact, government involvement in the market reduces the motivation of people to acquire, protect, and improve private property.
Here’s a transcript of Williams explaining how this works:
But do-gooders fail to realize that most good done in the world is not done in the name of good.
If you were to ask me “Williams, what’s that human motivation that gets wonderful things done? What’s the human motivation that you like?” I tell them greed. I love greed.
I’m not talking about ripping off people, fraud, and misrepresentation. I’m talking about people trying to get as much as they can for themselves. Now consider the following, because a lot of people don’t understand greed.
Last winter we had Texas cattle ranchers getting up in the dead of winter, running down stray cattle and trying to feed them, making a huge personal sacrifice to make sure New Yorkers had beef on their shelves.
This summer we had Idaho potato farmers getting up in the morning, doing back-breaking work, sun beating down on them, bugs biting them, making this personal sacrifice so that New Yorkers would also have potatoes.
Now, why do you think they’re doing that? Do you think they’re doing that because they love New Yorkers? They may hate New Yorkers — I’m not that wild about New Yorkers myself — but they make sure beef and potatoes get to New York every single day of the week.
Why? Because they love themselves. They’re trying to get more for themselves. And this is what Adam Smith was talking about in The Wealth of Nations: That the public good is served best by the private interest. That is, by people trying to get more for themselves. And in the free market, in order to get more for yourself, you have to find ways to please your fellow man, to make your fellow man happy.
How much beef and potatoes do you think New Yorkers would have if it all depended on human love and kindness? I’d be worried about New Yorkers.
Let me give you another example. Some people tell me “Well Williams, instead of saying greed, you’re trying to win friends and influence people, why don’t you say enlightened self-interest?” Well, that’s okay, but I like greed instead.
Let me give you another example of the virtue of self interest and private property. I have often said that I don’t care much about future generations. Some people think that’s awful. People have sometimes asked “Williams, why don’t you care about future generations?” And I ask “What have future generations ever done for me?”
I mean, some kid being born in 2050, what has he done for me? And if he has not done anything for me, how then am I obliged to do anything for him? Where is the quid pro quo?
But however, if you watch my actual behavior, my behavior would belie that sentiment.
I have a very nice house and property in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania. Several years ago I took $400 that I could have used to buy two bottles of Chateau d’Yquem Sauterne wine and selfishly enjoyed it all by myself, but instead I planted some trees on my property.
Now when those trees reach full maturity, I’ll be dead. There will be some 2050 kid swinging in my trees. Mrs. Williams, who is now departed, made extensive improvements to our house — built a big sunroom — with my money of course. That sunroom is going to outlast both of us, and there’s going to be some 2050 kid tracking mud in my sunroom.
If you ask the question “why did I make those sacrifices of current consumption to produce something that’s going to benefit somebody in 2050,” the answer’s very easy: The nicer my house is, the longer it will provide housing services, and the higher the price I get when I go to sell it.
That is, by pursing my own narrow selfish interest, I can’t help but make a house available for future generations, whether I mean to or not.
Now, would I have the same incentives if the government owned my house? Would I have the same incentives if there were a 75 percent transfer tax when I went to sell my house? Whatever weakens my private property rights interest in that house, weakens my incentive to do the socially responsible thing, namely, conserve on the scare resources of our society.
Let me give you one other example. … I was listening to NPR, a number of years ago, and people were picketing the UN because they were concerned about the extinction of the giraffe, the gorilla, and the lion. So I wrote down a list of animals that people were in a tizzy over the possibility of their becoming extinct.
Then I wrote down another list of animals, very valuable to us, but people are not worried about them. I said “How come people are not marching for the chicken? Why are people not forming save the pig clubs?”
What’s the difference between these two lists of animals? The essential difference is that with this list of animals — cows, chickens, and pigs — they belong to somebody. Somebody’s personal private interest is at stake. But this other list of animals — they don’t belong to anybody. Nobody’s personal private wealth is at stake. If you’re concerned about the extinction of various animals, I would recommend trying to privatize them.
In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.
— Frederic Bastiat
To keep airfares low at the Wichita Airport, the Wichita City Council in partnership with Sedgwick County and the State of Kansas pays a discount air carrier to operate in Wichita. While the program almost certainly has the intended effect on airfares, there is another effect: The trend of flights and seats available in Wichita is declining, and and at a rate faster than for the nation as a whole.