Voice For Liberty

Kansas fourth district poll shows tightening race with Pompeo in lead

Bob Weeks

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KWCH Television in Wichita and SurveyUSA have released a poll of candidates seeking the Republican Party nomination for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas.

The survey shows support for Wichita businessman Jim Anderson and Kansas Senator Jean Schodorf on the rise, while the numbers for Wichita businessman Wink Hartman continue to decline. The support for Wichita businessman Mike Pompeo also fell slightly, well within the poll’s level of sampling error.

The numbers have Pompeo leading with 31 percent, Schodorf with 24 percent, Hartman with 23 percent, Anderson with 13 percent, and Latham engineer Paij Rutschman at two percent.

Undecided voters are at six percent. The poll was conducted July 26th through 28th. The margin of sampling error is 3.5 percent.

Interestingly, this poll has Schodorf at the same level of support as shown in her own internal poll released earlier this week. Her poll, however, showed her in first place with 24 percent support, with Pompeo in second place at 21 percent. That difference is within the poll’s sampling error.

The Schodorf poll had 32 percent of voters as undecided, which is — and has been the case with all of Schodorf’s surveys — several times higher than the six percent undecided measured by SurveyUSA.

State of the State KS is working on a poll that should be released today or tomorrow. This will provide another independent measure of voter sentiment as election day — August 3rd — draws near.

Some voters have already voted. At yesterday’s meeting of the Sedgwick County Commission, Election Commissioner Bill Gale said that about 13,000 mail ballots have been sent to voters, with about half being returned already.

In the 2008 primary election, 36,724 ballots were cast in Sedgwick County. With 6,500 ballots already returned, this means that at least 17 percent of voters (assuming the same turnout as in 2008) have already voted.

For the fourth Kansas Congressional district, about 71 percent of the population is in Sedgwick County.

On the Democratic Party side of this race, it appears that the television advertisements appearing for Raj Goyle are working. He trailed in the last poll two weeks ago, but now leads opponent Robert Tillman 63 percent to 19 percent, with 18 percent undecided. Two weeks ago Tillman led Goyle 40 percent to 36 percent.

Kansas fourth Congressional district poll resultsKansas fourth Congressional district poll results

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Comments

4 responses to “Kansas fourth district poll shows tightening race with Pompeo in lead”

  1. Val in Valhala

    TV ads make a dramatic difference.

  2. Wichitator

    When this race for KS-4 is over and the general election candidates selected there will be a measurement of how much $ was spent for every vote received. Wink’s cost for every vote he gets will be huge.

    On the other side, a candidate will get the most votes for the smallest expenditure per vote. This person will have lost that election, but will have spent less per vote. That will become a pyrrhic victory, but I suspect that the winner in the KS-4 GOP primary will be Jim Anderson. Anderson is a strong conservative who has run a dramatically underfunded campaign.

    There are too many people disgusted with Wink and the relentlessly nasty tv ads and his campaign is over, he just doesn’t know it yet. In this internet age, Wink and Mike Pompeo have yet to learn that there are better ways to reach voters than non stop 30 second tv ads.

    Hartman will have made his tv consultant who is taking a large percentage of every ad Wink buys, rich by at least a six figure sum. That is one other very safe prediction. It will be interesting to see how long it takes for Wink to retreat back to Palm Beach and the only one who will be really sorry to see him go will be Raj Cumar Goyle–who will lose the perfect GOP pinata to run against in November.

  3. sue c.

    I have to disagree with the previous analysis that Jim Anderson will be the victor in Tuesday’s Primary. The latest survey shows Schodorf and Pompeo are basically tied for the win, with Anderson in 4th, and non-viable according to the analysis.

    A vote for Anderson is a “throw away” vote at this point. As sad as that may seem for his supporters.

    The RINO-liberal Schodorf may win this, and that will be a dream come true for Raj Goyle.

    http://stateofthestateks.com/2010/07/30/state-of-the-state-ks-poll-schodorf-and-pompeo-take-lead-in-campaign-for-congress-in-fourth-district/

  4. sue c.

    Sorry, Bob, my first paragraph was a bit incomplete. Typing too fast, I guess.

    In referring to the “analysis” showing Anderson to be non-viable, I was referring to the State of the State article that I referenced in my link.

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