Analysis of household expenditure data shows that a proposed sales tax in Wichita affects low income families in greatest proportion, confirming the regressive nature of sales taxes.
One of the criticisms of a sales tax is that it is regressive. That is, it affects low-income families in greatest proportion. This is an important consideration to explore, because in November Wichita voters will decide whether to create a new city sales tax of one cent per dollar. If enacted, the sales tax in Wichita would rise from 7.15 percent to 8.15 percent.
It’s an important issue because to hear some people talk, it seems as though they are saying the proposed tax is “one penny.” Anyone can afford that, they say. But the tax is an extra penny on each dollar spent, meaning that the cost of, say, fifty dollars of food at the grocery store increases by fifty cents, not one penny.
Further, we hear the sales tax spoken of as being a one percent increase. That’s true, if we mean a one percent increase in the cost of most things we buy. And one percent, after all, is just one percent. Not a big deal, people say. But considering the sales tax we pay, a relevant calculation is this: (8.15 – 7.15) / 7.15 = 14 percent. Which is to say, the amount of sales tax we pay will rise by 14 percent.
To explore the effect of the proposed sales tax on families of different incomes, I gathered data from the U.S. Census Bureau, specifically table 1101, which is “Quintiles of income before taxes: Annual expenditure means, shares, standard errors, and coefficient of variation, Consumer Expenditure Survey, 2012, (Selected Values).” This table divides families into five quintiles. It gives annual expenditures for each quintile in various categories. For each category, I judged whether it is subject to sales tax. For example, for housing, I indicated it is not subject to sales tax. This is not totally accurate, as some of the spending in this category may be for taxable items like maintenance and repair supplies. Food is subject to sales tax in Kansas, although low-income families may apply for a rebate of the tax. Despite these shortcomings, I feel this data gives us an approximation of the effect of the sales tax. (Click on the table to view a larger version, or see below for how to obtain the data.)
As you might imagine, as income rises, so does total taxable expenditures. Of interest, the percent of expenditures that are taxable is relatively constant across income levels.
Click for larger.An important finding is the bottom line of the table, which shows the increase in cost due to the proposed sales tax as percent of income after taxes. This calculates the relative impact of the proposed sales tax increase as a percent of income. It is here that we expect to see the regressive nature of a sales tax appear. For all consumers, the increase in cost is 0.35 percent. For the lowest class of income, the increase in cost is 0.97 percent of income. It falls to 0.26 percent for the highest income class.
This means that the lowest income class of families experience an increase nearly four times the magnitude as do the highest income families, as a percentage of after-tax income. This is the regressive nature of sales taxes illustrated in numbers, and is something that Wichita policy makers and voters should consider.
I’ve made the data available as a Google Docs spreadsheet. Click here for access.
In this episode of WichitaLiberty.TV: We’ll talk about the proposed Wichita sales tax, including who pays it, and who gets special exemptions from paying it. Then, can we believe the promises the city makes about accountability and transparency? Finally, has the chosen solution for a future water supply proven itself as viable, and why are we asking low-income households to pay more sales tax on groceries for drought protection? View below, or click here to view at YouTube. Episode 63, broadcast October 26, 2014.
To pay for a new water supply, Wichita gives voters two choices and portrays one as exceptionally unwise. In creating this either-or fallacy, the city is effectively campaigning for the sales tax.
In November Wichita voters will decide whether to create a sales tax of one cent per dollar. The largest intended purpose of the funds is to create a new water supply.
Set aside for a moment the question whether Wichita needs a new water source. Set aside the question of whether ASR is the best way to provide a new water source. What’s left is how to pay for it.
City of Wichita information on proposed sales taxTo pay for a new water source, the city gives us two choices: Either (a) raise funds through the sales tax, or (b) borrow funds that Wichitans will pay back on their water bills, along with a pile of interest.
As you can see in the nearby chart prepared by the city, the costs are either $250 million (sales tax) or $471 million (borrow and pay interest). The preference of the city is evident: Sales tax. The “Yes Wichita ” group agrees.
Here’s what is happening. City hall gives us two choices. It’s either (a) do what we want (sales tax), or (b) we’ll do something that’s really bad (borrow and pay interest). Wichita voters shouldn’t settle for this array of choices.
Let me emphasize that. The city’s informational material says if voters don’t pass the sales tax, the city will do something unwise. But the city did that very same bad thing to pay for the current ASR project, that is, borrow money and pay interest. But now the city says pass the sales tax or we will do something bad to you. Pass the sales tax or the city will issue long-term debt and you will pay a lot of interest.
Pass the sales tax, or we will do again what we did to pay for the current ASR project. And that would be bad for you and the city.
Wichita Outstanding Gross General Obligation Debt per CapitaAre there other alternatives for raising $250 million for a new water source (assuming it is actually needed)? Of course there are. The best way would be to raise water bills by $250 million over five years. In this way, water users pay for the new water supply, and we avoid the long-term debt that city council members and “Yes Wichita” seem determined to avoid.
Water bills would have to rise by quite a bit in order to raise $250 million over five years. The city could decide to raise rates by different amounts for different classes of water users. The city could adjust its tiered residential rate structure to be more in line with the average of other large cities. (See Wichita water rates seen as not encouraging conservation.) But the total cost of the higher water bills would be exactly the same as the cost of the sales tax: $250 million.
It’s important to have water users pay for a new water supply. The benefit is that water users will become acutely aware of the costs of a new water supply. That awareness is difficult to achieve. Many citizens are surprised to learn that the city has spent $247 million over the past decade on a water project, the ASR program. Almost all of that was paid for with long-term debt, the same debt that the city now says is bad.
Paying for a new water supply through water bills would let commercial and industrial users participate in paying the cost of the project. These water users usually don’t pay a lot of sales tax. A restaurant, for example, does not pay sales tax on the food ingredients it purchases. An aircraft manufacturer does not pay sales tax on the raw materials and component parts it buys. But these companies do have a water bill. Yet, the city recommends that low income households pay more sales tax on their groceries. The city says this is the best way to pay for a new water supply to protect our lawns and golf courses during a drought.
In this script from the next episode of WichitaLiberty.TV, I report my concerns about rushing a decision to expand a water production system that has not yet proven itself.
For the proposed Wichita sales tax, the largest share will go towards a new water supply. 63 percent of the tax revenue — that’s $250 million over five years — will go towards what the city has decided will satisfy our water needs. This is expansion of the Aquifer Storage and Recovery program, or ASR.
People have told me that I should take a look at the production of the ASR system. Many people have told me that. So I took a look. Now, I realize that I am not a geologist. I am not a civil engineer with experience in public utilities like water systems. But what I found is more than a little alarming.
As a result of my research, I’m concerned that we don’t have a track record of success for the ASR program, but we’re thinking about putting all our eggs in that basket. Here is some history. ASR is a system north of Wichita. It draws water from the Little Arkansas River, treats it, and injects it into the Equus Beds aquifer. That’s the recharge process. That water is then available for use in the future. (Wichita already gets 40 percent of its water from the Equus beds.) There was ASR Phase 1, and now there is Phase 2. Cost so far is $247 million.
In April, Wichita Public Works Director Alan King told the city council that based on experience, we now believe we will get half the production from ASR as we originally thought. By production, we mean the amount of water that is treated and injected into the aquifer. So I did the research and I found that the ASR program has not come close to meeting this goal. This is the goal that was cut in half from the original goal.
I understand that ASR phase 2 came online during a drought. I understand that there was a learning curve. But since July 2013 — remember that’s when it started raining so much it flooded — ASR has not been performing anywhere near expectations.
Gallons of Water Recharged Through Recharge Basins and Wells during Wichita ASR phase 2, cumulative from July 2013. Click for larger version.In this chart, I start the horizontal axis with July 2013. The red line on top is what production was originally planned to be. Production will not necessarily be smooth, as production happens only on days when there is sufficient water in the river. But over time, this should be the trend.
The blue line is the expectations for production after being revised downwards.
In purple is actual production. Considering the 12 month stretch starting with July 2013, ASR produced 431 million gallons of recharged water. That is 23 percent of expectations, even after expectations were cut in half.
When I presented this information to the Wichita City Council this week, Alan King, the public works director, said “The information Mr. Weeks presented is accurate.” But he said my conclusions are not correct.
King told the council that during the timeframe of this chart, we weren’t looking to run the ASR system at maximum production levels. We were operating the facility in the most efficient manner possible. We were testing the individual components. We are still in a commissioning phase.
So based on this — we are still in a commissioning phase, we have not been running at maximum production levels — I believe we do not have enough experience to conclude that ASR is working. Couldn’t we wait until the ASR project is working at even half its design goal before making a decision to proceed with its expansion? This is too big a decision to make based on the scant evidence we have. Especially when we are asking low income and fixed income households to pay more sales tax on groceries to fund this project. Especially when Cheney Reservoir is full and there is no immediate crisis.
Additional cost of proposed Wichita sales tax as percent of after-tax income, by income quintile. Click for larger version.I did research on how an increase in sales tax affects households of different levels of income. Later the Wichita Eagle produced similar results. I showed that as a percentage of after-tax income, the proposed sales tax increase is four times as costly for low-income households as it is for high-income households. Remember, regarding a new water supply, we’re not worried about running out of drinking water, or even running out of water for industry and commercial users. We’re talking about restricting the watering of golf courses and lawns during an extended drought. We’re talking about not washing cars during a drought. Stripped to its essence, the city is asking low-income households to pay more sales tax on food so that lawns in wealthy neighborhoods may remain green at reasonable cost during a drought.
Here’s something else that troubles me regarding the water portion of the proposed sales tax. In the city’s informational material — the material that is meant to educate us on the issues — it’s said that if the sales tax does not pass, the city will use long-term debt to pay for ASR expansion, and that will cost an extra $221 million in interest expense. That course of action — using debt to pay for ASR expansion — is presented as a bad choice.
I want to remind you that the city borrowed over $200 million in long-term debt to pay for the present ASR system. That’s almost as much as the cost of the proposed ASR expansion.
City of Wichita information on proposed sales taxLet me emphasize that. The city’s informational material says if voters don’t pass the sales tax, the city will do something unwise. But the city did that very same bad thing to pay for the current ASR project, that is, borrow money and pay interest. But now the city says pass the sales tax or we will do something bad to you. Pass the sales tax or the city will issue long-term debt and you will pay a lot of interest. Pass the sales tax, or we will do again what we did to pay for the current ASR project. And that would be bad for you and the city.
These are the choices the city gives voters. But others alternatives are available. If the city is concerned about the cost of debt financing, why not raise the money for ASR through a period of higher water bills for five years? This has the obvious benefit of having the people who actually use water pay for it. The cost of ASR expansion could be a separate line item on water bills so that we are acutely aware of how much this system costs. It’s important that we be aware of these costs. When paid through a sales tax, it’s difficult to track the money and know the total cost of the system to you. That’s something the city and the “Yes Wichita” group counts on. In fact, they say the sales tax is just one cent. Just one penny for every dollar you spend. You won’t even notice its impact.
Paying for a new water supply through water bills would let commercial and industrial users participate in paying the cost of the project. These water users generally don’t pay a lot of sales tax. A restaurant, for example, does not pay sales tax on the food ingredients it purchases. An aircraft manufacturer does not pay sales tax on the raw materials and component parts it buys. But these companies do have a water bill. Yet, the city recommends that low income households pay more sales tax on their groceries. The city says this is the best way to pay for a new water supply to protect our lawns and golf courses during a drought.
Here’s a thought. Sedgwick County Government is in a beneficial position regarding the water supply issue. The city is too wrapped up, too invested in advancing the ASR project. There are some big egos and political careers involved. There is an engineering firm that sees a big contract in its future.
Since county government is not in the business of providing water, it does not have these distractions and distortions. I think this places the county in the position of a referee, as an unbiased observer. The county is a governmental body that sincerely wants a secure water future for its largest city and for many of the smaller cities and residents that get their water from the Wichita system. Remember, many cities like Derby rely on the Wichita water system for their water. Collecting funds through water bills lets these customers help pay for the cost of a new water supply.
If city voters decide against the sales tax, which I hope is the outcome of the election, then the county commission could take the lead. It could commission a study of water issues. Since the county is not in the business of providing water, the study could be free of the biases and ambitions that infect whatever Wichita does. It could be conducted by an engineering firm that is not advocating for its own interests, as I fear is happening with Wichita.
I realize this would cost money and take time. But the city is on the verge of rushing into what I fear will be a costly mistake. Remember, Cheney Lake is full. There is no immediate water crisis. We do not have to rush to make a decision about expanding a system that has not yet entered full production, a system that is still in the commissioning stage. Wichita voters should not accept the false choices our city government is giving us.
A Wichita company CEO applied for a sales tax exemption. Now as chair of the Wichita Metro Chamber of Commerce, he wants you to pay more sales tax, even on the food you buy in grocery stores.
High Touch Technologies in downtown Wichita.When High Touch Technologies wanted to purchase and improve the building that houses its headquarters in downtown Wichita, the company asked for and received property tax relief and an exemption from paying sales taxes.
So far this story is not unusual. Many companies receive this type of tax relief. Some get it year after year, to the tune of some $658 million in the case of Boeing.
High Touch Technologies campaigns for higher sales taxes, even though it received a sales tax exemption.But the case of High Touch Technologies is of more than usual interest. At the time of the request in November 2013 the company’s CEO, Wayne Chambers, had just been selected as chair of the Wichita Metro Chamber of Commerce. The Chamber, along with its subsidiary Greater Wichita Economic Development Coalition, are the main agencies in charge of economic development for the Wichita area. Under Chambers’ leadership, these organizations recommended that the city council authorize a vote on raising the Wichita sales tax for the purposes of economic development. The council did that, and in November Wichita voters will decide whether to create a city sales tax of one cent per dollar. Twenty percent of the proceeds are earmarked for job creation.
To summarize: A Wichita company CEO applied for a sales tax exemption. Now he wants you to pay more sales tax, even on the food you buy in grocery stores.
Kansas has nearly the highest statewide sales tax rate for groceries. Cities and counties often add even more tax on food.
Additional cost of proposed Wichita sales tax as percent of after-tax income, by income quintile. Click for larger version.Only 14 states apply sales tax to food purchased at grocery stores for home consumption. This is generally in recognition that sales taxes are highly regressive. My research shows that the lowest income class of families experience a cost nearly four times the magnitude as do the highest income families, as a percentage of after-tax income. See Wichita sales tax hike would hit low income families hardest.
When we look at statewide sales tax rates applied to food, we see that Mississippi has the highest sales tax rate for food at 7.00 percent. Kansas is next at 6.15 percent, then Idaho at 6.00 percent.
Cities and counties often have additional sales taxes. Sedgwick County adds one percent for a total sales tax rate of 7.15 percent. If the proposed Wichita sales tax succeeds, the sales tax in Wichita, including on groceries, will be 8.15 percent.
It could be that some cities in other states have combined sales tax rates higher than what Wichita currently has, and what Wichita will have if the proposed sales tax passes. As an example, Oklahoma has a statewide sales tax of 4.5 percent that applies to groceries. With city and county taxes added, the rate in Oklahoma City is 8.375 percent. If the proposed sales tax passes, Wichita would be right behind at 8.15 percent.
Of note, those in Kansas have the possibility of receiving a food sales tax credit of $125. But this is something that must be applied for, and qualifying conditions must be met. Also, the credit is nonrefundable, meaning that applicants must have income tax liability of at least $125 to receive the full credit.
The following table shows the sales tax rate for states that apply sales tax to food. All other states have either no sales tax, or no sales tax on groceries. View below, or click here to open in a new window.
As Wichita voters consider spending $250 million expanding a water project, we should look at the project’s history. So far, the ASR program has not performed near expectations, even after revising goals downward.
In November Wichita voters will consider approval of a one cent per dollar sales tax. Of the $400 expected to be collected over five years, $250 million is earmarked for a new water source. The city has decided that the new water supply will be implemented through expansion of the Aquifer Storage and Recovery program or ASR. This is a program whereby water is taken from the Little Arkansas River, treated, and injected in the Equus Beds aquifer. That water is then available in the future as is other Equus Beds water.
The city believes that ASR is a proven technology that will provide water and drought protection for many years and recommends that voters approve $250 million for its expansion, although there is possibility that the cost may be $200 million.
According to city documents, the original capacity of the ASR phase II project to process water and pump it into the ground (the “recharge” process) was given as “Expected volume: 30 MGD for 120 days.” That translates to 3,600,000,000 (3.6 billion or 3,600 million) gallons per year. ASR phase II was completed in 2011.
At a city council workshop in April 2014, Director of Public Works and Utilities Alan King briefed the council on the history of ASR, mentioning the original belief that ASR would recharge 11,000 acre feet of water per year. But he gave a new estimate for production, telling the council that “What we’re finding is, we’re thinking we’re going to actually get 5,800 acre feet. Somewhere close to half of the original estimates.” The new estimate translates to 1,889,935,800 (1.9 billion or 1,900 million) gallons per year.
Based on experience, the city has produced a revised estimate of ASR production capability. What has been the actual experience of ASR? The U.S. Geological Survey has ASR figures available here. I’ve gathered the data and performed an analysis.
Annual production
In 2013 ASR recharged 366 million gallons, or 19 percent of the newly revised estimate of production capacity. In 2014 through September, ASR recharged 275 million gallons, or 14 percent of capacity. Extrapolating this nine months of production to a full year results in 367 million gallons produced for 2014, or 19 percent of capacity, the same value as in 2013. This may or may not be valid, but it gives an idea of how 2014 is proceeding.
So for the two most recent years, the ASR system has not operated near its designed capacity, even after revising that capacity downwards by half.
To place these production figures in context, the city uses 56 million gallons per day, on average. So the annual production of the ASR project is about 6.5 days of water usage.
Monthly production
Gallons of Water Recharged Through Recharge Basins and Wells during Wichita ASR phase 1 and phase 2, monthly. Click for larger version.The ASR system is able to draw water from the river only when the flow is above a certain level, which is not every day of the year. So we may want to take a look at how the ASR system performs for shorter periods of time. Monthly data is available.
For a 30-day month, if the plant could be run at full design capacity each day, the production would be 900,000,000 (900 million) gallons. The best month ever for actual production was 192 million gallons, with the second best at 120 million gallons.
If we take the 12 best months for production, including before ASR Phase II started operations, the amount of water recharged is 924 million gallons. That’s 49 percent of the revised expected annual production of 1.9 billion gallons.
The cumulative deficit
Gallons of Water Recharged Through Recharge Basins and Wells during Wichita ASR phase 2, cumulative. Click for larger version.I’ve produced a chart of the cumulative production of the Wichita ASR project compared with the original projections and the lower revised projections. The lines for projections rise smoothly, although it is expected that actual production is not smooth. The second phase of ASR was completed sometime in 2011, but no water was produced and recharged that year. So I started this chart with January 2012. Data is from U.S. Geological Survey.
Gallons of Water Recharged Through Recharge Basins and Wells during Wichita ASR phase 2, cumulative from July 2013. Click for larger version.Some have said that since 2013 was a drought year, it isn’t fair to evaluate the production of ASR during a drought. So to present ASR in the best possible light, I’ve prepared a chart starting in July 2013. That was when it started raining so much we had floods, and data from USGS shows that the flow in the Little Arkansas River was much greater. Still, the ASR project is not keeping up with projections, even after goals were lowered.
The city and the “Yes Wichita” campaign say the ASR project is proven and is working. The available data, however, does not support this claim.
Here is the cumulative production of the Wichita ASR project compared with the original projections and the lower revised projections. The second phase of ASR came online sometime in 2011, but no water was recharged that year. So I started this chart with January 2012. Data is from U.S. Geological Survey. (Click chart for larger version.)
The city and the “Yes Wichita” campaign say the ASR project is proven and is working. Do you agree?
The following was written by local geologist Karma Mason, who also serves on the State Water Board. What are the implications of moving forward with a rushed, poor plan? Mason explains what Wichita voters should consider as they vote in the proposed one cent per dollar sales tax. $250 million of the projected $400 million five-year sales tax is earmarked for a new water supply.
Over the past year, the city of Wichita has evaluated potential new water supply options. Recently, the city revealed enhancement of the aquifer storage and recovery project (ASR) as the preferred new supply. Although ASR enhancement may ultimately prove a viable option, there are still significant uncertainties.
First, a current state-level requirement prohibits the city from using any ASR-stored water should the Equus Beds become stressed during a drought.
Second, we have already spent more than $200 million on the ASR, and it has yet to significantly affect the amount of water stored in the Equus Beds.
Third, in a drought scenario (i.e., dust bowl), the Equus Beds will be over-utilized, resulting in accelerating the migration of the chloride plume to city supply wells. This likely will result in additional costs, beyond the proposed $250 million, to treat the chloride-containing water.
Fourth, there have been recent discussions at the state level about working with irrigators to lease their water rights to the city in a drought scenario, or even establishing a water bank for the area. These options could result in providing needed water in a dust bowl scenario at a much-reduced cost.
Finally, city representatives state that when using existing state guidelines for drought planning, Wichita already has adequate water for another 20-plus years.
Our community has an opportunity to work together to solve its long-term water needs. Fortunately, our current supply is adequate to allow more time for full evaluation of our options.
