Voice For Liberty

Tag: Mike Pompeo

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Friday October 15, 2010

    Moran at Wichita Pachyderm today. Today’s speaker at the Wichita Pachyderm Club is current United States Representative and Republican Party Senate nominee Jerry Moran. As a large audience is expected, please arrive by 11:45 to get your buffet lunch in time for the noon start (the larger meeting room will be used). Cost is $10, which includes lunch.

    Rasmussen: Voters don’t trust politicians’ promises. “Half (50%) now believe that when politicians break campaign promises, it’s because they deliberately made a false promise to get elected. Thirty-nine percent (39%) disagree and say unforeseen events after they took office forced them to break their promises.” In keeping with my belief in limited government, I might suggest that candidates promise to do less. But then liberal candidates say that conservative candidates don’t have a plan. More at Voters Believe Overwhelmingly That Politicians Don’t Keep Their Promises, and Most Say It’s Deliberate.

    No developer welfare; no apartments. The Wichita Business Journal reports that since developer Jason Van Sickle isn’t able to obtain federal historic preservation tax credits on a property, he’s abandoning plans to develop the project. Tax credits are, in effect, grants of money paid to — in this case — real estate developers through the tax system. But not to worry for the developer: he’s planning to hit up the state of Kansas and its taxpayers for historic preservation tax credits.

    Capitalism saved the miners. Daniel Henninger in the Wall Street Journal: “It needs to be said. The rescue of the Chilean miners is a smashing victory for free-market capitalism. … The president of the U.S. is campaigning across the country making this statement at nearly every stop: ‘The basic idea is that if we put our blind faith in the market and we let corporations do whatever they want and we leave everybody else to fend for themselves, then America somehow automatically is going to grow and prosper.’ Uh, yeah. That’s a caricature of the basic idea, but basically that’s right.” Henninger lists all the innovative technology used in the rescue, that innovation driven by capitalism in the countries where it is not snuffed out. A lesson: “In an open economy, you will never know what is out there on the leading developmental edge of this or that industry.” Innovation is driven by private companies with profit as their motive.

    Holland demands debates, then skips out. According to the Lawrence Journal-World, “[Kansas Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Tom] Holland was invited to the hour-long debate broadcast on WIBW radio and TV, but he declined because he said WIBW had already sponsored an earlier gubernatorial debate at the Kansas State Fair, and because the debate moderators were conservative radio talk show hosts Raubin Pierce and Megan Mosack.” Yes, Pierce and Mosack are conservatives. But Holland, who at one time demanded a series of 10 debates with Brownback, should have appeared. Conservative candidates and officeholders are summoned before liberal newspaper editorial boards all the time. They go and suffer the inevitable criticism. Holland should have done the same — and by all accounts, the questions were fair. And if the questions weren’t fair, Holland could have done what many candidates do in forums: they say whatever they want without regard to answering the question that was asked.

    This Week in Kansas. KAKE’s Chris Frank appears to talk about Hawker Beechcraft and Louisiana. Then Kansas Public Radio Statehouse Bureau Chief Stephen Koranda and myself discuss Kansas politics and poll results. Tim Brown is the host. “This Week in Kansas” airs in Topeka on WIBW TV channel 13 Saturdays at 11:30 am, and in Wichita on KAKE TV channel 10 Sundays at 9:00 am.

    Jim Anderson Program features candidate debate. Kansas fourth Congressional district hopefuls Democrat Raj Goyle and Republican Mike Pompeo will appear on Anderson’s radio show. Evidently, minor party candidates Susan Ducey (Reform Party) and Libertarian Shawn Smith will not appear, despite having made credible appearances on a recent KWCH televised forum. After this, Attorney Genreal candidate Derek Schmidt will appear. The Jim Anderson Program airs from 1:00 pm to 3:00 pm Saturdays on KNSS Radio 1330 on your old-school AM radio, live on the station’s website, or on your iPhone through the station’s free app.

    Kansas statewide races polled. KWCH and SurveyUSA report poll results under the headline GOP poised to win statewide races. The closet contest is for Attorney General, where challenger Derek Schmidt leads incumbent Stephen Six 48 percent to 40 percent. For the race the pollster notes: “Compared to other, stable Kansas statewide contests, there is notable volatility in the Attorney General race, uniquely; any outcome is possible.”

    Stossel on the future, tonight. “This Friday at 10pm [9:00 pm Central time], Fox News will broadcast my heated argument with NYC Transit Worker’s Union President John Samuelsen. It’s part of my special, ‘The Battle for the Future.’ More at Stossel’s blog.

    Tea party rules? The New York Times reports: “Enough Tea Party-supported candidates are running strongly in competitive and Republican-leaning Congressional races that the movement stands a good chance of establishing a sizeable caucus to push its agenda in the House and the Senate, according to a New York Times analysis. … While the numbers are relatively small, they could exert outsize influence, putting pressure on Republican leaders to carry out promises to significantly cut spending and taxes, to repeal health care legislation and financial regulations passed this year, and to phase out Social Security and Medicare in favor of personal savings accounts.” Related: FiveThirtyEight estimates Congressional Tea Party Caucus founder Michele Bachmann has 98.9 percent probability of winning her reelection contest.

    Vote Smart Announces VoteEasy. A new project presents information on federal offices. Select your state and zip code, and you’ll have information about the candidates you’ll be voting for — or not for. Click on VoteEasy to get started.

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Thursday October 14, 2010

    Wichita mayor to lead LKM. City press release: “Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer was elected as the 81st president of the League of Kansas Municipalities (LKM) during the organization’s annual conference Tuesday morning in Overland Park. … He also urged his fellow local leaders to restore the public’s confidence in government. ‘We need to have our citizens recognize the value of competent government, and why our freedoms and security depend on it,’ he said.” As noted a few days ago on these pages, the League of Kansas Municipalities is a special interest group working in favor not of the citizens who live in Kansas towns and cities, but the politicians and bureaucrats that run them — and their cronies — who benefit from the LKM’s advocacy of things like TIF districts, STAR bonds, tax abatements, and eminent domain for economic development. So I don’t know if we should be proud that our mayor is the president of this group.

    Goody Clancy in Topeka, too. The Topeka Capital-Journal reports that Goody Clancy, the planning firm working for Wichita is also working in Topeka.

    FactFinder 12: Pompeo campaign ad. Analysis of an advertisement by Kansas fourth Congressional district candidate Republican Mike Pompeo by Michael Schwanke of KWCH 12 Eyewitness News concludes that Pompeo used some of the techniques that he and Republicans strongly criticized Democrat Raj Goyle for using. Schwanke concludes: “Goyle made those statements, but the ad doesn’t provide complete context.” This is the same issue that got Republicans riled up a few weeks ago.

    Pompeo poll released. The Pompeo campaign has released a poll that was commissioned and paid for by the campaign. The results are Pompeo with 58 percent of the vote, and Goyle with 31 percent. Two minor party candidates get three percent each, and undecided voters are at 16 percent. In its analysis the polling firm notes “the confrontational attacks by Goyle have backfired and have resulted in Goyle’s negative rating increasing substantially.” Candidate-produced polls need to be considered carefully. Goyle’s campaign has released their own polls in August and September which showed a smaller Pompeo lead than public polls. FiveThirtyEight indicates it flags polls which meet its definition of a partisan poll, which it defines as a poll conducted [on behalf of] any current candidate for office. It also says “Nevertheless, they are included in the ratings. If a pollster releases a poll into the public domain, we assume that they are interested in doing their best and most accurate work, regardless of whom the poll is conducted for.” The firm that conducted this poll for Pompeo conducted a poll for the same campaign July 6th through 8th, about a month before the August primary election, with results of Pompeo leading Wink Hartman 27 percent to 21 percent. The actual results were Pompeo 39 percent, Jean Schodorf 24 percent, and Hartman 23 percent. Public polls underestimated Pompeo’s actual vote total, too.

    Kansas legislator Merrick honored. American Legislative Exchange Council, described as a “nonpartisan individual membership organization of state legislators which favors federalism and conservative public policy solutions” has recognized Kansas Representative and Majority Leader Ray Merrick with its highest award. “The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) is pleased to announce that Representative Ray Merrick of the Kansas House of Representatives recently received the highest honor that a setting legislator can receive from the organization — Legislator of the Year. Rep. Merrick received the award at ALEC’s 37th Annual Meeting, held in San Diego, Cal., August 5 — 8, 2010. Nearly 1,500 state legislators, policy experts, and private-sector leaders from across the United States attended three days of intensive discussions on the critical issues facing the states and our nation. This award is given to state legislators who are ALEC members in good standing and have distinguished themselves by advancing, introducing, and/or enacting policies based on the fundamental Jeffersonian principles of free markets, limited government, federalism, and individual liberty.”

    Education reform setback. Wall Street Journal Review & Outlook: “Michelle Rhee described her decision yesterday to step down as Washington, D.C., schools chancellor after 3½ years as ‘heartbreaking.’ We share the sentiment. That one of the nation’s most talented school reformers was forced out does not bode well for students … Ms. Rhee’s resignation ‘won immediate support from the Washington Teachers’ Union,’ a strong signal that her departure is a victory for the adults who run public education, not the kids in failing schools. … One reason education reform is so difficult is because unions believe their political influence and money will outlast even the bravest reformers in the end — which is why they’re cheering today in the District of Columbia.”

    Wichita Eagle voter guide available. Click here. You can get a list of the candidates, along with their responses to questions, customized for your address. The first advance voter ballots were mailed yesterday.

    Kansas Jackass blogger guilty. Kansas Watchdog reports: “Former blogger Jason Croucher entered a plea of guilty to 3 counts of child pornography on Wednesday morning at the U.S. Court House. Croucher’s progressive ‘Kansas Jackass’ blog was widely read by members of the Kansas Legislature and others in Kansas in 2009. The blog is no longer online.” Croucher operated anonymously until “outed” by Earl Glynn and myself, although he planned to become known on his own at some time. His style was to poke fun at his opponents, using anything negative about them as material for his attacks. Rarely was public policy discussed in a meaningful and serious way.

    Wichita Eagle Opinion Line. “Gov. Mark Parkinson: I have six employees. I need to expand my business or quit. Please loan me $1 million to be paid back with my employees’ income tax. Thank you.” A fine example of government intervention crowding out private investment and initiative.

  • Political site FiveThirtyEight looks at polls, statistics

    The political website FiveThirtyEight provides an innovative look at political forecasting and also supplies useful information about candidates and political districts.

    The site FiveThirtyEight.com was active during the 2008 campaign season. Now it is a feature of the New York Times and can be accessed at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com. The name comes from from the number of electors in the United States electoral college.

    FiveThirtyEight uses a variety of methods to arrive at its results, including polls, where polls are weighted by several factors including recency, sample size, and the polling firm’s track record. Some polls are considered so unreliable that they are not included. The weighted polls results are adjusted by several factors, including a trendline adjustment and likely voter adjustment.

    The data is further adjusted by factors such as the state’s Partisan Voting Index, individual monetary contributions received, and “a variable representing stature, based on the highest elected office that the candidate has held.”

    There are additional steps in the analysis. Finally, the FiveThirtyEight procedures uses simulation, where various factors are considered randomly over a large number of trials.

    When FiveThirtyEight reports its results, it also calculates the probability that a candidate will win the election. It might forecast, for example, that a candidate will finish with 55 percent of the vote, with the probability of winning at 85 percent. Winning, of course, means that the candidate gets at least one more vote than the closest opponent — no margin of victory is implied in the probability.

    The site is also a useful repository of information such as voting record in selected issues, campaign finance, district demographics, and previous election results.

    The FiveThirtyEight site doesn’t say this, but we can easily surmise that the lead that some candidates currently enjoy is the result of not only the policy positions of the candidate and the political landscape of the district, but importantly the product of the campaign the candidates have waged so far. Candidates with leads need to realize this and keep up their efforts.

    FiveThirtyEight forecasts for Kansas

    In Kansas, here are the results FiveThirtyEight forecasts:

    For United States Senate: Democrat Lisa Johnston 31.2 percent; Republican Jerry Moran 66.2 percent. The probability of a Moran win is 100 percent. This forecast has held steady over time.

    For Kansas Governor: Republican Sam Brownback 60.5 percent; Democrat Tom Holland 37.6 percent. Probability of a Brownback victory is 99.9 percent. The vote difference has been narrowing very slightly, but the probability of a Brownback win is still overwhelming.

    For U.S. Congress, District 1: Republican Tim Huelskamp 72.7 percent; Democrat Alan Jilka 24.5 percent. Probability of a Huelskamp win is 100 percent.

    For U.S. Congress, District 2: Democrat Cheryl Hudspeth 35.6 percent; Incumbent Republican Lynn Jenkins 62.8 percent. Probability of a Jenkins win is 100 percent.

    For U.S. Congress, District 3: Democrat Stephene Moore 42.5 percent; Republican Kevin Yoder 55.0 percent. Probability of a Yoder victory is 92.7 percent. This is the only Kansas Congressional district that is remotely competitive, described as “leaning Republican.” Yoder’s margin has been increasing very slightly.

    For U.S. Congress, District 4: Democrat Raj Goyle 36.5 percent; Republican Mike Pompeo 61.0 percent. Probability of a Pompeo victory is 99.9 percent. Pompeo’s lead over Goyle has been growing since the September 17th version of the model for this contest. These results don’t include the SurveyUSA poll of just a few days ago, which showed Pompeo’s lead over Goyle widening.

  • Kansas and Wichita quick takes: Saturday October 9, 2010

    This Week in Kansas: Tomorrow on KAKE Television‘s “This Week in Kansas” Kansas Policy Institute President Dave Trabert will be a guest speaking about economic development in Kansas. This is an important topic as Kansas is in “whack-a-mole” mode as we — case by case — defend our industry from poaching by other states. This Week in Kansas airs at 9:00 am on KAKE channel 10. The Winfield Daily Courier has other notes on this upcoming episode.

    Sue Schlapp: Wichita Eagle Opinion Line Extra today: “At a past Wichita City Council meeting, council member Sue Schlapp got on her soapbox about needing less government in our lives. Then last week she turned around and voted for the community improvement district tax for the Broadview Hotel. Is this talking out of both sides of her mouth?” I’m glad someone other than I has noticed this.

    Dave Unruh campaign billboardDave Unruh campaign billboard

    Unruh’s record on taxes: A reader sent in this photograph of a Dave Unruh billboard supporting his run for reelection to the Sedgwick County Commission, noting the irony of the “Lower Taxes” message. The reader may have been referring to Unruh’s support of a solid waste management fee (a tax by another name), his vote in August 2006 to increase the county mill levy, and his enthusiastic support of the tax for the downtown arena, now known as the Intrust Bank Arena. The vote for a tax increase in 2006 was in part to build the National Center for Aviation Training, said to be necessary to keep Wichita aviation companies in Wichita. Nonetheless, Cessna, Bombardier Learjet, and recently Hawker Beechcraft have found it necessary to shake down the state and local government for even more corporate welfare. Still, I don’t recommend voting for Unruh’s opponent Betty Arnold, who recently wondered where was the government stimulus for USD 259, the Wichita public school district, on which board she serves. Evidently Arnold doesn’t realize that nearly every dollar the Wichita schools spend is government money.

    Arnold’s website missing: By the way, Google can’t find a website supporting Betty Arnold’s campaign, which says a lot right there.

    Goyle and Pompeo: Tomorrow Kansas fourth Congressional district candidates Democrat Raj Goyle and Republican Mike Pompeo debate at Congregation Emanu-El at 7011 E. Central in Wichita. State of the State KS reports: “The debate will be moderated by KAKE-TV’s Tim Brown from This Week In Kansas and will focus on both local economic, political and foreign policy issues facing the U.S. The debate is free and begins at 10:40 am. A brunch will be served before the debate for $7.” It appears that Reform party candidate Susan Ducey and Libertarian Shawn Smith will not appear. The two minor party candidates made credible appearances on a recent KWCH televised forum.

    Goyle video, polls: Speaking of Goyle, video of Goyle endorsing presidential candidate Barack Obama in Texas has surfaced. And, more bad polls for Goyle.

  • In Kansas fourth, Pompeo ups lead over Goyle

    A new KWCH Television and SurveyUSA poll of candidates for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas shows Republican Mike Pompeo increasing his lead over his primary challenger, Democrat Raj Goyle.

    The new poll shows Pompeo increasing his share of the vote from 50 percent to 53 percent, compared to the previous poll by the same organization 22 days earlier. Goyle’s share remains unchanged at 40 percent.

    Only three percent of the voters are undecided.

    Other results from the poll include Reform party candidate Susan Ducey with two percent, and Libertarian Shawn Smith checking in with two percent as well. Smith replaced David Moffett on the Libertarian Party ticket.

    A recent discussion with a veteran Kansas political reporter reminded me of how unreliable polls can be. About three weeks before the August primary election, this same polling organization showed Goyle slightly trailing his opponent. Goyle won the primary with 80 percent of the vote, with a poll shortly before the election showing Goyle leading 63 percent to 19 percent.

    Kansas fourth district Congressional pollKansas fourth district Congressional poll

  • Raj Goyle tax cut votes not exactly as advertised

    In his campaign, Democratic Party candidate for Congress Raj Goyle says he has voted to cut taxes 50 times. Examination of the record shows some genuine votes against taxes, but also examples of voting with the herd, and some votes that actually increase taxes on most Kansans.

    On Goyle’s campaign website, we can read these words: “He is a proven fiscal conservative who voted to cut government spending and lower taxes on middle class families and small businesses every year he has been in office. Other candidates talk about cutting taxes, but Raj has done it. In just four years, he has voted to cut $500 million in wasteful government spending and voted more than 50 times to relieve Kansans of a total of $900 million in taxes.”

    Other material on his site promotes his “record of bipartisanship and fiscal responsibility.” So an examination of his votes against taxes is in order.

    The record of tax cut votes claimed by Goyle is on his campaign website at the page Pompeo distorts Goyle’s record on taxes. Some votes, such as his vote against the statewide sales tax increase that took effect on July 1, are actual votes against increased taxes. To which I say — even though it’s widely believed that this vote was election-year window dressing during a campaign for Congress — thank you.

    Some of the measures Goyle voted for passed nearly unanimously. In these cases, these votes are simply him following the legislative herd. An example is his vote for HB 2264, where on March 14, 2007, he was on the winning side of a 121 to one vote. Another example given was his vote on HB 2004 in 2007, where he was again in the majority of a 117 to three landslide.

    What is more important from a public policy perspective, however, is Goyle’s votes for various tax credit programs. These programs are not tax reductions with broad application. Instead, these programs spend money using the tax system as the vehicle. Unless the legislature votes for offsetting spending cuts — and it hasn’t — other taxpayers must pay more.

    Ironically, the Center for American Progress, where Goyle once worked, has an article that accurately explains how tax expenditures (tax credits) masquerade as tax cuts. See Tax Expenditures 101: What They Are and How They Slip Under the Radar. Other information may be found at The ‘tax expenditure’ solution for our national debt.

    Here are some of the tax credits that Goyle’s campaign website says he voted for:

    Goyle Voted For A Historic Preservation Tax Credit: In 2007, Goyle voted for HB 2405.

    Goyle Voted For An Amendment Regarding Corporate Tax Credit: In 2010, Goyle voted for an amendment that would have allowed a business to receive up to $50,000 in tax credit for complying with smoking regulations

    Goyle Voted Twice For Rural Business Tax Credits: In 2007, Goyle voted twice for HB 2004. The bill continued the annual $2 million Rural Business Development Tax Credits. The bill also created a tax credit for Kansas film production.

    All of these tax credit programs increase taxes on the vast majority of taxpayers in order to convey benefits to a chosen few.

    Finally, some of the tax cuts that Goyle voted for are outright corporate welfare that benefited only one company, on in another case, a narrow range of companies. An example is this item, again from Goyle’s campaign website: “In 2007, Goyle voted for SB 240, which was a bill that established a single-factor corporation income tax apportionment formula option for manufacturers constructing a new facility in Kansas that would cost at least $100 million and would employ at least 100 new employees by December 31, 2009. The bill was designed to help keep Hill’s Pet Nutrition in Kansas.”

    Goyle’s site explains that this measure was necessary to keep this company located in Kansas, and that the company added at least 100 jobs. Perhaps it was necessary, and maybe even wise. But it wasn’t a vote to cut taxes — except for the taxes on one company. This is more properly described as corporate welfare for which other Kansas taxpayers have to pay.

    Besides Goyle, other candidates in the race are Reform Party candidate Susan Ducey, Republican Mike Pompeo, and Libertarian Shawn Smith.

  • Raj Goyle anti-outsourcing plan likely to backfire

    A plan advocated by Democratic Party candidate for Congress Raj Goyle to reduce the outsourcing of jobs from the United States is likely to produce the opposite effect, according to the Wall Street Journal.

    Goyle is candidate for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas. He has criticized his leading opponent, Republican Mike Pompeo, claiming that Pompeo, as president of a manufacturing company, outsourced Kansas jobs to Mexico.

    On Goyle’s campaign website, under the heading “Economy: Jobs” we find: “It’s vital to create jobs and keep jobs in Kansas. The very first thing I will do in Congress is work to immediately repeal tax cuts for companies that ship jobs overseas. We must start providing tax breaks and incentives to those who create jobs and manufacturing bases in Kansas.”

    In a “Review and Outlook” piece titled The Send Jobs Overseas Act, the Journal explains how the tax breaks Goyle wants to end actually work. This is something that probably very few people understand, so here’s the explanation: “Under current tax law, American companies pay the corporate tax rate in the host country where the subsidiary is located and then pay the difference between the U.S. rate (35%) and the foreign rate when they bring profits back to the U.S. This is called deferral — i.e., the U.S. tax is deferred until the money comes back to these shores.”

    So it’s not really a tax break — if by that we mean the corporation never pays taxes on its profits. Instead, payment of the tax is deferred, although the deferral does have value.

    The Journal notes that the only major country with a higher corporate income tax rate is Japan. The tax rate on new capital investment in the U.S. is nearly twice the average of that in OECD countries.

    This high tax in the U.S. encourages investment overseas. A report this year by the White House tax reform panel concluded: “The growing gap between the U.S. corporate tax rate and the corporate tax rates of most other countries generates incentives for U.S. corporations to shift their income and operations to foreign locations with lower corporate tax rates to avoid U.S. rates.”

    And as other countries cut their tax rates, the inventive to leave the U.S. and its high taxes becomes stronger, the report also says.

    The piece also cites an earlier tax reform from 1986 where the U.S. eliminated tax deferral on shipping income. This is the same reform Goyle touts as good for the entire U.S. economy. But the Journal notes this reform was “a real disaster for U.S. shipping,” with U.S. shipping capacity falling by 50 percent over a period of years following this reform.

    The path advocated by Goyle — President Obama wants this too — would be a disaster for America. “CEO Steve Ballmer has warned that if the President’s plan is enacted, Microsoft would move facilities and jobs out of the U.S.”

    The best solution for job creation in the U.S. is to reduce our corporate income tax rate to match or undercut the rate of other developed countries. This would spur investment in America, not only by domestic companies, but by foreign companies, too. Goyle’s plan to raise taxes on American corporations will only harm job creation both here and abroad.

  • ‘Fire Pelosi’ bus in Wichita

    Yesterday the Fire Pelosi Bus Tour stopped in Wichita, primarily to support the candidacy of Republican Mike Pompeo in the race for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas.

    Listen to Pompeo’s remarks:
    [powerpress]

    In his remarks, Pompeo referred to commercials run by his Democratic party opponent Raj Goyle, which he said were “half-truths at best, and intentional misdeception at worst.” The ad uses a fragment of a paragraph — a sentence taken out of context — to distort Pompeo’s position on the role of the federal government in job creation.

    Reporting from the Wichita Eagle, which contains a response from Goyle’s campaign, is at RNC chairman stumps for Pompeo.

  • Kansas fourth district poll shows Pompeo lead, little change

    A KWCH Television and SurveyUSA poll of candidates for United States Congress from the fourth district of Kansas shows little change from a similar poll about a month ago.

    The poll shows Republican Mike Pompeo leading Democrat Raj Goyle by 50 percent to 40 percent. These numbers changed just slightly from the previous survey, which had Pompeo leading 49 percent to 42 percent. Neither of the changes are statistically significant.

    Four percent of the voters are undecided.

    Other results include Reform party candidate Susan Ducey with four percent, and Libertarian David Moffett with three percent.

    SurveyUSA’s commentary is as follows: “Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 1 month ago, Pompeo is up an insignificant 1 point; Goyle is down an insignificant 2. Pompeo has gained ground among the oldest, traditionally the most reliable voters, where he had trailed by 16, now leads by 4. Goyle offsets this by cutting into Pompeo’s lead among middle-aged voters, where Pompeo had led by 34 points, now leads by 20. 18% of Republicans today cross over to vote for Goyle, down from 22% last month; 12% of Democrats cross over to vote for Pompeo, up from 6% last month. Independents today lean slightly toward Goyle, favoring the Democrat by 7 points, up from a nominal 2-point lead 1 month ago.”

    Goyle’s campaign has released the results of its own poll from last week, which shows Pompeo leading Goyle by 46 percent to 44 percent, a closer lead than the KWCH/SurveyUSA poll. No details of its methodology were released.

    During the primary election, Jean Schodorf’s campaign released surveys that showed her to be leading. In the end, the KWCH/SurveyUSA poll correctly predicted Pompeo as the winner, although it understated the vote he actually received.

    During the period between the two KWCH/SurveyUSA polls, Goyle has been actively advertising on television. The Pompeo campaign started advertising on September 9th, just before this poll was conducted.

    Kansas fourth Congressional district poll resultsKansas fourth Congressional district poll results