Voice For Liberty

Tag: Economics

  • Kansas GDP

    Kansas GDP

    In the first quarter of 2020, the Kansas economy contracted at the annual rate of 3.1 percent, compared to 2.1 percent growth in the previous quarter. While GDP fell in all states, Kansas performed relatively well, with only four states contracting less.

    In the first quarter of 2020, the Kansas economy contracted at the annual rate of 3.1 percent in real (inflation-adjusted) dollars, according to statistics released today by Bureau of Economic Analysis, a division of the United States Department of Commerce. GDP for the quarter was at the annual rate of $175,124 million. The first quarter consists of the months of January, February, and March.

    This the first quarter to be affected by the response to the pandemic, as BEA noted in the release:

    The 2020 Q1 estimates of GDP by state were impacted by the response to the spread of COVID-19, as governments issued “stay-at-home” orders. This led to rapid changes in demand, as businesses and schools switched to remote work or canceled operations, and consumers canceled, restricted, or redirected their spending. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the GDP by state estimates for 2020 Q1 because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified.

    The Kansas rate of -3.1 percent ranked fifth among the states, meaning Kansas avoided the effects of the pandemic more than most states. While GDP fell in all states, Kansas performed relatively well, with only Nebraska, South Dakota, Texas, and North Dakota contracting less. The national rate was -5.0 percent, with the rate for the Plains states at -3.6 percent. (For this data, BEA defines Plains states as Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota.)

    Over the last ten quarters, Kansas has averaged quarterly growth rates of 1.2 percent in annual terms. For the nation, the rate was 1.7 percent. For the Plains states, it was 1.4 percent.

    For the complete release at BEA, click on Gross Domestic Product by State, 1st Quarter 2020.

    I also have developed an interactive visualization of this data over time. To access, click on Visualization: Quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product by state and industry.

    Click for larger.
  • Presidential jobs explorer

    Presidential jobs explorer

    Explore the jobs creation record of presidents, starting with Harry S Truman.

    To examine the record of presidents regarding jobs, I gathered data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor and present it in an interactive visualization.

    The data shown in this visualization is all employees working at nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted. This is the statistic most commonly used when measuring the growth or contraction of employment.

    For each president, data is presented by month, with the first month of each president’s term having number one. Data is shown in several views. For most, you may select a range of months and which presidents appear.

    Click here to learn more about this data and access the visualization.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger.
  • Kansas tax revenue, June 2020

    Kansas tax revenue, June 2020

    For June 2020, total Kansas tax revenue fell by 4.8 percent from last June. For the just-completed fiscal year 2020, revenue was down by 5.7 percent from the previous year.

    Tax reports from the State of Kansas for June 2020 reveal some of the effects of the response to the pandemic on state finances.

    When reporting on Kansas tax collections, the comparison is usually made to the estimated collections. Those estimates were revised in April based on economic conditions affected by the response to the pandemic. To get a feel for the effects of the response to the pandemic, it is best to compare to the same month the prior year.

    For June 2020, individual income tax collections were $353,085,379, down 9.0 percent from last June. Retail sales tax collections rose by 1.9 percent to $202,954,351. Total tax collections were $744,387,640, down 4.8 percent from the same month last year. A nearby table summarizes.

    June also marks the end of fiscal year 2020. For the year, individual income tax was down by 11.1 percent, retail sales tax was up slightly, and all other taxes down by 1.6 percent. In sum, tax revenue fell from $7,471,302,208 in fiscal year 2019 to $7,049,143,310 in fiscal year 2020, a decline of 5.7 percent.

    My report on tax revenue for April details some changes made by the estimating group.

    My interactive visualization of Kansas tax revenue has been updated with June data. Click here to use it.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger.
  • National employment, June 2020

    National employment, June 2020

    There is good news in the jobs report for June.

    The headline from the jobs report released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, is that the unemployment rate fell in June as the number of people with jobs rose.

    Specifically, the number of employed people rose from 137,242,000 in May to 142,182,000 in June (3.6 percent). The number of unemployed persons fell from 20,985,000 to 17,750,000 (15.4 percent). The civilian labor force rose from 158,227,000 to 159,932,000 (1.1 percent).

    These numbers produced an unemployment rate of 11.1 percent, down from 13.3 percent in May. This data is from the household survey, which counts people, and these are seasonally adjusted values.

    From the establishment survey, which counts jobs, the number of nonfarm jobs rose from 133,002,000 in May to 137,802,000 in June, an increase of 4,800,000 jobs (3.6 percent), seasonally adjusted

    BLS has been working through an issue of misclassification or workers. This issue has been affecting monthly data starting in March. For May, BLS estimated that the misclassification produced an unemployment rate three percentage points lower than the actual. For June, BLS says the degree of misclassification has declined. If workers were correctly classified, BLS estimates the unemployment rate for June would be one percentage point higher, and describes that as the upper bound that probably overstates the true size of the error.

    A few notes of caution: The BLS figures are estimates gathered by surveying a sample of households and business firms. They are subject to both sampling and nonsampling errors. BLS has told of impacts on data collection and estimation methodology due to the pandemic, and there could be errors in both.

    BLS data is subject to two monthly revisions. In the June report, BLS revised the nonfarm payroll employment down by 100,000 for April, and up by 190,000 for May.

    A sample of news reporting:

    Stephanie Aaronson of Brookings Institution:

    The report clearly showed evidence of continued improvement related to the reopening of many parts of the economy following the shutdowns precipitated by the virus. The survey of employers showed payrolls were up by 4.8 million, and the job gains were in industries that were hardest hit by the pandemic, including leisure and hospitality and health services, which includes doctors’ and dentists’ offices. There is clear evidence that firms are hiring. The unemployment rate declined, for the second month, and the labor force participation rate – the share of adults working or looking for work – rose by seven-tenths of a percentage point. These are all consistent with the economy gradually reopening in the middle of June.

    But we shouldn’t extrapolate from these trends because some states have scaled back their reopening because of the uptick in coronvavirus cases. It’s unclear what the state of the job market is right now or what we’ll see when the BLS releases its snapshot of the job market for mid-July.

    Wall Street Journal news:

    Unemployment fell and the U.S. economy regained 4.8 million jobs in June, but the recent surge in coronavirus infections could throw the recovery off course.

    The job growth followed May’s payroll gain of 2.7 million and showed people were getting back to work and the economy was healing faster than anticipated. Still, the U.S. labor market is operating with about 15 million fewer jobs than in February, the month before the pandemic struck the U.S., while the country faces an increase in coronavirus cases that has led some states and businesses to change course on reopenings.

    There already are signs the economy could be affected by the virus surge that started in late June, after surveys were completed for the jobs report. Restaurant seating in several large cities declined at the end of the month and credit-card spending eased, said Sung Won Sohn, an economist at Loyola Marymount University.

    Wall Street Journal editorial:

    The media’s grim reapers continue to predict catastrophe from the Covid-19 resurgence, but it’s hard to read Thursday’s labor report as anything but good news. The U.S. economy beat forecasts as employers added 4.8 million jobs in June while the unemployment rate fell to 11.1% from 13.3% in May. Businesses are willing to hire, and Americans want to return to work, if government will let them. …

    Liberals are casting the sunnier than expected jobs report as mostly cloudy. They say next month’s will be worse due to the state flare-ups. Ergo, Congress must extend the $600 weekly federal enhanced jobless benefit that is scheduled to lapse at the end of July. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Oregon Sen. Ron Wyden want to tie enhanced jobless benefits to a state’s unemployment rate, but this would maintain the incentive not to work in states with already high jobless benefits and retard the national recovery.

    Most Americans prefer a job to a welfare check. The virus will be around for some time, and states may need to adjust their reopenings in response to flare-ups. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott issued a mandatory mask order on Friday, which beats a shutdown. The more states can do to let Americans safely return to normal life, the better for the economy and overall well-being of the American people.

    CNN Business:

    The US unemployment rate fell to 11.1% as the economy added a record 4.8 million jobs in June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday.

    The data was far better than economists predicted, and the unemployment rate also fell more than expected. It was the second-consecutive month of growth after more than 20 million jobs were wiped out in April during the coronavirus lockdown. The reopening of the economy is easing the burden on America’s stressed labor market. …

    A full job market recovery is far from certain as long as the US economy remains in its current, deep recession, and “with the spread of the virus accelerating again, we expect the recovery from here will be a lot bumpier and job gains to be more muted,” said Michael Pearce, senior US economist at Capital Economics, in a note.

    America is dealing with a severe joblessness crisis and millions of people are relying on government aid to make ends meet.

    The Department of Labor also reported Thursday that 1.4 million workers — more than expected — filed for first-time unemployment benefits last week. While the claims data is collected weekly, the survey for the jobs report wraps around the middle of each month.

  • Metropolitan employment and labor force

    Metropolitan employment and labor force

    A visualization of employment, labor force, and the unemployment rate for metropolitan areas, now with data through May 2020.

    How does the Wichita metropolitan area compare with others regarding employment, labor force, and unemployment rate? The Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, has data that provides the answer.

    I’ve gathered data from BLS and present it in an interactive visualization with tables, charts, and a map. This monthly data is from 1990 to May 2020, which is the last month for which BLS has produced data for metropolitan areas. Click here to learn more and use the visualization. Below is an example from the visualization.

    Click for larger.
  • Wichita jobs and employment, May 2020

    Wichita jobs and employment, May 2020

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in May 2020, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down, all by large amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago, but improving from April.

    Data released yesterday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effects of the response to the pandemic in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for May 2020.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment fell from 307,500 last May to 285,000 in May 2020, a loss of 22,500 jobs (7.3 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation fell by 11.7 percent. The unemployment rate in May 2020 was 13.9 percent, up from 3.2 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 4,407 persons (1.3 percent) in May 2020 from April 2020, the number of unemployed persons fell by 14,143 (23.2 percent), and the unemployment rate was 14.2 percent, down from 18.2 percent in April. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 283,562 in May from 273,826 the prior month, an increase of 9,736 persons (3.6 percent).

    The following chart of the monthly change in the labor force and employment shows the magnitude of the drop in April overwhelming other months, and then a positive change in May.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a similar same trend — fewer jobs, although the labor force grew.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation. For April and May 2020, the two full months first affected by the pandemic, we see the decline in employment Wichita has not been as severe as the nation..

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation.

  • Tariffs, after all, are paid by Americans

    Tariffs, after all, are paid by Americans

    Action taken in April by President Donald J. Trump confirms: The tariffs he imposed on China are paid by Americans.

    In April, President Donald J. Trump issued an executive order titled “Executive Order on National Emergency Authority to Temporarily Extend Deadlines for Certain Estimated Payments.” It is also known as Executive Order 13916.

    The order is opaque: “(b) The Secretary shall consider taking appropriate action under section 1318(a) of title 19, United States Code, to temporarily extend deadlines, for importers suffering significant financial hardship because of COVID-19, for the estimated payments described therein, other than those assessed pursuant to sections 1671, 1673, 1862, 2251, and 2411 of title 19, United States Code.” 1

    Unless you know what Section 1318(a) of title 19, United States Code holds, and you know the meaning of the sections that hold exceptions, the executive order doesn’t mean much. The Congressional Research Service can help. 2 In its analysis, it says:

    On April 18, 2020, President Donald J. Trump issued Executive Order 13916 to provide the Secretary of the Treasury temporary emergency authority under Section 318(a) of the Tariff Act of 1930 (19 U.S.C. 1318(a), as amended) to extend deadlines for certain estimated payments of taxes, duties, and fees “for importers suffering significant financial hardship because of COVID-19.” Section 318(a) allows the President to authorize the Secretary of the Treasury to extend payment deadlines during a period of national emergency proclaimed pursuant to the National Emergencies Act.

    In essence, this allows American importers to delay paying tariffs on imported goods. Paying these tariffs at the time of import — in other words, the normal procedure — would be a financial hardship, according to the executive order.

    This goes to the question of who pays tariffs. On the trade war with China, President Trump and his trade advisors say it is China who pays, mostly. On May 5, 2019, the president stated this:

    For 10 months, China has been paying Tariffs to the USA of 25% on 50 Billion Dollars of High Tech, and 10% on 200 Billion Dollars of other goods. These payments are partially responsible for our great economic results. The 10% will go up to 25% on Friday. 325 Billions Dollars of additional goods sent to us by China remain untaxed, but will be shortly, at a rate of 25%. The Tariffs paid to the USA have had little impact on product cost, mostly borne by China. The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to renegotiate. No! 3

    China pays tariffs to the USA, according to Trump.

    Recently Peter Navarro, who serves as Assistant to the President, Director of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, and the national Defense Production Act policy coordinator, said this:

    “So far, and it will continue this way, China is paying the tariffs, not the American public. Chinese producers pay these tariffs. We have seen this.” 4

    Navarro went on to explain that China bears the burden of the tariffs through lower prices, lower exports, and lower profits. The Chinese government, he said, has lower growth, a higher unemployment rate, less tax revenue, and a devalued currency.

    China is paying the tariffs, not the American public, according to Trump’s top trade economist and advisor.

    But if the claims of Trump and Navarro are true, why do American companies need relief from paying tariffs?

    Or, if China is paying the tariffs, why are we giving that country relief from paying?

    As Eric Boehm recently wrote:

    It took a pandemic for the White House to admit a basic economic reality: Tariffs on goods imported into the United States are paid by Americans. That’s something that pretty much everyone outside of President Donald Trump and White House trade adviser Peter Navarro already knew. But for nearly two years—ever since Trump launched his trade wars in March 2018—the president and his defenders have stubbornly claimed, contra both theory and evidence, that the duties are absorbed by China and other exporters.

    Despite that insistence, Trump on April 18 signed an executive order that will grant some American businesses a three-month deferral on paying tariffs. This will provide some “payment flexibility” for American importers facing “significant financial hardship” due to the COVID-19 outbreak and an ongoing economic shutdown, the administration said.

    —
    Notes

    1. The White House. Executive Order on National Emergency Authority to Temporarily Extend Deadlines for Certain Estimated Payments. April 19, 2020. Available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-national-emergency-authority-temporarily-extend-deadlines-certain-estimated-payments/. Or, in the Federal Register, see Executive Order 13916 of April 18, 2020, available at https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2020/04/23/2020-08846/national-emergency-authority-to-temporarily-extend-deadlines-for-certain-estimated-payments. ↩
    2. Congressional Research Service. TemporaryDeferment of Import Duty Payments. April 30, 2020. Available at https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IN/IN11371. ↩
    3. Twitter, available at https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1125069835044573186. ↩
    4. Fox Business Network. Peter Navarro: Chinese producers pay for these tariffs. Jun 21, 2019. Video available at https://youtu.be/QS789wEu4Mg. ↩
  • Wichita city population rises in 2019

    Wichita city population rises in 2019

    Wichita city population rose in 2019, but is still below its recent peak.

    Each year the United States Census Bureau produces new population estimates through its Population and Housing Unit Estimates program.

    For the City of Wichita on July 1, 2019, the estimated population was 389,938. This is an increase of 707 over the prior year, which is 0.18 percent. It is below Wichita’s peak population of 390,519 in 2016 by 581 people (0.15 percent).

    When the Census Bureau produces estimates for a new year, it also revises the estimates for prior years. For the city of Wichita in recent years, the revisions have been very small, almost always less than one-tenth of one percent.

    A nearby chart plots the population of the city, along with Overland Park, which is the second-largest city in Kansas. The chart also plots the percent change from the prior year. It is common for large changes to appear in decennial census years like 2010, as estimates are recalibrated to the census.

    For the population of the Wichita metropolitan area, see Wichita metro population for 2019.

    I’ve created an interactive visualization of this and other population data. Click here to learn more and access the visualization.

    Click for larger.
  • Employment in the states

    Employment in the states

    An interactive visualization of monthly employment in the states by major industry category.

    The Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, gathers data about people and jobs. I’ve gathered some of its data on monthly employment levels in the states and present it in an interactive visualization.

    The data in this visualization is from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. BLS describes it as “a monthly survey conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It is a federal and state cooperative program that provides employment, hours, and earnings estimates for states and metropolitan areas based on payroll records of business establishments.” 1 For more information about this data and to access the visualization, click on Visualization: Employment in the states.

    The visualization has a table of figures and several charts that show the relative growth of jobs over time. For most charts, you may select the time span, industry category, and states.

    One chart, titled “Single State Comparison,” lets you select one state. It then plots that state as one line, and all other states as another line. The nearby example shows this chart with Kansas as the selected state, with data starting in 2010 and ending this February, the last month before the response to the pandemic significantly affected jobs in the United States.

    In this chart, you can see Kansas lagging far behind the nation in nonfarm and private-sector employment growth. For state government employees, the trend was downward in the first portion of the last decade, but the trend is rising. Local government employment changed very little.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger.

    In another chart showing the growth of nonfarm employment over time, Kansas lags behind in comparison to some nearby states.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger.

    For more information about this data and to use the visualization, click on Visualization: Employment in the states.

    —
    Notes

    1. Bureau of Labor Statistics. State & Area Current Employment Statistics Overview. Available at https://www.bls.gov/sae/overview.htm. ↩