Voice For Liberty

Tag: Economics

  • Small area income and poverty estimates

    Small area income and poverty estimates

    An interactive visualization of household income and poverty data for states and counties, now with data through 2019.

    The United States Census Bureau gathers statistics in a program called Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates, or SAIPE. This week the Bureau released figures for 2019.

    In the nearby example showing the poverty rate for Sedgwick County, Kansas, and the United States, we see that poverty rates have declined since the end of the Great Recession. We also see that the poverty rate for Sedgwick County and the nation trend closely, and both are higher than the statewide rate for Kansas.

    Click for larger.

    Of note: This data ends with the calendar year 2019, so the effects of the pandemic had not yet happened.

    This interactive visualization presents median household income and all-ages poverty rate and population for states and counties.

    Click here to learn more and access the interactive visualization. Data is available in tables, charts, and maps.

  • Monthly state retail sales

    Monthly state retail sales

    Monthly retail sales by state and major retail sector, in an interactive visualization.

    The United States Census Bureau has released a new experimental data product reporting monthly retail sales at the state level for major retail sectors. I’ve gathered the data and created an interactive visualization.

    The data is supplied as percent change from the same month one year prior. It does not include non-store retailers.

    In the charts, you can easily observe the sharp drop in most retail sectors in the spring. In this example from chart 4, comparing Kansas to the nation, we can see that Kansas has fared better.

    To learn more about the data and access the interactive visualization, click here.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger
  • National employment, November 2020

    National employment, November 2020

    An interactive visualization of national employment data, updated through November 2020.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the national employment situation improving, but at a diminishing rate in recent months. BLS summarized the situation:

    Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 6.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. These improvements in the labor market reflect the continued resumption of economic activity that had been curtailed due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and efforts to contain it. However, the pace of improvement in the labor market has moderated in recent months. In November, notable job gains occurred in transportation and warehousing, professional and business services, and health care. Employment declined in government and retail trade.

    The decline in government employment is mostly due to the winding down of the decennial census: “A decline of 86,000 in federal government employment reflected the loss of 93,000 temporary workers who had been hired for the 2020 Census.”

    An excerpt from my interactive visualization shows the rate of employment change from the previous month declining.

    Employment, change from previous month. Click for larger.

    To learn more about the data and access the visualization, click here. The archived version of the release for this month from BLS is here.

    Example from the visualization. Click for larger
  • Wichita jobs and employment, October 2020

    Wichita jobs and employment, October 2020

    For the Wichita metropolitan area in October 2020, the number of unemployed persons is up, the unemployment rate is up, and the number of people working is down, all by large amounts, when compared to the same month one year ago. The recent trend, however, is positive.

    Data released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows the effects of the response to the pandemic in the Wichita Metropolitan Statistical Area for October 2020.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    Total nonfarm employment fell from 307,600 last October to 295,800 in October 2020, a loss of 11,800 jobs (3.8 percent). (This data is not seasonally adjusted, so month-to-month comparisons are not valid.) For the same period, employment in the nation fell by 6.0 percent. The unemployment rate in October 2020 was 6.8 percent, up from 3.1 percent one year ago.

    Considering seasonally adjusted data from the household survey, the labor force rose by 6,964 persons (2.2 percent) in October 2020 from September 2020, the number of unemployed persons fell by 3,262 (12.3 percent), and the unemployment rate was 7.2 percent, down from 8.4 percent in September. The number of employed persons not working on farms rose to 298,462 in October from 288,236 the prior month, an increase of 10,226 persons (3.5 percent). (See note below.)

    The following chart of the monthly change in the labor force and employment in Wichita shows the magnitude of the drop in April overwhelming other months, and then a positive change in employment for the following months, the months of little change, and then strong growth in October.

    The following chart of changes from the same month one year ago shows a similar same trend — fewer jobs, although the difference is becoming smaller as more people return to work.

    The following chart of changes in employment from the same month of the previous year shows months when the Wichita MSA performed better than the nation before the pandemic. In all months affected by the pandemic, we see the loss in employment Wichita has not been as severe as the nation.

    The following chart shows the monthly change in nonfarm jobs for Wichita and the nation. For September, the number of jobs in Wichita was unchanged, while for the nation, the number grew a small amount. For the last four months, Wichita employment has been growing at a rate slower than the national rate.

    The link to the archived version of the BLS news release for this month is here.

    The following two charts show changes in jobs for Wichita and the nation over longer periods. The change is calculated from the same month of the previous year. For times when the Wichita line was above the nation, Wichita was growing faster than the nation. This was often the case during the decades starting in 1990 and 2000. Since 2010, however, Wichita has rarely outperformed the nation and sometimes has been far below the nation. Since the pandemic, however, Wichita has been outperforming the nation.

    (For data on all metropolitan areas in the nation, see my interactive visualization Metro area employment and unemployment. It is updated through October 2020.)

    A note: There are two series of employment data used by me to produce these tables and charts. One series comes from CES, the establishment survey, and another comes from a program called Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted Metropolitan Area Estimates, or SSAM. Usually, there is not much difference in the data from the two sources. For October 2020, the SSAM value is 2.0 percent higher than the CES value. For the two previous months the SSAM value was lower by 1.5 percent and 1.6 percent from the CES value. This is much larger than the average difference of 0.3 percent for the previous 18 months. I’ve inquired to BLS and will update as I find an explanation.

  • Kansas tax revenue, November 2020

    Kansas tax revenue, November 2020

    For November 2020, total Kansas tax revenue was 4.3 percent greater than last November. Over the five months of the current fiscal year, tax revenue rose by 20.6 percent.

    Tax reports from the State of Kansas for November 2020 show tax revenues falling from the previous month, but higher than the same month last year, despite the effects of the response to the pandemic.

    When reporting on Kansas tax collections, the comparison is usually made to the estimated collections. Those estimates were revised in April based on economic conditions affected by the response to the pandemic. To get a feel for the effects of the response to the pandemic, it is best to compare to the same month the prior year.

    (The estimated revenue figures are still important because the state budget is based on them. If the actual revenue is much below the estimated revenue, there may not be enough income to pay expenses.)

    For November 2020, individual income tax collections were $275,431,758, up 9.1 percent from last November. Retail sales tax collections rose by 0.1 percent to $201,705,376. Total tax collections were $556,754,532, up 4.3 percent from the same month last year. A nearby table summarizes.

    For fiscal year 2021, which started on July 1, 2020, total tax collections are up by 20.6 percent over the same period of the previous fiscal year. A large reason for this is the change in tax deadlines from April to July, shifting much revenue from fiscal year 2020 to fiscal year 2021. That hasn’t always been explained, as I show in In Kansas, explanations for tax collections may vary.

    As can be seen in a nearby table, tax revenue for fiscal year 2021 is $582,301,471 greater than at the same time in the previous fiscal year. Of this, $465,061,221, or 79.9 percent, is due to the increase in individual income tax revenue.

    My report on tax revenue for April details some changes made by the estimating group.

    My interactive visualization of Kansas tax revenue has been updated with October data. Click here to use it.

    An example from the visualization illustrates the composition of Kansas tax revenue for the last year. Individual income tax accounted for 50.5 percent of revenue, and retail sales tax 31.5 percent. Together, this is 82.0 percent. Add compensating use tax of 7.0 percent and corporate income tax of 5.6 percent, and that is nearly all — 94.6 percent — of Kansas tax revenue.

    Click for larger.
    Click for larger
  • Updated: Effects of pandemic on employment in states

    Updated: Effects of pandemic on employment in states

    The effects of the response to the pandemic vary widely among the states.

    To learn more and explore the data, visit the interactive visualization at Visualization: Employment in the states.

    This data is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor. Data is current through October 2020.

  • Kansas jobs, October 2020

    Kansas jobs, October 2020

    In Kansas for October 2020, the unemployment rate continued to fall, and both the labor force and the number of jobs rose.

    Data released today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, part of the United States Department of Labor, shows an improving employment picture in Kansas for October 2020.

    (Click charts and tables for larger versions.)

    Using seasonally adjusted data, from September 2020 to October 2020, nonfarm employment in Kansas rose by 7,200 jobs (0.5 percent). Over the year, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs for October 2020 was lower by 53,000 (3.7 percent) over the same month last year. This is using seasonally adjusted data. The non-adjusted figure is 51,200 fewer jobs (3.6 percent).

    Over the year (October 2019 to October 2020), the Kansas labor force rose by 25,594 people (1.7 percent) using seasonally adjusted data, with an increase of 47,123 (3.2 percent) over the last month. Non-seasonal data shows a rise of 25,571 (1.7 percent) in the labor force over the year.

    The Kansas economy had been adding jobs each month since May, but there was a decline in September. The rise in October overcame September’s loss, and there are now 1,300 more jobs than in August. The national economy added jobs, although a small number, and less than previous months since the pandemic started.

    The number of unemployed persons fell from September 2020 to October 2020 by 6,427 (7.4 percent). The unemployment rate was 5.3 percent in October, up 2.2 percentage points from one year ago, and down 0.6 percentage points from last month.

    Comparing Kansas to the nation: Using seasonal data, the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs is 3.73 percent lower than 12 months ago, while nationally, the same statistic is 6.06 percent lower. Non-seasonal data shows the number of Kansas nonfarm jobs is 3.57 percent lower than 12 months ago, while nationally, the same statistic is 5.97 percent lower.

    Click charts and tables for larger versions.

    In the following chart showing job changes from the previous month, the magnitude of the changes in April through August overwhelms the other months. Note the loss of jobs for Kansas in September followed by the rise in October.

    In the following chart of job levels from the same month one year ago, the October figures show the loss of jobs becoming less pronounced for both Kansas and the nation, but the trend towards recovery is slowing.

    In the following chart of unemployment rates, we see that the rate in Kansas is lower than the national rate, both before and after the pandemic.

    In the following chart of changes in the labor force for Kansas and the nation, the labor force has both grown and shrank since the pandemic.

    The June release contained figures for industry groups. The following chart shows the number of employees in October 2019 and October 2020.

    This chart uses the same data, showing the percent change from October 2019. The Leisure and hospitality category is still the lowest, proportionally, followed by Mining and logging and Information. The only industry group to gain employees is Construction, and the gain was small. (Note the horizontal scale is from positive to negative values when moving left to right.)

  • Updated: National employment

    Updated: National employment

    An interactive visualization of employment data, updated through October 2020.

    To learn more about the data and access the visualization, click here.

  • Pandemic’s influence on economy’s path

    Pandemic’s influence on economy’s path

    No matter who is president, a large challenge lies ahead, says the Federal Reserve.

    As we wait to learn who will be our president, economists at the Federal Reserve Bank warn us of the challenges we need to overcome. In a statement released today:

    The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have continued to recover but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year. Weaker demand and earlier declines in oil prices have been holding down consumer price inflation. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

    The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.